INVEST 92L SE GOM [NRL: 02L.BARRY], waiting for 5 pm NHC

[seaswing]

2 storms for florida so far this year, hopefully not a trend.

If they are week we will take 50 of them.

ain't that the truth!!!

[punkyg]

Awww, look at him. He looks like he's just peeking out from under the clouds. Come on, Barry, don't be shy!

Aw annularcane that sounded so cute!

[Chacor]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Your right, I was looking at a bad satellite loop. The shear over this is around 25-29 knots show it is moving with the shear so far. You would think it would be to unfavorable.

[Downdraft]

I'm surprised Master's got caught surprised. First off the perfect analag for this system is Alberto. When you consider the time of year, the place of formation and the predicted path this storm comes as no surprise to me at all and really shouldn't to anyone else that pays attention to climitology. Facts are facts it is a warm core, closed off surface low with winds above the threshold for naming. 24 hours from Florida landfall the NHC really doesn't have much choice but to name it I think. They can't get the ball rolling in the affected counties until the system is officially on the board. Now that we have a true center I believe more models will fall in line with the ECMWF. Anyone that watches the models closely could see yesterday that it had this system pretty much nailed. I also agree with Jacksonville that the system will not be pure tropical once it starts across Florida. Either way bring on the rain it's much needed and very welcomed.

[caneman]

I'm surprised Master's got caught surprised. First off the perfect analag for this system is Alberto. When you consider the time of year, the place of formation and the predicted path this storm comes as no surprise to me at all and really shouldn't to anyone else that pays attention to climitology. Facts are facts it is a warm core, closed off surface low with winds above the threshold for naming. 24 hours from Florida landfall the NHC really doesn't have much choice but to name it I think. They can't get the ball rolling in the affected counties until the system is officially on the board. Now that we have a true center I believe more models will fall in line with the ECMWF. Anyone that watches the models closely could see yesterday that it had this system pretty much nailed. I also agree with Jacksonville that the system will not be pure tropical once it starts across Florida. Either way bring on the rain it's much needed and very welcomed.

If anyone has the ECMWF model run, please post. Thanks.

[Downdraft]

Your right, I was looking at a bad satellite loop. The shear over this is around 25-29 knots show it is moving with the shear so far. You would think it would be to unfavorable.

We keep calling this shear. How can it be shear when the system is moving in the same direction? If anything you'd think it would ventilate the system not cut it up.

[artist]

anyone heard from Derek Ortt? Wonder what his thoughts are on this?

[caneman]

Your right, I was looking at a bad satellite loop. The shear over this is around 25-29 knots show it is moving with the shear so far. You would think it would be to unfavorable.

We keep calling this shear. How can it be shear when the system is moving in the same direction? If anything you'd think it would ventilate the system not cut it up.

I agree. It is moving with the shear so certainly that would cut down on shear and helps ventilate. This is as good as it gets climatologically speaking. I'm surprised more experts didn't pick up on this.

[ncupsscweather]

Local Met up here in NC, Eric Thomas said that there is a 95% chance that they will name this at 5pm as Tropical Storm Barry.

[littlevince]

Barbara: Hi Barry !


http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 0.250m.jpg

[feederband]

Local Met up here in NC, Eric Thomas said that there is a 95% chance that they will name this at 5pm as Tropical Storm Barry.

I wonder why there is a 5% chance it won't be?

[tallywx]

He should've gone all the way and called it 100% chance. I don't ever recall a time that NRL named something only to have the NHC not follow.

[Chacor]

He should've gone all the way and called it 100% chance. I don't ever recall a time that NRL named something only to have the NHC not follow.

2005, 16E.PILAR went up on NRL. Didn't happen, 16E never made it to TS.

[Janie2006]

There isn't much doubt in my mind about it.

[loro-rojo]

The local metereologist here in Miami's WSVN channel 7 just said that this system has some chance to develope into a tropical system. Also, someone right after started reporting live from the NHC and made very little mention of the storm. Only said that "they are keeping an eye out for it". I was kinda hopping they would be able to tell us if it was Barry or not.

[Janie2006]

They are waiting to see what NHC does with it.

[sevenleft]

The local metereologist here in Miami's WSVN channel 7 just said that this system has some chance to develope into a tropical system. Also, someone right after started reporting live from the NHC and made very little mention of the storm. Only said that "they are keeping an eye out for it". I was kinda hopping they would be able to tell us if it was Barry or not.

It is Barry. There is no question about that.

[hawkeh]

Hello Barry

[WeatherEmperor]

They are waiting to see what NHC does with it.

You are refering to the WSVN channel 7 right?

<RICKY>