TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[skysummit]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

Yea.....Louisiana wasn't in the cone either at first for Katrina.

[Furious George]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. I've heard Dr. Neil Frank say storms only stay within the 5 day cone 65% of the time. I don't know if that's correct (it might be more like 80% - perhaps someone with more knowledge can help me out).

One recent example is Rita. It was within the 5 day cone, but reached one of its northern most limits. Just b/c you are not in the cone does not mean it won't affect you.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

usually if you are not in the cone of average error and are 3 days or less away from the storm, you are safe. Yes, there is always a slight chance things can change, but unless a strong trough dives out of nowhere...the FL peninsula looks safe.

[6SpeedTA95]

Thanks,
Some News reports are coming in that gas prices are going up this weekend.

I guess this is slightly off-topic, but oil companies do not set oil or gasoline prices. That's done at the NY Merc exchange by private holders of those seats and whatever the market dictates.

We dread hurricane season. It knocks our production offline, subjects us massive media criticism, and costs us millions and even billions of dollars. We haven't even finished repairs from last year.

So the notion that we're hoping hurricane season will hurt us is an emotional but not rational thought.

We're watching Ernesto primarily because we will have to safely evacuate platform personnel, shut down the facility, and stop all current drilling activity in the Gulf. That's INCREDIBLY costly.

The fact that the company has now extended that kind of preparation to its land based offices only increases the cost to the bottom line.

I'm all in favor of safety and preventing any environmental damage. They may be taking it too far by ordering me out of the office on Tuesday, but I'm the not the CEO.

You work in energy too?

[mtm4319]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Wrong. And Key West (or at least Dry Tortugas) is in the cone anyway.

[bucman1]

as the storm gains lattitude so will the cone,so in all do respect to say Florida is clear is in my opinion very irresponsible!!

[SouthFloridawx]

[img=http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/6933/intensity1ox7.th.png]

[Mac]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

usually if you are not in the cone of average error and are 3 days or less away from the storm, you are safe. Yes, there is always a slight chance things can change, but unless a strong trough dives out of nowhere...the FL peninsula looks safe.

Yeah, it was the "zero chance" affirmation that concerned me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

as the storm gains lattitude so will the cone,so in all do respect to say Florida is clear is in my opinion very irresponsible!!

as the storm gains lattitude so will the cone? Why would they move the cone north if the storm stayed on track?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

usually if you are not in the cone of average error and are 3 days or less away from the storm, you are safe. Yes, there is always a slight chance things can change, but unless a strong trough dives out of nowhere...the FL peninsula looks safe.

Yeah, it was the "zero chance" affirmation that concerned me.

yeah, I think there is more than a ZERO chance. Probably less than 5% though (ATM).

[mtm4319]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

Yea.....Louisiana wasn't in the cone either at first for Katrina.

Yeah, pretty much.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/10.AL1205W5.GIF

[wjs3]

I have a dumb question. When does the diurnal maximum generally occur during the night? I would have thought that it would occur shortly after sunset, but from the comments here that doesn't seem to be the case.

It's not a dumb question. It's actually something that I had to study a bit to understand. It has to do with nocturnal cloud top cooling...cloud tops radiate into the upper atmosphere at night, cooling them. Cooler cloud tops/upper troposphere mean more instability, cooler cloud tops (duh) and more intense convection.

Hop over to the "I have a question" forum and ask again if you want to ask it at a slower pace than this thread.

[PTPatrick]

I think one important thing to remember is what one of the pros poster earlier...MOST models and forecast tracks in the GOM err too far to the Right...that is the storms ALMOST always end up to the right side of the cone. Many a storm has taken a hard right hook at the last minute into the N GOM coast...Lilli, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, Rita, Charley( know, not N GOM)...all ended up right of their forecast "black bold line" 3 days out. Keep this in Mind when it starts to look like another another Houston Landfall...Rita ended up In Cameron.

[Bailey1777]

AFM do you see a weakness down the road or do you think it rides the periph.

[mtm4319]

[img=http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/6933/intensity1ox7.th.png]

Let me help you out with that:



All models now predict intensification into a hurricane, with about half saying major. Earlier (today?), some of them had no further strengthening at all.

[curtadams]

I have a dumb question. When does the diurnal maximum generally occur during the night? I would have thought that it would occur shortly after sunset, but from the comments here that doesn't seem to be the case.

Not dumb. The diurnal maximum over water happens in the wee hours of the night, often just before dawn. I've never seen a verified scientific explanation but my idea is that as the night goes on cloudtops cool by radiation while water maintains its temp by convection with deeper water. Hence more of a temp difference and more convection.

[6SpeedTA95]

[img=http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/6933/intensity1ox7.th.png]

Let me help you out with that:

[img]http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/6933/intensity1ox7.png][/img]

All models now predict intensification into a hurricane, with about half saying major. Earlier (today?), some of them had no further strengthening at all.

:lol:

[cinlfla]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

Incorrect. That merely means that, as presently forecast, FL is not in the cone.

Yea.....Louisiana wasn't in the cone either at first for Katrina.

Yeah, pretty much.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/10.AL1205W5.GIF

I was just thinking about this, it doesn't matter wheather or not we are in the cone at the moment, things change quickly as you can see Katrina proved that.

[sma10]

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

This is what I don't get. If there is so much shear like some of the folks are saying, then why are they forecasting strengthening within the next 24 hours?? I thought the storm would just maintain what it has or slightly weaken. Reading this makes me even more confused than I was before!

This is a classic example of "S2K Overload" -- I suffer from this too sometimes. We get so caught up in everyone's different opinions (both pro mets and amateurs) that we forget one important thing: the NHC forecasters are the preeminent expert and should be the ones we pay closest attention to.

To answer your original question: Why does the NHC forecast additional strengthening in the next 24hrs when many board members do not? Because most likely the board members are wrong.

[Noles2006]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

That's just not true.