will we have an invest 96L soon?

Aric Dunn · #101 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:45 pm

the wave coming off coming off africa looks fairly strong for this time of year again .. that one will also probably be something interesting to watch.. but yeah its still june .. so anything that does emerge need to hold together first

Cyclone1 · #102 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:52 pm

It's July.... :eek:

alan1961 · #103 Postby **alan1961** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 4:57 pm

jaxfladude wrote::flag:
One thing is known for sure the good old USA turns 231 years old on the 4th of July.....

and i'll be raising a Beer Mug to that Jax in Merry old England :wink:

cheezyWXguy · #104 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:00 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:the wave coming off coming off africa looks fairly strong for this time of year again .. that one will also probably be something interesting to watch.. but yeah its still june .. so anything that does emerge need to hold together first

Shear is also very strong on on that wave, so it is unlikely to do much, at least right now, and chances are when it fully moves off the african coast, it will just flare down

Aric Dunn · #105 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:02 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the wave coming off coming off africa looks fairly strong for this time of year again .. that one will also probably be something interesting to watch.. but yeah its still june .. so anything that does emerge need to hold together first

Shear is also very strong on on that wave, so it is unlikely to do much, at least right now, and chances are when it fully moves off the african coast, it will just flare down

would not doubt it.. still as strong wave this time of year//

Aric Dunn · #106 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:03 pm

as for the system that may become 96 . .the shear is light all the way till the islands

Cyclone1 · #107 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:11 pm

Wow, sheer looks great! I could definately see this forming. Err... Being declared a tropical cyclone. :wink:

Nimbus · #108 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:12 pm

Maybe this thread will get renamed tomorrow, looks more interesting than the ship reports i've been watching.

We have low shear, warm water, a well defined wave that is not moving too fast. The only negative I saw was a slightly dry environment.

Aric Dunn · #109 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:15 pm

Nimbus wrote:Maybe this thread will get renamed tomorrow, looks more interesting than the ship reports i've been watching.

We have low shear, warm water, a well defined wave that is not moving too fast. The only negative I saw was a slightly dry environment.

and dont forget the main inhibiting factor.. being attached to the ITCZ

#110 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:30 pm

jaxfladude wrote::flag:
One thing is known for sure the good old USA turns 231 years old on the 4th of July.....

Hope everyone in the USA has a Safe and Great 4th of July Celebration

CourierPR · #111 Postby **CourierPR** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:48 pm

Hey, cheezy, the wave is now in the open ocean and well off the African coast.

Cyclone1 · #112 Postby **Cyclone1** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:52 pm

CourierPR wrote:Hey, cheezy, the wave is now in the open ocean and well off the African coast.

Ehh, it'll most likely burn out before it gets to the CV islands. Though I've been wrong before.

cheezyWXguy · #113 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:56 pm

CourierPR wrote:Hey, cheezy, the wave is now in the open ocean and well off the African coast.

I dont think itll last long...the wave near africa is under nearly 40kt shear...whether the convection stays intact or not, it will not develop underneath that shear

#114 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:10 pm

Banding is more evident now. It'll be interesting to see if this continues to develop over the next couple of days.

#115 Postby **pojo** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:29 pm

Our ARWOs are watching this system for POSSIBLE development... HOWEVER, the African Dust levels are high meaning non favorable for development.

We will not fly systems unless they are west of 50W.

jrod · #116 Postby **jrod** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:33 pm

This looks worse now than yesterday in my eyes. It still has some spin though. This and the low that was popping up on some models is it for the Atlantic. It is pretty quiet, seems rather typical for this time of the year.

#117 Postby **windstorm99** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:35 pm

Not much talk from the NHC on the 8:05 discussion...

#118 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:36 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Not much talk from the NHC on the 8:05 discussion...

But you didn't post the link or a cut and paste of it.

#119 Postby **windstorm99** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:
windstorm99 wrote:Not much talk from the NHC on the 8:05 discussion...

But you didn't post the link or a cut and paste of it.

There was not much on it as convection is very limited and still remains rather disorganized.Its got to gain some latitude for sure or it will run into land.

Not much convection on IR imagery...

#120 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 02, 2007 6:44 pm

The only mention of the weak low is in the ITCZ section of the discussion,not a good sign being mentioned in the ITCZ paragrafh.

THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N23W 9N32W 7N59W. A BROAD
1014 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8.5N35.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 14W-21W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 35W-43W.

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