TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #5

[ronjon]

The storm is starting to pull its act together - tonight may be quite telling regarding both track and intensity. The convection has blown up pretty much near and completely around the presumed center. As far as track goes here's the evidence that it may, stress may, go slightly more west and turn north up into the glades or the SW coast.

1. NHC said that the last 6 hrs the storm was moving slightly left and faster than the forecasted positions. Since 11 AM, 1 deg N, 1.2 deg W.

2. The GFS runs at 12Z and 18Z show the storm entering the SW coast near Cape Sable or Marco Island.

3. The UKMET 12Z and 18Z runs swing the system even further west into the GOM prior to landfall near Port-Charlotte/Ft Myers

4. Assuming the last 6 hr for the next 18 hrs places the center near 24.3N, 80.5W - just south of the middle keys - if it turns N-NW from here, it stays in the GOM until Marco Island

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[Canelaw99]

Max Mayfield was on channel 10. Said they were hoping for it to weaken to a TD, but that it doesn't seem to be doing that. He said there is some banding all the way around the storm. Don Noe asked if people who haven't put up shutters in S. FL should, and he said yes.

Just thought I'd toss that out there.

Interesting....I had to drive from Ft. Lauderdale back home to Homestead this evening and the NHC did not have their shutters up yet.....Not sure when they normally put them up though.

[Buck]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006



...Center of Ernesto still inland over Cuba...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Florida from Vero Beach southward on the East Coast...from
south of Chokoloskee southward on the West Coast...for Lake
Okeechobee...and for all of the Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to
the Dry Tortugas.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Chokoloskee northward
to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from north of Vero Beach to New
Smyrna Beach on the Florida East Coast.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands...the biminis and...Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas...and
Camaguey.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 21.4 north...longitude 77.4 west. This
position is just inland over eastern Cuba...about 30 miles...
45 km...east of Camaguey.

Over the past several hours Ernesto has been moving toward the
west-northwest near 11 mph...19 km/hr. However...a northwestward
motion is expected to resume later tonight...which would take the
center of circulation off the north coast of Cuba into the Atlantic
during the next 6 to 12 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast after the center moves back over
water.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible over
Haiti. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches are expected over eastern Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are expected over
central Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
possible isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through
Wednesday.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...21.4 N...77.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 11 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40
mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[gatorcane]

interesting this the first WNW jog we have seen from Ernesto....very interesting and fortunate that center is still inland.

[rnbaida]

could this think get into the gulf?

[CocoCreek]

Does anybody think their might be a new LLC forming to the NE of the current one that is over land? It doesn't seem like a weak 1007MB LLC over land would continue to be the dominate player when there is some pretty good energy just offshore.

[Wthrman13]

Well, I guess I was way off on my thinking earlier that the center was going to move offshore in the afternoon. I was thinking at the time that the center was trying to reform further north and east than it actually did, and it managed to stay inland.

[Canelaw99]

What is your thinking now wthrman? I don't care whether you're right or not, I just like to see what some of the pro-mets are thinking as things change with storms...

[marcane_1973]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

It looks like a TD not even a storm. Alberto makes Ernesto look like Katrina.

[Brent]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

Agreed. It better get over water really soon or there's going to be no storm. I still think it has potential but not sitting over land...

[tgenius]

This thing looks horrible right now. It will have a very hard time becoming anything higher than a 50mph tropical storm.

Agreed. It better get over water really soon or there's going to be no storm. I still think it has potential but not sitting over land...

And I disagree, I think the mix of Florida Straits SST + Center over ocean + Diurnal Max = very interesting storm in the AM.

[cycloneye]

It has moved more WNW in the past few hours.That is why it has not emerged to the water yet.

[chris_fit]

IMO it's really wanting to explode when it gets into that water.....

[Patrick99]

Yeah, Ernie doesn't seem to have quite enough of a "nose for water" for his own good. Cuba is really the only thing keeping it down right now, IMO.

[ronjon]

interesting this the first WNW jog we have seen from Ernesto....very interesting and fortunate that center is still inland.

Last 3 hrs - 0.1 N, 0.5 W!

[Canelaw99]

I agree - I think he's going to regenerate pretty quickly once he hits that water, he's just not aiming for it quite yet. Will definitely be interesting to watch it as the evening and the night progress....

[Wthrman13]

I see no compelling reason to disagree with the NHC's thinking in their 5 p.m. discussion today. I think it stands a good chance of intensifying at least a modest rate once it finally moves offshore, perhaps making minimal hurricane strength by landfall in S FL. The UL wind environment is pretty favorable. Rapid intensification is not out of the question, but I don't see it as very likely at this point, as the inner core is still pretty disorganized. At any rate, I'm going to be watching with interest tonight. I have an engagement at 8 p.m., then I plan on watching Ernesto for a while.

[gatorcane]

interesting this the first WNW jog we have seen from Ernesto....very interesting and fortunate that center is still inland.

Last 3 hrs - 0.1 N, 0.5 W!

you are witnessing the saving grace for South Florida I think.....and if it doesn't make it over water in the next 6 hours or so....it could be a much weaker situation than originally thought.

[deltadog03]

It has moved more WNW in the past few hours.That is why it has not emerged to the water yet.

Thankyou!!! I have been trying to say this for the past couple of hours. In fact it has almost moved due west for the past 1 or 2. Its moved .1N and .5W since 5pm.

[LeeJet]

It looks like the center is moving back NW, and the center is now very close to the coast:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif