South Caribbean firing

[hial2]

thanks ronjon! The ponds were starting to get dry as a bone again
and the grass is orange in good chunks of the yard...
but that prospect for rain is awesome!!!!

Your grass is ORANGE colored??...Wow

[HURAKAN]

Showing some patriotism!!! Orange represents Florida's state fruit!!!

[ronjon]

TBH, the rains have come for some in our state - I linked the weeky rainfall over FL. As you know, the coastal counties have been left out in west-central FL. However, inland, quite like today, they have been receiving some nice totals post-barry.

http://www.intellicast.com/Weather/Prec ... n=USFL0438

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

haha...orange...ok not orange but that really dry dead color
that grass sometimes shows...
oh yes and all the rain has concentrated inland this week...
hopefully the bermuda high and SE flow pushes
some rain back toward our coast

[JonathanBelles]

My yard in some spots looks orange too.

[windstorm99]

8:05PM-NHC Discussion

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS NEAR THE WAVE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AN THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W.
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am very confused by the models which keep pointing to development
when none is imminent...ah well...that's why I'm an amateur.

[Air Force Met]

8:05PM-NHC Discussion

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S OF 16N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DEPICT LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS NEAR THE WAVE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AN THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR JAMAICA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. A SIMILAR CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 76W-78W.
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW SW OF CUBA.

Hmmm...they must have read my post from this afternoon...

There is a weak wave being enhanced by a lot of divergence aloft because of the upper low. There is nothing at the surface that, if the divergence was absent, would cause the convection to sustain itself and develop.

[wxmann_91]

For a straight week or so the NAM forecasted Barry to form in the 72-84 hour time frame. The problem is that when it first said that low would form was about a week before it actually did...a forecast of action vs. time...with no time constraints everything can verify in theory.

Given the NAM's ability to spuriously develop TC's, sure, it is feasible that it picked it up first. But the question is, how can one tell between the 99% of spurious TC's and the one real one? One good forecast does not make the model any better if it releases 99 bad ones. So I just tend to discard it. In this case, examining satellite loops, it is clear that, as AFM and the NHC have already stated, an ULL diving SW is enhancing upper diffluence across the area, thus the sheared thunderstorms.

(note that I'm not accusing you of ever believing in this model, it's just that some associate "hey it verified once" to "hey it's a good model")

[Air Force Met]

For a straight week or so the NAM forecasted Barry to form in the 72-84 hour time frame. The problem is that when it first said that low would form was about a week before it actually did...a forecast of action vs. time...with no time constraints everything can verify in theory.

Given the NAM's ability to spuriously develop TC's, sure, it is feasible that it picked it up first. But the question is, how can one tell between the 99% of spurious TC's and the one real one? One good forecast does not make the model any better if it releases 99 bad ones. So I just tend to discard it. In this case, examining satellite loops, it is clear that, as AFM and the NHC have already stated, an ULL diving SW is enhancing upper diffluence across the area, thus the sheared thunderstorms.

(note that I'm not accusing you of ever believing in this model, it's just that some associate "hey it verified once" to "hey it's a good model")

When thinking about the NAM and forecasting tropical development...the phrase "even a broke clock is right twice a day" come to mind. It is right every once in a while...but it is wrong so much more...how can you trust it? The problem is...people SO OFTEN forget failures when the blind squirrel finds an acorn. It is especially bad when people want to see it...they will look for anything.

[Stratosphere747]

57 made a great thread with respect to models. I'm to impatient to look it up, but the new folks might get something out of it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It appears that shear over the carribean should
prevent development for at least the next 2-5 days.

Also, the GOM is very dry.

These conditions are typical for early June.

Nothing out of the ordinary.

[weatherwindow]

What does all this mean for Key West this week? My mom is coming down to visit - I hope its not a rainy week

....good morning beach, looks fairly dry, below climo, isolated(read just the "regular" stuff) thru wed....thursday, fri and the weekend: just a bit more forcing from a week trough dropping south over the mainland...but still only in the scattered category....hope your parents enjoy the rock ........rich

[southerngale]

From the LCH NWS for Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

<snippet>
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THEY MAY BECOME ACTIVE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM
OUT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND BRINGS IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. SINCE THIS IS PAST DAY 7 MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO HEAD TOWARDS US EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
A CONTINUED WARM AND WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP.

[hial2]

My yard in some spots looks orange too.

First,the "cone of hurricane protection'" over Tampa-St Pete..then, the Bucs "football" team..now orange colored grass...yup, something weird is a-goin on in them there parts!!///

[Beach0612]

Thank you Rich! Lets hope it stays "tropically quiet" all season here!

[tailgater]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
The area near the Houndras is starting to get my interest. Lots of lift and moisture.

[drezee]

For a straight week or so the NAM forecasted Barry to form in the 72-84 hour time frame. The problem is that when it first said that low would form was about a week before it actually did...a forecast of action vs. time...with no time constraints everything can verify in theory.

Given the NAM's ability to spuriously develop TC's, sure, it is feasible that it picked it up first. But the question is, how can one tell between the 99% of spurious TC's and the one real one? One good forecast does not make the model any better if it releases 99 bad ones. So I just tend to discard it. In this case, examining satellite loops, it is clear that, as AFM and the NHC have already stated, an ULL diving SW is enhancing upper diffluence across the area, thus the sheared thunderstorms.

(note that I'm not accusing you of ever believing in this model, it's just that some associate "hey it verified once" to "hey it's a good model")

Agreed, my point was just that. It said it would form on monday (3 day forecast) and it happended 6 days later not in the spot that it said it would and somehow it was looked upon as verifying.

[Sjones]

From the LCH NWS for Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

<snippet>
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS AS THEY MAY BECOME ACTIVE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A WEAK SYSTEM
OUT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND BRINGS IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. SINCE THIS IS PAST DAY 7 MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO HEAD TOWARDS US EARLY NEXT WEEK SO
A CONTINUED WARM AND WET PATTERN APPEARS TO BE ON TAP.

Looks like BB's prediction is in the making...

[caneman]

Looks like the ULL is lifting out and flatning out. Nothing at the surface but ??????? Who knows in a couple days. Will have to see if it persist.