Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

Jim Cantore · #101 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:51 pm

fact789 wrote:
About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year. "

is there no editor?

Yea, thats the number of storms in a season on average, they need a editor that knows the numbers.

If they got hit by 20 a year, nobody would live there.

Ptarmigan · #102 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:08 am

fact789 wrote:"The last time a typhoon this strong struck the Philippines was in December 2004, although in that case, the storm was deflected by a mountain range and casualties were minimal.

Last month, Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing as it ripped through Manila and neighboring provinces.

About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year. "

is there no editor?

That's a lot! I don't think I can take that. :eek:

#103 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:23 am

They count both direct and indirect effects. In terms of direct hits, the Philippines will average 6-10 per year of all intensities (BTW, the quote said typhoons and tropical storms-the average number of typhoons in a given year is about 19 and total warned systems about 31). Indirectly, storms passing near but not directly over the Philippines can cause problems as well by intensifying the monsoonal flow and unleashing flooding rains-this is considered to be an effect of a typhoon by PAGASA. In 1972, the worst floods on record hit Luzon triggered by the monsoon surge caused by the presence of a typhoon that never even direclty approached the island but stayed in the zone where it could affect the monsoon for most of its 26 day life (WPAC record) since it was the pivot storm of a Fujiwhara involving three other typhoons. That storm also was the direct and indirect cause of flooding in Taiwan, China, Korea, and Japan along with the Philippines. BTW, the storm's name was Rita. When you consider direct and indirect effects it is very easy to have 20 storms having an effect on the Philippines in a given year.

Steve

HurricaneBill · #104 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 1:42 am

1970 was a terrible year for the Philippines.

In a period of a few months, the Philippines were struck by 4 super typhoons: Georgia, Joan, Kate, and Patsy.

wxmann_91 · #105 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 2:44 am

IMHO, this is the worst looking 95 kt storm I've ever seen. The inner core was really roughed up by the two 10,000 ft ranges that crisscross northern Luzon. Both JTWC and JMA have really not been spot-on with this storm IMO, both are really conservative (possibly due to the Bebinca bust a few weeks ago). With those 7.5 dvorak sat estimates I really believe it was 150 kt at landfall and now from plain looks has weakened to a minimal typhoon. Again though it's just my amateur opinion.

#106 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 4:44 am

Kate was unusual in that it was a Super when it went ashore near Davao in Mindanao at a very low latitude (below 8N). Patsy peaked at 135kt just before landfall due east of Manila and roared directly over the city-it was a fast mover so the loss in intensity was less than usual. Until Angela in 1995, Patsy was the worst typhoon for Manila on record.

Steve

wc is my initials · #107 Postby **wc is my initials** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:00 am

Can someone post a loop of Cimaron crossing/dying over luzon

#108 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:04 am

This is looking like bad news for central Vietnam. This area will still be clearing up after Xangsane came roaring ashore at the beginning of the month. Forecast to weaken to 75kts before landfall.

Here's latest JMA warning:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 30 Oct 2006
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 17.1N 118.7E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 310900UTC 17.1N 115.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
45HF 010600UTC 16.9N 113.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 020600UTC 17.0N 111.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

#109 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:10 am

http://www.typhoon2000.com has a sat loop of the system crossing Luzon.

Chacor · #110 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:33 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 16.9N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 311200UTC 17.1N 115.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 011200UTC 17.1N 113.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 021200UTC 17.7N 110.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT

Chacor · #111 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:59 am

This is now a VERY HUGE system. Strong convection extends all the way to Taiwan.

Taiwan radar: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/radar/radar.htm

Current conditions across Taiwan: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/real/real.htm Hengchun currently reporting gusts to Beaufort 7.

#112 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 12:59 pm

Typhoon Cimaron kills at least 15
From correspondents in Manila, Philippines

October 31, 2006 12:00

POWERFUL Typhoon Cimaron battered the northern Philippines, killing at least 15 people in a barrage of landslides, uprooted trees and flooding.

Cimaron, the second major typhoon to hit the north in as many months, packed maximum winds of 175km/h and gusts of up to 210km/h when it came ashore.

It originally was forecast to exit the region in the direction of Vietnam later, but forecasters said it slowed down during the day and probably wouldn't clear out of Philippine territory before tomorrow.

Winds had dropped to 120km/h, with gusts up to 150km/h, although forecasters said it was likely to intensify again over open water.

Five people were reported drowned or killed by falling trees and 15 were injured in the coastal town of Dinapigue in Isabela province. Mayor Renato Candido said 90 per cent of the houses were damaged in the town of 5000 residents.

Police in Isabela, about 330km northeast of Manila, also reported a 29-year-old farmer drowned when his boat overturned amid strong currents.

Source:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/s ... 06,00.html

Jim Cantore · #113 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 6:43 pm

I suspect the death toll will continue to rise sadly.

Coredesat · #114 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 7:51 pm

The CDO seems to have reformed:

HurricaneBill · #115 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Mon Oct 30, 2006 10:50 pm

Taiwan is bracing for heavy rains, as is Vietnam. Thailand and Malaysia are as well.

Thailand has been plagued by flooding in recent months, including rain from Xangsane.

#116 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:44 am

Current projections from JMA seem to let Vietnam off the hook and instead Hainan Island is now in the firing line. The winds are forecast to still be 85kts (10 minute average) in 72 hours time which is pretty strong. Hainan Island is easily accessible for me so I'll be keeping a close eye on developments in case of a potential intercept opportunity.
Here's the latest JMA warning:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 31 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 310600UTC 17.8N 116.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM

FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 17.9N 115.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 020600UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 030600UTC 18.4N 113.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT

Chacor · #117 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:35 am

SAB fix:

305
WWPN20 KNES 310911

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 31 2006 0833Z
.
18.0N 116.7E T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...17.3N 117.7E 30/2033Z IRNIGHT
16.8N 118.7E 30/0833Z VIS/IRNIGHT
ADDL POSITIONS...17.9N 116.6E 31/0517Z AMSU 89
17.8N 116.8E 31/0526Z TRMM 85/37
.
REMARKS...EYE HAS BEGUN TO CLOSE OFF IN IR THOUGH IT IS STILL
QUITE RAGGED BOTH IN IR AND MI. STILL VIS PRESENTATION IS BETTER
THAN EIR...DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG FOR AN EYE NO. OF 4.5. NO ADJ
IS ADDED FOR A LG SURROUNDING RING SO CF IS 4.5. WILL ADD .5 FOR
PRONOUNCED AND STEADY STATE BAND IN THE NW QUAD FOR A DT OF 5.0.
MET IS 5.5. PT IS 5.0. FT IS 5.0 BASED ON PT/DT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 31/1600Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP-IMG.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
GALLINA
.
NNNN
=

JTWC fix:

008
TPPN10 PGTW 310905
A. TYPHOON 22W (CIMARON)
B. 31/0830Z
C. 17.9N/7
D. 116.6E/4
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (31/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR LLCC
13A/PBO TCB/ANMTN. AODT: 4.9.
FREDERICKS

JMA 09Z advisory:

WTPQ20 RJTD 310900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 310900UTC 18.0N 116.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 17.9N 115.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 020600UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
69HF 030600UTC 18.4N 113.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =

JMA 06Z prognostic:
WTPQ30 RJTD 310600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0619 CIMARON (0619)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

#118 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:37 am

JTWC WENT BANANAS!!!

ADVISORY #18:

ADVISORY #19:

SIGNIFICANT TRACK SHIFT.

Chacor · #119 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:41 am

Yeah, they've now taken on the track of the JMA. This is good news for Vietnam and Thailand but bad news for China.

#120 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:38 am

It's good that this storm looks to be sparing Vietnam any more destruction. Coastal areas were hit hard by Xangsane and they need all the time they can get to recover.

Doesn't an FI 6 on the JMA scale equal over 90kts (10 min average)?

Typhoon Cimaron in WPAC

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