Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[Sanibel]

Frank has the correct read on this. A weak circulation east of the sheared center. To me, it looks like dry air is taking it. Another victim of 2006 conditions. EPAC and the west Pacific have the energy now.

[Thunder44]

484
NOUS42 KNHC 111400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 11 OCT 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCT 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-134

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

TPC doesn't seem to think this has an immediate chance of developing since they didn't schedule any flights this morning.

[dixiebreeze]

Dvorak has it listed now:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/1145 UTC 13.0N 59.1W TOO WEAK 90L

[Stormcenter]

wxman_91 you need to also include the possibility of a track into the Western or NW Caribbean as it strengthens and then curves up into the GOM and then NE into South Florida or the West Coast of Florida as a trough comes down.

There is no way it will just scoot all the way into Central America OR if it is a little stronger just miss the US entirely. It's early to speculate but I think we have a player here.

I don't think this will make it into the GOM at all, in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

NT20 KNHC 111529
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES... IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[dixiebreeze]

Luis, do you think this system has a chance? It's looking sort of sketchy at this point.

[cycloneye]

Luis, do you think this system has a chance? It's looking sort of sketchy at this point.

Upper enviroment is not the best as a trough is in the vicinity so it will have a hard time to develop.

Water Vapor Image

[dixiebreeze]

Actually, convection is starting to deepen somewhat right now -- and what is that huge blob N. of PR?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn.jpg

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see nothing coming of this...All I can see are a bunch of negative non-development factors..

[abajan]

So far this morning, some flooding has occurred in a few areas but nothing serious that I'm aware of. A number of schools have been let out early as a precaution, though.

It's dark and cool with light rain at the moment. NICE!

[cycloneye]

So far this morning, some flooding has occurred in a few areas but nothing serious that I'm aware of. A number of schools have been let out early as a precaution, though.

It's dark and cool with light rain at the moment. NICE!

About the winds there at what direction they are blowing and how strong they are?

[caribepr]

Just starting to hear thunder here but it sounds REAL far away. But I watered the gardens so I figure we have a good chance of some rain in a day or so

Hope the flooding stays at the *nothing serious* level...that's usually the biggest fear with this sort of thing for so many.

[craptacular]

The ascending QuikScat pass from 9:41 GMT showed some westerly winds around 12.5N 60W, but did not show any northerly winds to the west to close off a center. There were some 25-30 kt east winds to the northeast. Actually, Barbados was right in the center between the east, west, and south winds.

[cycloneye]

11/1745 UTC 13.6N 59.3W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[dixiebreeze]

AVN and GFDL check in:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[dixiebreeze]

From the 2:05 NHC Discussion:

A large tropical wave is along 60w/61w S of 24n moving W near 10
kt. Earlier Quikscat pass shows evidence of a closed surface
circulation. A 1012 mb low is analyzed near 13.N59.5w on the
1200 UTC map. A cluster of moderate/isolated strong convection
is just E of the weak surface low from 12n-15n between 57w-59w.
The wave is expected to move west-northwestward across the
windward and Leeward Islands into the eastern Caribbean Sea
during the next day or two. Environmental conditions do not
favor significant development of this system which could bring
locally heavy rain and gusty winds to these islands. Barbados
reported heavy rain and sustained winds of 20 kt this morning.
Tropical wave is along 72w S of 20n moving W 10 kt. Broad low
level inverted-v structure is noted on satellite imagery. This
system is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms
over the Lake Maracaibo. Elsewhere isolated showers are found.

[dixiebreeze]

For the mods: does the "closed surface circulation" mean anything interesting? I would think so.

[rockyman]

I think these models are current for 90L:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/op ... tracks.png

[gatorcane]

here we go folks

[cycloneye]

Actually, convection is starting to deepen somewhat right now -- and what is that huge blob N. of PR?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn.jpg

dixie,you asked what was that north of PR?

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N70W THEN CONTINUES S
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 19N-22W BETWEEN 65W-69W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXTENDS SW AFFECTING THE EASTERN PART OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
From 2:05 PM Discussion.