TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- cheezyWXguy
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- SouthFloridawx
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TC development chances getting higher.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif
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- cycloneye
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ConvergenceZone
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I wouldn't go with that model plot. You have wait until all of the regular dynamic models come in. Most models are junk with maybe 4 that actually mean anything. I don't mind a fish storm as long as it strengthen's to cat 4 or 5 status and is fun to track...
One thing you need to know though is that it's actually abnormal for storms NOT to recurve out to sea when they form this far out. It's ALOT more common they go fish if it's a long tracker like this.There have actually been very few that have made it all the way across the Atlantic, so this is actually quite normal...and THANK GOD for that...I'm glad it's that way. If this wasn't the case, we'd have many more majors every year destroying property and lives.
One thing you need to know though is that it's actually abnormal for storms NOT to recurve out to sea when they form this far out. It's ALOT more common they go fish if it's a long tracker like this.There have actually been very few that have made it all the way across the Atlantic, so this is actually quite normal...and THANK GOD for that...I'm glad it's that way. If this wasn't the case, we'd have many more majors every year destroying property and lives.
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- SouthFloridawx
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- SouthFloridawx
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- SouthFloridawx
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If you've been following the forecasts it's been putting out for 98L, then the 00Z GFDL's track forecast for 90L is unsurprising. The graphic at http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif has updated to include it.
WHXX04 KWBC 030530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.6 36.0 270./ 5.0
6 12.4 35.7 18./ 8.5
12 13.0 36.6 300./10.1
18 14.2 38.0 311./18.6
24 15.2 39.6 301./18.4
30 15.5 41.1 283./15.0
36 16.3 42.5 299./14.8
42 16.2 43.5 268./10.3
48 16.4 43.7 311./ 1.9
54 17.0 44.0 339./ 7.1
60 17.8 44.1 348./ 7.4
66 18.7 44.5 337./ 9.8
72 19.6 45.1 328./10.5
78 20.3 46.0 309./11.4
84 20.9 46.6 314./ 8.3
90 21.8 47.4 319./11.8
96 22.6 48.5 308./12.8
102 23.4 49.8 299./14.4
108 24.2 51.2 299./15.5
114 24.5 52.8 283./14.3
120 24.8 53.9 283./10.2
126 25.5 54.9 301./11.5
WHXX04 KWBC 030530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 11.6 36.0 270./ 5.0
6 12.4 35.7 18./ 8.5
12 13.0 36.6 300./10.1
18 14.2 38.0 311./18.6
24 15.2 39.6 301./18.4
30 15.5 41.1 283./15.0
36 16.3 42.5 299./14.8
42 16.2 43.5 268./10.3
48 16.4 43.7 311./ 1.9
54 17.0 44.0 339./ 7.1
60 17.8 44.1 348./ 7.4
66 18.7 44.5 337./ 9.8
72 19.6 45.1 328./10.5
78 20.3 46.0 309./11.4
84 20.9 46.6 314./ 8.3
90 21.8 47.4 319./11.8
96 22.6 48.5 308./12.8
102 23.4 49.8 299./14.4
108 24.2 51.2 299./15.5
114 24.5 52.8 283./14.3
120 24.8 53.9 283./10.2
126 25.5 54.9 301./11.5
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- SouthFloridawx
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- HurricaneMaster_PR
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SHIPS 95 knots!
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 0600 060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.1N 41.6W 15.2N 43.2W
BAMM 11.9N 38.0W 13.0N 39.9W 14.3N 41.6W 15.5N 43.1W
A98E 11.9N 38.0W 12.4N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W 13.8N 44.3W
LBAR 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.5N 41.8W 16.2N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 0600 060906 0600 060907 0600 060908 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 44.6W 17.2N 47.2W 18.3N 49.9W 19.5N 53.1W
BAMM 16.3N 44.3W 17.2N 46.4W 18.4N 48.8W 20.2N 51.9W
A98E 14.2N 46.6W 14.6N 50.7W 14.4N 54.4W 14.3N 56.7W
LBAR 17.6N 45.8W 20.5N 50.0W 23.5N 55.5W 25.3N 62.9W
SHIP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS
DSHP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 0600 060903 1800 060904 0600 060904 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.1N 41.6W 15.2N 43.2W
BAMM 11.9N 38.0W 13.0N 39.9W 14.3N 41.6W 15.5N 43.1W
A98E 11.9N 38.0W 12.4N 40.0W 13.1N 42.1W 13.8N 44.3W
LBAR 11.9N 38.0W 12.9N 39.9W 14.5N 41.8W 16.2N 43.9W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 45KTS 56KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 0600 060906 0600 060907 0600 060908 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 44.6W 17.2N 47.2W 18.3N 49.9W 19.5N 53.1W
BAMM 16.3N 44.3W 17.2N 46.4W 18.4N 48.8W 20.2N 51.9W
A98E 14.2N 46.6W 14.6N 50.7W 14.4N 54.4W 14.3N 56.7W
LBAR 17.6N 45.8W 20.5N 50.0W 23.5N 55.5W 25.3N 62.9W
SHIP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS
DSHP 68KTS 87KTS 94KTS 95KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 38.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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