92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

#101 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:40 pm

I just don't see the high shear that he NHC is talking about. True, there are strong westerly winds along the northern Gulf coast but not over the convection near 22N-23N. Tropical storms can form with upper level winds like this. What I cannot understand at all is how 90L is still an invest and this isn't. 90L is in a much higher shear environment and has no convection. Just doesn't make sense. Maybe Jack Bevin has Sunday plans that don't include working? ;-)

A tropical storm cannot form if the NHC ignores it.

It does look like the greatest threat of heavy rain will be into Louisiana rather than Texas, though.

Which disturbance appears better organized, 90L or the system in the Gulf. 90L is under extreme shear, much higher than that over the Gulf:

#102 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just don't see the high shear that he NHC is talking about. True, there are strong westerly winds along the northern Gulf coast but not over the convection near 22N-23N. Tropical storms can form with upper level winds like this. What I cannot understand at all is how 90L is still an invest and this isn't. 90L is in a much higher shear environment and has no convection. Just doesn't make sense. Maybe Jack Bevin has Sunday plans that don't include working? A tropical storm cannot form if the NHC ignores it.

It does look like the greatest threat of heavy rain will be into Louisiana rather than Texas, though.

WxMan I agree. It seems that the NHC wants to ignore this thing. It should be invest by now in my opinion. It also looks like you have changed your forecast to it being more of a LA event now rather than Texas. It does look like it is still caught up in the westerlies. Lets hope the shear stays high or rapid strengthening is likely given the high SSTs in the GOM right now.

#103 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:53 pm

Here's a surface plot. Tampico's pressure (wnw of the low) is down to 1007 mb. Pressure at the buoy east of the low is down 2mb in the past 3 hours. Dew points on the mid TX coast into the low-mid 70s. The front is washing out across the NW Gulf. SSTs in the 82-84F range. Shear is diminishing as the warm front moves inland into south LA tonight.

Extremeweatherguy · #104 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just don't see the high shear that he NHC is talking about. True, there are strong westerly winds along the northern Gulf coast but not over the convection near 22N-23N. Tropical storms can form with upper level winds like this. What I cannot understand at all is how 90L is still an invest and this isn't. 90L is in a much higher shear environment and has no convection. Just doesn't make sense. Maybe Jack Bevin has Sunday plans that don't include working? A tropical storm cannot form if the NHC ignores it.

It does look like the greatest threat of heavy rain will be into Louisiana rather than Texas, though.

Which disturbance appears better organized, 90L or the system in the Gulf. 90L is under extreme shear, much higher than that over the Gulf:

Image clipped

Not if the 18Z NAM is correct: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

#105 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:03 pm

in that NAM what is goin on in the atlantic in the far right of that picture.

Extremeweatherguy · #106 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:05 pm

fact789 wrote:in that NAM what is goin on in the atlantic in the far right of that picture.

that NAM image is showing total precipitation between now and 60 hrs. from now, so there must be a lot of rain that should fall out in that area during that time.

The big thing to notice though is the bullseye of widespread 5-7" of rain in parts of SE Texas from this system.

Stratosphere747 · #107 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:08 pm

And that same map could easily shift east towards Louisiana, with the area being so broad.

Thunder44 · #108 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:09 pm

The system is sheared in that most of the convection is to the north and east of the low center. However it's not that much removed from the center yet and if deep convection persists throughout the night, than I think it will have a better chance of development.

perk · #109 Postby **perk** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:10 pm

Ok now for the million dollar question, where's this system gonna end up.

ROCK · #110 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:13 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:And that same map could easily shift east towards Louisiana, with the area being so broad.

or it could shift west.....

Stratosphere747 · #111 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:19 pm

ROCK wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:And that same map could easily shift east towards Louisiana, with the area being so broad.

or it could shift west.....

Mexico? Possible.....

Lower and Middle Texas coast are already under FFW's....

Unless you are talking tropical formation...

southerngale · #112 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:24 pm

A lot of the rain is moving to the north or NW into southern Texas. NHC said the whole system was nearly stationary....is that still so?

Radar Loop

(not the best radar for details, but I like it for showing the general direction and it covers a large area)

#113 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:39 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:/quote]

Not if the 18Z NAM is correct: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

The NAM/WRF is about the worst model to use in the tropics. I haven't seen it even close to being correct with any system this year or last.

#114 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:42 pm

I have a question. Will this system even have time to form before making "landfall" somewhere on the coast?

Rainband · #115 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:45 pm

according to the satellite the low is over land

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Extremeweatherguy · #116 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 6:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:/quote]

Not if the 18Z NAM is correct: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

The NAM/WRF is about the worst model to use in the tropics. I haven't seen it even close to being correct with any system this year or last.

we arn't just looking at a "tropical" system though. I thought our rain/svr. weather was going to be caused by a number of different things coming together over the area.

wxmann_91 · #117 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:10 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:/quote]

Not if the 18Z NAM is correct: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

The NAM/WRF is about the worst model to use in the tropics. I haven't seen it even close to being correct with any system this year or last.
we arn't just looking at a "tropical" system though. I thought our rain/svr. weather was going to be caused by a number of different things coming together over the area.

The NAM sucks at everything beyond 24 hours. Period.

#118 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:12 pm

The NAM sucks at everything beyond 24 hours. Period.

oooooo

Florida 3
Auburn 3

ROCK · #119 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:19 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:/quote]

Not if the 18Z NAM is correct: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

The NAM/WRF is about the worst model to use in the tropics. I haven't seen it even close to being correct with any system this year or last.
we arn't just looking at a "tropical" system though. I thought our rain/svr. weather was going to be caused by a number of different things coming together over the area.

The NAM sucks at everything beyond 24 hours. Period.

"cough" alberto..... :lol:

Nimbus · #120 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:35 pm

The anticyclone seems to still be centered back near the Mexican coastline. Should get at least one more big convective burst near the coast. Maybe the NHC feels the trough coming in from the west will sweep all this out? Anyone have the surface pressure tendencies?

92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

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