TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Josephine96

#101 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:44 pm

That LBAR run means us in Florida may have to watch it very closely when it gets around 60..
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#102 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:46 pm

the lbar? come on...you know how unreliable that model is...id just wait and see lol
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#103 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:47 pm

True J96, but I wouldnt worry until other models are pointing in the same direction. LBAR is not a greatest of models....
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#104 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:47 pm

TC development chances getting higher.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
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Josephine96

#105 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:49 pm

True.. :wink: Just stating an observation.. We'll wait and see what happens..
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#106 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:49 pm

Florence? 8-)
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#neversummer

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#107 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:51 pm

Come on #6.. Bring on Florence.. Cross another name off the list please.. :wink:
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#108 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:01 pm

Image
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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Josephine96

#109 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:03 pm

Hmm.. so maybe #6 by Monday?
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rnbaida

#110 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:16 pm

Image

Latest models... Why are they showing a NW track??
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#111 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:36 pm

I wouldn't go with that model plot. You have wait until all of the regular dynamic models come in. Most models are junk with maybe 4 that actually mean anything. I don't mind a fish storm as long as it strengthen's to cat 4 or 5 status and is fun to track...

One thing you need to know though is that it's actually abnormal for storms NOT to recurve out to sea when they form this far out. It's ALOT more common they go fish if it's a long tracker like this.There have actually been very few that have made it all the way across the Atlantic, so this is actually quite normal...and THANK GOD for that...I'm glad it's that way. If this wasn't the case, we'd have many more majors every year destroying property and lives.
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#112 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:47 pm

I think they are sensing the weakness in the ridge from the ULT to the north of the system.
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#113 Postby NFLDART » Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:04 pm

maybe multiple players
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#114 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:33 pm

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#115 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:10 am

Image
GFS 00Z :uarrow: :uarrow:
Image
UKMET :uarrow: :uarrow:
Image
CMC :uarrow: :uarrow:

EDIT: Nogaps to CMC as NOGAPS is not out on the FSU site.
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#116 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:23 am

WOW. Nearly all the globals latch onto development of a strong hurricane. Watch this one. I'm expecting development into at least a TS now, and IMO, possibly even stronger.
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#117 Postby clfenwi » Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:52 am

If you've been following the forecasts it's been putting out for 98L, then the 00Z GFDL's track forecast for 90L is unsurprising. The graphic at http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif has updated to include it.

WHXX04 KWBC 030530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 36.0 270./ 5.0
6 12.4 35.7 18./ 8.5
12 13.0 36.6 300./10.1
18 14.2 38.0 311./18.6
24 15.2 39.6 301./18.4
30 15.5 41.1 283./15.0
36 16.3 42.5 299./14.8
42 16.2 43.5 268./10.3
48 16.4 43.7 311./ 1.9
54 17.0 44.0 339./ 7.1
60 17.8 44.1 348./ 7.4
66 18.7 44.5 337./ 9.8
72 19.6 45.1 328./10.5
78 20.3 46.0 309./11.4
84 20.9 46.6 314./ 8.3
90 21.8 47.4 319./11.8
96 22.6 48.5 308./12.8
102 23.4 49.8 299./14.4
108 24.2 51.2 299./15.5
114 24.5 52.8 283./14.3
120 24.8 53.9 283./10.2
126 25.5 54.9 301./11.5
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#118 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:05 am

Image
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#119 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:38 am

SHIPS 95 knots!

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 0600 060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.1N 41.6W 15.2N 43.2W
BAMM 11.9N 38.0W 13.0N 39.9W 14.3N 41.6W 15.5N 43.1W
A98E 11.9N 38.0W 12.4N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W 13.8N 44.3W
LBAR 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.5N 41.8W 16.2N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 0600 060906 0600 060907 0600 060908 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 44.6W 17.2N 47.2W 18.3N 49.9W 19.5N 53.1W
BAMM 16.3N 44.3W 17.2N 46.4W 18.4N 48.8W 20.2N 51.9W
A98E 14.2N 46.6W 14.6N 50.7W 14.4N 54.4W 14.3N 56.7W
LBAR 17.6N 45.8W 20.5N 50.0W 23.5N 55.5W 25.3N 62.9W
SHIP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS
DSHP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#120 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:10 am

Rainbow image with 6z model initial plot:

Image
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