Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[quandary]

The eye isn't a clear which is probably why the numbers have gone down a little bit. However, convection is a lot deeper (Wilma-esque), so if it manages to pop out a clean eye with those bands of black, I would say watch out. I wonder why no numbers have even significantly cracked T7.0 yet. I know there are storms, particularly Typhoons, that have in the past. Keep posting Dvorak numbers for Ioke, please, so we can see if any do. In fact, storms like Paka, Ivan, Joan, etc. got somewhere near T8.3 I remember.

[WindRunner]

ADT's down to 6.5.

Code: Select all

   UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                 ADT - Version 7.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  27 AUG 2006    Time :   170000 UTC
      Lat :   16:48:18 N     Lon :  178:35:57 E

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.5 / 916.2mb/127.0kt

     
      6hr-Avg T#  3hr-Avg T#   Adj T#   Raw T#
         6.5         6.5        6.5      6.5

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +2.2mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

 Center Temp : +14.0C    Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   



[WindRunner]

18Z advisory, as monotonous as ever:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 16.9N 178.6E GOOD
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 16.4N 175.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.4N 171.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 301800UTC 17.3N 168.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT


As a note, JTWC/NRL have this at 140kts, 900mb, though I doubt that is very accurate.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agrees it most likely around 910 millibars.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WWPN20 KNES 271711 CCA
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
AUGUST 27 2006 1333Z
.
17.1N 179.1E T7.0/7.0/D0.5/06HRS IOKE (01C)
.
PAST POSITIONS...17.9N 179.0W 27/0000Z VIS/IRDAY
18.9N 177.4W 26/1200Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...CORRECTION FOR POSITION ACCURACY....COLD MEDIUM GREY
SURROUNDS OFF WHITE EYE YIELDING DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT ARE IN
AGREEMENT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 27/2200Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
MERCKLE
.
NNNN


Its a cat5!

[WindRunner]

That's an old one, Matt, from this morning. SSD hasn't made a new one as of yet, although they should within the next hour (by 27/2200Z).

[P.K.]

A quick look at the best track shows this is the strongest storm in the basin since TY Haitang (0505) which reached the same intensity last season. TY Maemi (0314) also reached 105kts, as did TY Faxai (0125). TY Zeb (9810) is the next on the list which peaked at 110kts (900hPa).

[Ptarmigan]

Ioke is just unreal.

Naw, I think Ioke looks like garbage.... C'mon, we see this type of satellite presentation all the time!



Kidding of course -- she's a beaut!

Now, this is impressive! Looks like a perfect hurricane.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 16.7N 178.2E GOOD
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 16.4N 175.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 291800UTC 16.4N 171.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 301800UTC 17.3N 168.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[bostonseminole]

12+ days still showing a Japan hit .. I know is far off

[wxmann_91]

I don't know how many people are watching Ioke, since Ernesto's out there, but take a look at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/loop-ir4.html

Just amazing. Notice how the restriction of outflow/dry air to the north is literally "blown away". That is how a powerful TC can change the environment around it.

I believe it is sub-900 now. Outflow continues to improve and it's just got the STY shape to it, equatorial outflow enhanced by a monsoonal trough, outflow to the north and east enhanced by the TUTT to the north of Hawaii.

Ioke is controlling its environment. It means several things. Most importantly, if it can lose enough latitude (to around 15 N, as I have said), it will NOT recurve as drastically as previous runs advertised, and the GFS is already trending south, originally recurving it, now making it hit Tokyo. The trough which will recurve it HAS to be very STRONG. If it is not, it will only make Ioke gain about 5 degrees of latitude at most.

By no means am I saying it will hit Japan - it's still 2 and a half weeks away from the closest land mass excluding the Marianas and Wake I. But I think the chance at recurvature has decreased somewhat since a few days ago.

This is certainly the most powerful storm I've ever seen in the eastern WPAC. Maybe one of the most powerful ever. (Anybody can find a storm that can match it?)

[whereverwx]

Wow, he looks like your classic super typhoon.

[Epsilon_Fan]

a little asymmetric on the NW side but it is a beauty of a typhoon

[Scorpion]

Imagine it holding Cat 4/5 status for the next 2 weeks. Just incredible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looks to be about 145 knots right now.

[WindRunner]

JMA really going out on a limb . . . not. Steady through T+72.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 16.6N 177.6E GOOD
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 16.4N 174.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 300000UTC 16.6N 170.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 310000UTC 17.5N 167.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT


And PK, do they ever change the forecast/intensity on the 3hr position fixes?

[WindRunner]

And would someone telling me where the JTWC is getting all these models from? I understand the UKMET and JTYM (I assume that's the typhoon model that PK posts), but what about the rest that they are listing in part B?

WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 271200Z AUG TO 011200Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST OF
WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF MIDWAY. THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 01C WILL PASS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF GFDN, NCEP GFS, JTYM, NOGAPS, UKMO EGRR, AND TCLAPS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TCLAPS, WHICH MAINTAINS A CONSTANT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
C. STY 01C WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT THROUGH TAU 72, RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED INTENSITY.
D. CURRENT WIND AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
E. BEYOND TAU 72, STY 01C WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT. INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE INTENSITY BEYOND TAU 96.
LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

[Gorky]

I wonder if Wake Island will be evacuated or not... The airport on the island is maintained by quite a few people, with 124 inhabitants as of July 2002. At a maximum height of 6 metres above sea level I wouldn't feel too comfortable staying.... The models have been pretty consistent in taking the typhoon very close to the island, with the current JTCW being 13 miles North at closest approach. I'd imagine as a former military base, there would be some sort of weather equipment on the atoll, so this would probabyl be our only chance at confirming which agency is right with their pressure predictions.

It feels weird seeing a typhoon on course to hit an island I'm so familiar with from countless hours playing Battlefield 2 on a map of this atoll

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

897 millibars 145 knots is my thinking...

[Coredesat]

And would someone telling me where the JTWC is getting all these models from? I understand the UKMET and JTYM (I assume that's the typhoon model that PK posts), but what about the rest that they are listing in part B?

The JTYM is the JMA's typhoon model. I imagine the rest (except the GFDN, UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS) are in-house restricted-access models.