HH Helene Forecasts

[superfly]

where are you coming up with 120 mph

No data even suggests 100!!! None except for the horribly inaccurate satellite estimates which should be discarded in the presence of ground truth data

I think there was a dropsonde in eyewall with 104 mph winds but nothing close to 120

[Evil Jeremy]

of course my advisories are not going to be exact, but:

1. i like my info to differ from the ones from the NHC
2. Pressures were dropping
3. Eye was getting better.


when i was writing this advisory, I thought that 95KT was a little too low. Also, a 10 MPH diffrence isnt that much anyways! 15 or 20 MPH, is diffrent a diffrent story though.

[Derek Ortt]

you like your info to differ from NHC?

And why would you want this? Just to be different even if there is no reasoning? If so, the product becomes worthless. You should always have a sound reason for your forecast information, be it a science one or a public safety one (such as keeping the winds in a weakening hurricane artificially high in real time so that everyone continues to take the storm seriously)

As for the drop, not sure that that is a sustained wind. The operational procedure is to take 80% of the mean boundary layer wind and use that the represent a 1 minute surface wind

[Evil Jeremy]

i ment that sometimes i disagree with mabey their forecast cones or current intensity! theres nothing wrong with that!

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Helene gaining speed and heading to the NE

Because of its distance from Bermuda and the fact that it is already starting to recurve, the “HHRFC Storm Alert” for Bermuda has been discontinued.

There have been some major changes with Helene over night. For starters, she has begun her northward turn, and is now heading NW at 13 MPH. the speed is expected to pick later today as Helene starts moving more NNW. However, over the last hour or so, Helene has seemed to wobble to the west a little bit.

Another big change with Helene now is its organization. They eye has shrunken and now has convection in it, and over the past 12 hours the convection has been waning. This could be partly due to the shear that the north-western part of the storm is enduring right now.

One of the final Major changes we have made for this advisory is lower the wind speeds. Looking at how the devorak numbers have stayed the same for a while now, and the satellite presentation of Helene is looking ragged, we have lowered the winds to match the ones that the NHC has, which are 110 MPH, although It is possible that Helene is weaker than stated here at this time.

The models continue to agree on the recurve happening before 60W. My new cone for this advisory is more eastward than my previous ones, with Bermuda out of the cone. Once any storm makes a recurve, the forecast cones are always easier to make because the storms really have only one way to go, up! And that is what my new cone does! It takes it NW and NNW for the rest of today, while turning north tomorrow and then NNE and NE for the rest of the cone.

As stated above, we estimate the wind speeds to currently be at 110 MPH. we expect only slight strengthening for the next 12 hours now, followed by gradual weakening. Helene reached its peak yesterday as a 125 MPH hurricane with us, and a 120 MPH hurricane with the NHC.

INITIAL 110 MPH
12HR 115 MPH
24HR 110 MPH
36HR 105 MPH
48HR 100 MPH
72HR 85 MPH
96HR 75 MPH
120HR 65 MPH