TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

jhamps10 · #101 Postby **jhamps10** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:54 am

recon found 38kt flight level winds. they aren't really even into the convection too.

#102 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:55 am

yeah I doubt that is the LLC.....probably closer to the convection.

caneman · #103 Postby **caneman** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:56 am

Sanibel wrote:
Looking at the latest visible loops, I see a small swirl becoming exposed on the NW side of the circulation. It appears to be embedded within a larger circulation that is more or less centered underneath the convection. The system has so far been able to avoid the high shear zone to its west. It will be critical how fast that UL moves to the west, taking the shear with it, whether TD 5 even survives or not, let alone develops further. Right now it's holding its own.

This is important because that swirl is either the LLC outrunning the main convection (weakening) or a satellite vortex. If it is the LLC, the storm is moving more WNW.

Ran a 20 frame water loop and the system appears to be gaining on the ULL. Looks it will start getting hammered towards end of day.

#104 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:58 am

jhamps10 · #105 Postby **jhamps10** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:58 am

using 80%reduction, 30.5 kt's surface wind speed from that 38kt flight level.

Derek Ortt · #106 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:59 am

obs from SA indicate no signs of a surface circulation

recon will confirm if we have a storm or a wave shortly

#107 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:02 pm

I see that low level spin on the NW side that one of the pro mets pointed out earlier. Is it really possible this is performing a Chris? .....being split in two?

Typhoon · #108 Postby **Typhoon** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:02 pm

47 knot FL wind!

#109 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:04 pm

Typhoon wrote:47 knot FL wind!

Find a center and we have Ernesto!!!

#110 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:04 pm

That's 43mph at the surface!

x-y-no · #111 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:05 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:obs from SA indicate no signs of a surface circulation

recon will confirm if we have a storm or a wave shortly

Well, if it's a wave, it's a pretty impressive looking one ...

Eagerly awaiting the arrival of recon in the southern sectors ...

Steve H. · #112 Postby **Steve H.** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:06 pm

Of course that's the LLC that popped out of the western side. There is no LLC under that convection. Could one reform there....yes. Will it.....probably not. This LLC may not be done though. Let's see what the plane finds though.

Website · #113 Postby **Brent** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:obs from SA indicate no signs of a surface circulation

recon will confirm if we have a storm or a wave shortly

It's a pretty impressive wave if it's only a wave.

ConvergenceZone · #114 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:07 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:obs from SA indicate no signs of a surface circulation

recon will confirm if we have a storm or a wave shortly

if that's a wave, then that's the best looking wave in the history of the world!!!

#115 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:07 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Typhoon wrote:47 knot FL wind!

Find a center and we have Ernesto!!!

Looks to me like a vort center is popping out of the convection near 14.2N/67W. We'll see if recon finds another LLC in the convection or if that is what is left of it and we are just seeing a MLC displaced by the shear.

Derek Ortt · #116 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:08 pm

yeah

I was quite surprised at the SA obs

could be just a vigorous MLC, with a possible small LLC or a wave axis

#117 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:08 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Typhoon wrote:47 knot FL wind!

Find a center and we have Ernesto!!!

Looks to me like a vort center is popping out of the convection near 14.2N/67W. We'll see if recon finds another LLC in the convection or if that is what is left of it and we are just seeing a MLC displaced by the shear.

of course it is important to realize that model runs will change once the LLC is finally pinned down.

Currently there is no well-defined LLC...

DESTRUCTION5 · #118 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:08 pm

Brent wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:obs from SA indicate no signs of a surface circulation

recon will confirm if we have a storm or a wave shortly

It's a pretty impressive wave if it's only a wave.

That's no wave...Cof C must be in there somewhere

#119 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:09 pm

Steve H. wrote:Of course that's the LLC that popped out of the western side. There is no LLC under that convection. Could one reform there....yes. Will it.....probably not. This LLC may not be done though. Let's see what the plane finds though.

I didn't see your post before I posted mine...I agree...I think that is what we are seeing....a good MLC with the LLC speeding out from under it due to the shear.

#120 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:10 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Of course that's the LLC that popped out of the western side. There is no LLC under that convection. Could one reform there....yes. Will it.....probably not. This LLC may not be done though. Let's see what the plane finds though.

I didn't see your post before I posted mine...I agree...I think that is what we are seeing....a good MLC with the LLC speeding out from under it due to the shear.

But the LLC is further North than the NHC forecast points show it and NOT moving West but WNW....interesting...

TS Ernesto Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread 6

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