Hyperstorm wrote:Just because a disturbance loses some convection for a while doesn't mean it's dead or that the chances of development have greatly diminished. Yesterday, many were excited about the possibility of development. Now today, we're seeing complete negativism among most. Come on, people...remember how the tropics can change in an instant. They've done it before!
I'm currently seeing a disturbance that has all the potential to become a player during the next few days. In fact, latest satellite images do indicate popcorn-type convection firing up just to the S of Isla Juventud. This system does have the look of one that wants to separate from the trough to the NE and be "left behind". This is a scenario that is typically quite favorable for development as these types of systems tend to find better upper-levels as the trough pulls away. There also seems to be some kind of mid-level twisting to the S and SW of Isla Juventud, which is definitely sparking my interest.
I do expect the recon mission today to be cancelled, but don't be surprised if it's re-scheduled for tomorrow afternoon, as it appears that the upper-levels will continue to become more favorable over the next 24-36 hours. It seems like the pieces are coming together for a low pressure center to form rather soon. Keep an eye on it...
I'm not trying to be negative, just trying to be realistic. The whole area has gotten very disorganized over the past 24 hours. Models are no longer developing anything. Most of the low-level energy is in the far NW Caribbean (north of 20n).. and is only moving northward as that old frontal boundary heads toward Florida. It doesn't seem like a good environment to me... and all of the models in unison are moving the disturbance northward into the higher shear. I don't see anything I really like in terms of enhanced changes of genesis...
