TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[bjackrian]

looks like ole ernesto is becoming a hybrid strom (based on the loop below)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

and i think his motion due north is about to turn north east

and exit between cocoa and fortpierce seems most likely IMO

Stupid question: My understanding of a hybrid storm is that it's a stacked LLC and ULC with a larger windfield than a typical tropical cyclone. Is that accurate? And if so, what am I looking for to see that in the satellite?

Thanks!

[Jim Cantore]

A front dumping a ton of rain and a tropical system following it up, sounds familiar to me.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

All the forecasts have this up to the Great Lakes this weekend.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

I did not think there is still the possibility it stalls off the Atlantic coast. Is there?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Also, the 11PM advisory says 1003mb. Is this not deeper than when it was a TS? Why? I'm not suggesting it is anything other than a TD just curious what causes something like this.

[Wthrman13]

Well, the cloud pattern looks better organized than it did yesterday over water. The additional frictional convergence that occurs over land is a likely culprit. Nevertheless, the increased friction, while it may increase convergence at low levels in the short term and even enhance convection (as it appears to be doing with Ernesto), also means a decrease in the surface winds.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

So there can be enhanced "convection" and an increase in "organization" but as long as it is overland it will weaken as to winds?

[DESTRUCTION5]

What an odd Storm...never wanted to strengthen over 90 degree water...Never really wrapped all the way around whole life THUSFAR and now all the Nasty WX is on the S and W Quads whe nthe NE Quad should be the worst...Baffles me..

[dcuevas]

I give up! I posted this morning I thought there was alot of activity E's SW side. Is it possible for him to strengthen by keeping his foot in water? Is it possible? This may sound stupid but I truly don't know. Thanks in advance.

[TampaFl]

Look out Miami!! A feeder band on the south side of Ernesto is rotating into your area Could be a training event dumping heavy rains. This band extends all the way off the west coast.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

could this storm just stall over the state or off shore

its seems it is moving a little slower again and more off to the north east

how confident is anyone that this thing will actually lift out, could this be in a blocked scenario thru tomorrow

[DESTRUCTION5]

could this storm just stall over the state or off shore

its seems it is moving a little slower again and more off to the north east

how confident is anyone that this thing will actually lift out, could this be in a blocked scenario thru tomorrow

Its movin NNE about 8...no rain in the E Side though...Lots of Dry air intrusion..

[cpdaman]

center looks like it is over the big lake ....hmm.....no it couldn't

[storms in NC]

this is where I think it is at. if so then it will not be long befor it will be off shore again By this evening



[img=http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/8159/e4eq4.th.jpg]

[cinlfla]

center looks like it is over the big lake ....hmm.....no it couldn't

Hmm I just looked and if thats the center then thats over Lake Okeechobee

[SeaBrz_FL]

Just listening to the Seminole County EOC briefing. Florida Power & Light reporting "only" 17,800 coastal residents without power at this time

Cloudy, light rain, and slightly breezy here in Cape Canaveral right now.

[cpdaman]

can any promets let me know if i am on crack

is it me or could this thing be blocked from going up to the carolinas and is there any indications of this being a possibility that u can see this thing kind of stalling off of canaveral

[flhurricaneguy]

Conditions are beggining to get worse here in west palm, the wind is starting to pick up and heavy rain is moving across from time to time.

[storms in NC]

Center is over the lake I think it has picked up some speed

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

[HurricaneHunter914]

Any possibility it will strengthen over the lake?

[cinlfla]

can any promets let me know if i am on crack

is it me or could this thing be blocked from going up to the carolinas and is there any indications of this being a possibility that u can see this thing kind of stalling off of canaveral

Was it forecasted to stall, I must have missed that memo. I hope someone answers your post I would like to know the same thing