Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

BOPPA · #101 Postby **BOPPA** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:33 am

This may have been asked before, I have been out all morning.

When will Ernesto be exiting Cuba?

ConvergenceZone · #102 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:34 am

BOPPA wrote:This may have been asked before, I have been out all morning.

When will Ernesto be exiting Cuba?

in less than 2 hours it looks like..A Met said that earlier

Stormavoider · #103 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:34 am

I think now.

bucman1 · #104 Postby **bucman1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:36 am

Not a trained eye,but I just looked at the satallite and it looks like it is getting some momentum going.

jabber · #105 Postby **jabber** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:36 am

To my untrained eyes he is looking pretty bad right now. Also it seems the UUL above him is blowing of the high clouds to the North.

cpdaman · #106 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:36 am

what is the best visual /infared to see this center on the north side of cuba

Sanibel · #107 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:38 am

Later this evening around 7 we should see an attempt at reformation off the coast.

The NW quad is beefing out again in convection (favorable environment, low shear, warm inflow from the Gulf Stream)

Don't misread this folks, the reason the NW quad is reconvecting is because it has just tapped energy out there.

ConvergenceZone · #108 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:38 am

I actually expected this to look ALOT WORSE when it exited the coast. The fact that the convection is so strong is not good news at all. I think Sanibel and others are right. This may intensify quite rapidly soon...

#109 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:39 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:I actually expected this to look ALOT WORSE when it exited the coast. The fact that the convection is so strong is not good news at all. I think Sanibel and others are right. This may intensify quite rapidly soon...

edit

Stormavoider · #110 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:39 am

cpdaman wrote:what is the best visual /infared to see this center on the north side of cuba

I think this one. It is not updating now though.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19.5&lon=-75.5&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

Droop12 · #111 Postby **Droop12** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:39 am

Thats the way it looks, but obviously you never know what these storms will do so just keep an eye on it.

Cat5survivor · #112 Postby **Cat5survivor** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:41 am

Droop12 wrote:THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.

The 11:00 am forecast didn't mention any category. I know it's hard to predict these things but I wish the NHC would stay on one story, I'm in a panic mode already with the 5:00 am forecast. :cry:

#113 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:42 am

looks like Ernesto is starting to slow down...not moving fast at all

robbielyn · #114 Postby **robbielyn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:42 am

It looks like it is just being hung up on those mountains. I feel bad for the people that live there they are going to get a soaking for sure. It doesn't look like its moving too fast at all to me.

#115 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:43 am

he might die there....its creeeeeeping along

Stratosphere747 · #116 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:43 am

Stormavoider -- Try and learn to shorten your links, or try http://www.tinyurl.com

This is a good back up for images.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

BlowMeAway · #117 Postby **BlowMeAway** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:43 am

Dang, now that I'm seeing this thing jumping off the coast of Cuba, I take back what I said earlier. This thing could blow up pretty fast if it gets away from the big island sooner rather than later. But I still think Ernesto is headed up North and won't slam South Florida.

P.S. Sorry for saying ^$##% earlier. I didn't catch the lingo rule. OTOH, I've seen people say "WTF," so they need their potty mouths cleaned out with soap more than I do!

westmoon · #118 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:44 am

Until the storm is back in an area where we can fly through the center again I don't think we be sure what it's doing

ronjon · #119 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:45 am

There is absolutely no way this storm is going out-to-sea over the next 24-36 hrs. High pressure is building at both the low and mid-levels off the east coast of FL. Based on this situation, I would expect more of a W-NW movement over the next day or so.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

westmoon · #120 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 11:47 am

There is absolutely no way this storm is going out-to-sea over the next 24-36 hrs. High pressure is building at both the low and mid-levels off the east coast of FL. Based on this situation, I would expect more of a W-NW movement over the next day or so.

Hate to say it but I agree. Just don't have a good feeling about this one.

Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

That was this morning

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