Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[cpdaman]

looks like the convection caught up to the LLC but damn the LLC is RACING WNW

[Bailey1777]

AFM What direction and how fast do you think he is going right now?

[Trugunzn]

looks like the convection is catching back up to the center.

[NESDIS Met]

Yes, the LLC is once again underneath the CDO, of course if it weren't we couldn't call it a CDO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

great quote from the Houston AFD this afternoon:

"FCST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHATEVER BECOMES OF CURRENT TD #5. THIS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH & POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHICH MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON AT THIS POINT. 47"

[storms in NC]

Looking at the vloop it will be north of the forcast path.

[StormWarning1]

Yes, the LLC is once again underneath the CDO, of course if it weren't we couldn't call it a CDO.

Based on this NRL Hi-Res pic I would say it is on the very western edge of the convection, near 14.3 67.6

http://tinyurl.com/qcdk4

Edited by GD to Tinyize the URL

[curtadams]

Mid-level shear has obviously essentially gone away. Upper shear is still distinct and similar to before but not enough to stop strengthening.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

The link is fixed. The forum doesn't like it when the img tag gets on a separate line from the image link. I won't post the image again, but here's the link.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif

By the way, the models you're viewing are various iteration sof the GFDL and GFS, as well as a quite good consensus model - CONU.

Is this a shift east from previous runs? Even a trend maybe? Many of these arent available on the net for general public so I havent seen previous ones other than the Bams and globals.. Should Florida start to watch this?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the vloop it will be north of the forcast path.

I don't think so. It is currently moving a hair north of due west, so this should be following their track perfectly right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Those SST's in the SE Gulf extending north all the way to the coast are running anywhere from 86 to 89 degrees. Good Lord I hope the UL winds are bad!

[Comanche]

$50 bucks the Schmells kid picks his nose.


$50 bucks the models play the West-to-East-to-West flop all weekend.

[ROCK]

great quote from the Houston AFD this afternoon:

"FCST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHATEVER BECOMES OF CURRENT TD #5. THIS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH & POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHICH MODELS CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON AT THIS POINT. 47"

man, that is a great sum up for all to see.....

[Cape Verde]

StormWarning1, you should have tiny url'd that link. It's a mile wide!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember people every time this gets under that Cdo(convectoin) this strengthen+Maintains its self. I'm now feeling like this will likely make it even so its racing right at the tutt. The models show the tutt blowing open pretty fast. Then after that do you remember that loop current we where talking about earlier this season. Because this could go over it.

Winds
Because of the 48 knot flight was a few hours ago...Plus the quickscats had some 40 to 45 knot winds. Plus the system has organized. I think the winds are now at 40 knots.

Now 40 knots
6 45 knots
12 45 knots
24 50 knots(1)
36 60 knots
48 65 knots...
60 65 knots-Western caribbean south of Cuba. HOTTEST WATER there is!
72 70 knots


Tutt weakens in pulls westward way ahead of the system...System possibly getting some tutt support.(Outflow channel)...With weaking upper level shear to 5 to 10 knots over the system. System should enter the gulf in 84 to 96 hours...In which upper level enviroment looks pretty good.

We will see I do this for every hurricane.

[calculatedrisk]

Here is the NHC cone overlayed on the SSTs. Ernesto will be over relatively cooler waters tonight (still plenty warm). After reaching Jamaica, Ernesto will be over 29+ degree water.

See here for Temp chart. Yellow is 27 to 28 degrees. (Yellow on Haiti is a storm watch). Light Orange 28 to 29 degrees.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006236casst.png

[Trugunzn]

Remember people every time this gets under that Cdo(convectoin) this strengthen+Maintains its self. I'm now feeling like this will likely make it even so its racing right at the tutt. The models show the tutt blowing open pretty fast. Then after that do you remember that loop current we where talking about earlier this season. Because this could go over it.

Winds
Because of the 48 knot flight was a few hours ago...Plus the quickscats had some 40 to 45 knot winds. Plus the system has organized. I think the winds are now at 40 knots.

Now 40 knots
6 45 knots
12 45 knots
24 50 knots(1)
36 60 knots
48 65 knots...
60 65 knots-Western caribbean south of Cuba. HOTTEST WATER there is!
72 70 knots


Tutt weakens in pulls westward way ahead of the system...System possibly getting some tutt support.(Outflow channel)...With weaking upper level shear to 5 to 10 knots over the system. System should enter the gulf in 84 to 96 hours...In which upper level enviroment looks pretty good.

We will see I do this for every hurricane.

By the time it gets to the western Carribean or GOM conditions could be almost perfect for a tropical cyclone. I expect rapid intensification if it makes that far.

[Damar91]

Why are the posts so wide?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Caldisk I know. It all has to do is when that tutt backs off...If the tutt got into the right area it could even enhance this system over those waters.

[Comanche]

Why are the posts so wide?

Adjusting for the forecast consensus.?