T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[Noles2006]

LMAO Wx Warrior...
Future Strength: Cat 1 - 7:5, Cat 2 - 2:1, Cat 3 - 3:1, Cat 4 - 9:2, Cat 5 - 11:1
Landfall: Mexico - 12:1, Texas: 4:1, Louisiana 3:2, Mississippi: 2:1, Alabama: 5:2, Florida: 4:1

[wx247]

I heard "shear is prohibiting strengthening"... not that it is tearing it apart.

[Mac]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.

That's not what she said. I just watched it as well. What she said was that shear is impacting Ernie, but it is not strong enough to break him up. For once, CNN's weather team said something factual.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[JonathanBelles]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.

yes dennis phillips has said the same, but when it gets out of the shear in 24 hrs, he says it should explode. possibly into a cat 3. right now he puts a cat 3 into mobile.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, even if it has lost the LLC, with the great amount of convection it has, when the environment inproves tomorrow, this think can and probably will explode!!! As long as the convection makes it through this toughest part of the shear, it will be just fine...

[jhamps10]

remember, CNN called for rapid intensification last night, I never trust CNN, MSNBC, I only trust Fox part of the time when JB is on. So now they could be saying that it is tearing it apart, but I'm sure that her boss is writing her pink slip for saying that one, as bad as they want a cat 5 into NOLA.

[theworld]

Well it looks like convection just blew up right over or right next to the NHC's advisry position...If its not hard to tell because of the new blow-up, it is because of all that cirrus coming off of the mass of convection

Yes, its blowing up quite a bit right now as the AFM pointed out recently.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[bayoubebe]

I"m sure this is going to sound like a very stupid question to you pros out here, please bare with me:

When I look at the NHC track, the jump from Sunday to Monday in distance SEEMS to be much quicker(ie, the storm is moving faster, gains more distance) than the Saturday to Sunday move.

Does the storm pick up speed at that particular time or am I not reading this correctly?

If it does pick up speed, can someone please explain to me why.

[Extremeweatherguy]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

that link is not the 500 pattern, it is the mslp.

EDIT: NVM, it just changed.

[x-y-no]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.

But ... but ... but ... all evening long last night the "meteorologist" CNN kept going to (thankfully for him I don't recall his name) kept saying Ernesto was heading into an "extremely low-shear environment."

[KFDM Meteorologist]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

Fixed...

[wxman57]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

[Bailey1777]

What does that tell us KFDM?

[Air Force Met]

Clearly. Look at the loop I posted. It's easy to spot under the convection.

That loop nearly kills my PC. I have a higher-resolution and larger McIDAS loop going. I can't verify an LLC near that convection. Certainly there is rotation aloft. What lat/lon would you put the center? I know that even if the pressure is 1002-1004 that there could still be a broad LLC.

It just looks torn apart to me this morning if the LLC is where the NHC put it. If it really is under the convection near 15.6N/70.4W, then that's another story. But that postion would be over 60nm from the NHC estimate.

How often are you getting images? I can't believe you wouldn't be able to see it. The image I have is 1615Z and using the GHCC coord...which can be off...I have 15.2...71.2...roughly.

OK...heading into the office...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

I too think it looks less organized.
But, it's not dying I don't think. Just hit a bit of a roadblock.

[storms in NC]

500 pattern Thurs at 18Z..High now over Texas Got it fixed..LOL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

So what you saying? it is to go northwest or into TX?

[cheezyWXguy]

Its very hard to tell where/if theres a llc underneath all those cirrus clouds...just wait for recon and all your questions will be answered (at least most of them)

[miamicanes177]

deep convection refiring on the west side