Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

I'm not too surprised.Its been pretty da**ed warm and steamy in Texas now for the past week.Next week will be no exception.Conditions ae right for something to develope in th GOM.Even if its just a TS,it could do great damage.Remeber Allison in 2003?

This low of cold core origin will not be in the Gulf of Mexico,but off the East Coast of the U.S.

[brunota2003]

Is this it or is it not there yet?

That little blob of lowpressure off of SC that looks completely harmless right now? Yep...thats it...here over the next 24 hours it is going to transform into something...bad...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Whoaa...my bet is we see a strong tropical storm out
of this.
-reduced shear
-hot gulf stream waters
-moisture
= KaBOOM for a warmcore low
I'd say this system hits 70 mph
sustained winds with gusts to 90
mph by thursday or friday

[Opal storm]

I'm not buying into the hype yet, I'll believe it when I see it.

[brunota2003]

I'm not buying into the hype yet, I'll believe it when I see it.

Same, but it is interesting to see the model runs and possiblities into it...Sadly, looks like I'll be dealing with this storm twice, if it does loop back around O.o

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



In this 18z GFS run,this model deepens the low down to 1001 mbs while it moves it slowly towards the coast but does not get more closer.Later in the loop interesting stuff appears in the Caribbean moving northward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I know I've been hyping a lot more than I normally would, but
the environmental conditions are going to be very conducive
for the formation of a potent tropical storm by next week
with low shear, moisture, warm gulf stream waters...the surface
low that forms is going to take advantage of these factors
(moisture, oceanic heat content) and intensify to likely
a potent tropical storm. The global models
back this up with many indicating a 996 mb surface
warm core low which would be a moderate tropical
storm.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We could also see some action in the Caribbean according to the latest GFS run.

[NDG]

We could also see some action in the Caribbean according to the latest GFS run.

The GFS has been insisting in some development in the southcentral Caribbean for the past 10 days or so for the end of next week, but so far no other global model has jumped on board with the GFS, even for the last day or so the GFS has become inconsistant on the formation of an organized low pressure down there, one problem is the very low pressure forming off the SE US coast, which was not forecasted by the GFS until a few days ago, will keep shear high in the caribbean longer through at least the end of next week.

[cpdaman]

boaters in the gulf stream take note all the way down into broward county florida seas are forecast to be 12 to as high as 15 feet in the gulf stream late mon and tuesday

[cycloneye]

A reminder that if and it's a big if,invest 90L pops up for the low pressure,a new thread will be made.

[HURAKAN]

A reminder that if and it's a big if,invest 90L pops up for the low pressure,a new thread will be made.

In tropical meteorology we live of "ifs"!!!

[cycloneye]

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE RGN THIS WEEK BRINGING A VARIETY OF
HAZARDS THE PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING HIGH WINDS...DANGEROUS
SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONTAL CYCLOGENESIS WL OCCUR OFF THE
SC/NC COAST LTE TNGT INTO SUN AS THE SUPPORTING UPR TROF DIGS DOWN
THE ERN SEABOARD AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF JUST E OF CAPE HATTERAS.
THE 05/12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BEING THE ERN MOST
OUTLIER OF THE VARIOUS MODEL PKGS WITH THE ECMWF LOOKING MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS TRACK WOULD RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW
CLOSER TO THE GA/SC COAST WITH THE LOW BEING CNTRD ABT 200 E OF SAV
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST
MANUAL HPC PROGS. OBVIOUSLY THE EVENTUAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM.
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS MODELS
THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION HYBRID...WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY PHASE DIAGRAMS OUT
OF FSU.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php ... =CAEAFDCHS

Above is the discussion from the Charleston NWS office.

[Nimbus]

A retrograding hybrid storm going warm core under that southeastern ridge?

Is this the first actual forecast this year for a warm core system?

[HURAKAN]

NHC 48 hrs:


Low pressure, 1003 mb.

[cpdaman]

water temps off melborne are 79 degrees

also water temps above 77 run from a line about 31n 78 west NE thru 32N 74.5 west which is roughly offshore GA from 100 to 300 miles

then temps 72-76 immediately north and west of that line as well as running about 100 miles south of NC outer banks

[JonathanBelles]

looks like every thing on the IR is moving SE.

[MGC]

A couple of the models at 1800 5/5/07 (NAM, HRW) deepen this low under 990mb. With a ridge over the SE and the low parked over the GS it is possible that a transistion to some type of warm core or hybrid system is possible. Could possibly have a TS or STS next week if the models are right......MGC

[cpdaman]

key west NOAA discussion says a 7 pm quickskat pass showed low pressure developing about 200-250 miles east of south carolina and this low is supposed to move SE to near 31N 71W per sw n atlantic 1130 discussion and then drift westward and strengthen thru mon nite and maintain strength thru early tuesday reaching 31n 74 w then weaken thereaftore and turn "offshore"

to bad the bouy 250 miles east of charleston, sc is " reparied but turned off, and will be turned on when we can work it into the schedule" per NDBC heading sounds laughable 2 me

[NDG]

New 00z GFS run makes it even more complicating, very inconsistant, it now forecasts to retrograde westward a lot faster moving it inland near Charleston S.C. Wednesday morning.