Ernesto Remnants

[BUD]

If I had a $100 I bet this winter they upgrade E to a hurricane.

[HurricaneHunter914]

He still looks like a hurricane too. What a beauty.

[krisj]

Wow, and winds are still 60 mph? What time did it make landfall? I was too tired and went to bed early.

[cinlfla]

Wow Ernesto sure looks good. How are you guys up there doing? I hope everyone is OK.

[HURAKAN]

If I had a $100 I bet this winter they upgrade E to a hurricane.

He is already a hurricane, remember that Ernesto reached that intensity south of Haiti.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, and winds are still 60 mph? What time did it make landfall? I was too tired and went to bed early.

11:30 PM EDT Long Beach, NC 70 mph.

[bjackrian]

Is it my imagination, or does the center on IR still look like it's heading NE toward the intersection of VA, NC, and the Chesapeke Bay?

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?northeast&type=ir

[vbhoutex]

I think the clouds are elongating that way, but if you take a real good look at it, the overall motion is due north.

[bjackrian]

I think the clouds are elongating that way, but if you take a real good look at it, the overall motion is due north.

Yeah, that's what it looked like on the radar...I'm just having a hard time matching up what I'm seeing on the IR with what I'm seeing on the radar.

*shrug*

I should probably go get some coffee and wake up more before trying to do this.

[drezee]

Winds last hour:
2-min sustained wind of 47 mph

NORFOLK NAVAL HVY RAIN 73 72 94 NE39G49 29.75F VSB 3/4
LANGLEY AFB HVY RAIN 72 72 100 NE47G58 29.75F VSB 3/4

[cinlfla]

I think the clouds are elongating that way, but if you take a real good look at it, the overall motion is due north.

Yeah, that's what it looked like on the radar...I'm just having a hard time matching up what I'm seeing on the IR with what I'm seeing on the radar.

*shrug*

I should probably go get some coffee and wake up more before trying to do this. :roll:

I'll confirm this I just checked radar and Ernesto is moving north, but when I used the satellite it did look like NE but he's definitely moving North.

[Trugunzn]

If it lasted another 12 hours over water it would of been at least cat 2.

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=YKRV2


winds still 60mph sustained at this station and gust to 76 mph

[Okibeach]

Wow, and winds are still 60 mph? What time did it make landfall? I was too tired and went to bed early.

11:30 PM EDT Long Beach, NC 70 mph.

Quick point of refrence, Long Beach became Oak Island back in 1999, I still cant figue out why they keep calling it that.

[drezee]

Let's see how bold the NHC is at 15z. They want to get rid of Ernesto more than anything. The 12z models were initialized at 35kts when 52 kt sustained winds were being recorded off shore and 50 mph sustained winds onshore (gusts to 76 mph). Currently 2-min winds are still sustained over 50 mph in more than one place. Will they ignore the data and say it is 35 mph or...

Will they say that the strong wind is not a part of the circulation and it due to the pressure gradient...

Let's see...


015
WHXX01 KWBC 011239
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060901 1200 060902 0000 060902 1200 060903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.8N 77.6W 38.7N 77.0W 41.6N 76.2W 44.7N 75.3W
BAMM 35.8N 77.6W 38.1N 77.3W 40.6N 77.2W 43.1N 76.8W
A98E 35.8N 77.6W 38.4N 76.7W 41.2N 75.6W 43.8N 73.2W
LBAR 35.8N 77.6W 38.0N 76.6W 39.5N 75.9W 40.3N 74.1W
SHIP 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 35KTS 29KTS 29KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060903 1200 060904 1200 060905 1200 060906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 47.0N 73.2W 48.5N 63.0W 46.2N 48.9W 43.1N 39.6W
BAMM 45.3N 75.6W 47.3N 70.4W 47.5N 62.5W 49.3N 51.1W
A98E 45.5N 69.3W 45.3N 59.6W 44.1N 47.5W 40.6N 38.4W
LBAR 40.9N 72.9W 42.0N 69.1W 43.0N 62.4W 44.6N 51.9W
SHIP 29KTS 32KTS 47KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.8N LONCUR = 77.6W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[drezee]

Let’s see…I would look for this phrase in some way….


The current winds being experienced offshore are due to the pressure gradient and not indicative of the strength of Ernesto.

[WindRunner]

Definately NOT the pressure gradient, as the high should be causing the increase in winds more on the northern and somewhat western sides of the storm. And it isn't like NHC hasn't account for baroclinic interaction with storms in the past, as well as accounting for winds caused by steep pressure gradients. Andrew was a decent TS with something like 1010mb pressure because of the high pressure around him, so why would this be any different? It should definately be an absolute minimum of 45kts, probably 50kts at 11am. It is probably starting to ET transition somewhat as the windfield appears to be expanding (or it's moving into areas where we have stations anyway) as I can see a report (KWAL on the eastern shore) that is well inland with 35mph winds over 130nm from the center.

Additionaly, a report from a ship at 36.1/73.6 (ZIPR7) had a 58mph wind at 11:50Z, far removed from center to the east.

[Brent]

Down to a TD at 11 and it's the final NHC advisory!

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED
AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hang in there all your Carolinians and Virginians. I'm afraid Ernesto isn't receiving the respect he deserves right now.

Hopefully the flooding will recede quickly and there won't be too many blown down trees. With a lot fo water, it doesn't take winds too too high to bring them down. Sustained Tropical Force winds, which E is certainly producing, will have the same effect.

In his wake, we are receiving very heavy downpours and thunderstorms here in Tampa Bay again today.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm afraid to say that I've heard there has been a fatality in North Carolina