Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[ConvergenceZone]

18Z tracks on TD 5 have shifted westward, as expected. New ECMWF moves it toward the south to mid Texas coast next Wed/Thu. With a ridge building over Florida/Georgia by day 5, a WNW track looks likely.

wouldn't it go into Mexico if those tracks verified? or do you expect it to turn a little bit more north which would force it into Texas?

[Mac]

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.

Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

[storms in NC]

NO it is going to Va. LOLOLOL

[Brent]

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.

Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

Yeah... but I don't think this is going to Eastern Cuba either.

[dwg71]

I would say yes (mexico if continued), if this develops and gets a name, the long term set up would be Northern Mexico to Middle TX. I guess we wont know an answer to that any time soon. GFDL has it taking a trip over Cuba, we will see if that pans out. Long way to go and possibilities are vast.

[Tampa_God]

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.

Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

Didn't Eastern Cuba kill Chris?

[Mac]

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.

Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

Yeah... but I don't think this is going to Eastern Cuba either.

Neither do I, Brent. I was just pointing out the difference between the topography of western vs. central vs. eastern Cuba. In fact, I was saying the same thing as you are thinking I believe...that this will likely track over western Cuba, if at all, which should not present any significant problems for the storm.

[Noles2006]

Chris died well before it got to Cuba.

[Canelaw99]

Here's a topographic map of Cuba. If someone could find one that's more detailed or closer, that would be great, but this is the first I could come across online:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/cuba_rel94.pdf

[ConvergenceZone]

It's not in the shear yet.
The shear is still to the west of the storm...and it may continue to move to the west as the storm does. So shear may not even be an issue. It's just to hard to forecast more than 24 hr in advance with any accuracy.

How many times in the past have we had shear destroy storms even though it was "forecasted" not to be there?

but the past does not equate to the future

sorry, couldn't resist...I'm shutting my mouth on predictions for this storm from here on out, because it's going to do what it WANTS to do. It's one of those type of storms.

[wxman57]

wouldn't it go into Mexico if those tracks verified? or do you expect it to turn a little bit more north which would force it into Texas?

Could well go inland as far south as Tampico. I'd pick the area from just north of Tampico to the mid LA coast as my early estimate.

[Steve]

>>Heres what Dr. Jeff Masters about shear with system:

Not the same Dr. Jeff Masters from weather underground who didn't seem any threats for the Gulf this season or espeically August, eh?

>>NO it is going to Va. LOLOLOL

You are loved

Steve

[Air Force Met]

Central to eastern Cuba can kill a storm. It's mountainous there. But not western.

Central Cuba, definitely not sufficient enough.....Eastern Cuba, can maybe down a small, strong tropical storm to a depression, but it's not going to kill a storm. In this sense, see Georges 1998.

Hispanola is the killer, not the other two islands.

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

Uhh...no...that is nonsense. Eastern Cuba doesn't kill storms unless they are really weak and they take a really bad track over it...for a long time. Those mountains will disrupt the flow...and it might take the storm a while to get its act back together...but it won't kill it. The mountains may be 6500 feet tall...but they don't take up a lot of area. The broader low-level circulation survives...and the mid-level circulation survives...
hence the storm survives.

Cuba can cause damage...but it is rarely fatal unless the wrong set-up is present: weak storm...slow moving and due west over the long part of the island.

[gatorcane]

18Z tracks on TD 5 have shifted westward, as expected. New ECMWF moves it toward the south to mid Texas coast next Wed/Thu. With a ridge building over Florida/Georgia by day 5, a WNW track looks likely.

Move the tracks up about 5 degrees....Tracks will change by the weekend. Florida to Texas should watch this storm...even the east coast.

Yep they should shift north as it deepens and wants to move poleward. Florida needs to count on that ridge building. I dont see any evidence of it yet.

[paygal]

Could well go inland as far south as Tampico. I'd pick the area from just north of Tampico to the mid LA coast as my early estimate.

Lovely, this reminds me of Rita. Anywhere from Mexico to Mid LA.

[Blown Away]

I'll buy the S track once the GFDL moves S of Cuba, regardless on how it handled Chris.

[gopherfan21]

Ohhhh, nonsense. Eastern Cuba actually has some pretty high peaks--as high as 6500 feet, as I recall. That's tall enough to tear up ANY hurricane. The terrain in central Cuba is hilly and gets higher as you head east. As powerful as hurricanes are, they are also very fragile when their circulation is disturbed and they start entraining dry air. It doesn't take as much as most people think to knock the stuffing out of a cane.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Uhh...no...that is nonsense. Eastern Cuba doesn't kill storms unless they are really weak and they take a really bad track over it...for a long time. Those mountains will disrupt the flow...and it might take the storm a while to get its act back together...but it won't kill it. The mountains may be 6500 feet tall...but they don't take up a lot of area. The broader low-level circulation survives...and the mid-level circulation survives...
hence the storm survives.

Thank you, AFM

[Blown Away]

Will SFL be in the cone??

[cajungal]

Let's watch Bob Breck New Orleans met and see where his buddy VIPIR takes it. It may take it up the east coast.

[Stormcenter]

wouldn't it go into Mexico if those tracks verified? or do you expect it to turn a little bit more north which would force it into Texas?

Could well go inland as far south as Tampico. I'd pick the area from just north of Tampico to the mid LA coast as my early estimate.

You left a lot of room for error.