Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

meteorologyman · #101 Postby **meteorologyman** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:50 pm

We may get new info from NHC at 2:00pm That generally how thet do it in 3hour intervals
2am 5am 8am 11am 2pm 5pm 8pm 11pm 2pm ................

x-y-no · #102 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:i would expect something north of the islands .. rather in the carrib..

Hopefully so. Anything developing up there will recurve offshore.

#103 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:55 pm

Flash Flood Watch for all of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

:uarrow:

As I said in this thread,I will report any important events related to this as it's pouring now where I am in San Juan.

x-y-no · #104 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:05 pm

Stay dry, Luis! :-)

#105 Postby **windstorm99** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:25 pm

NHC 2:05PM Discussion....

EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 21N64W
12N66W 4N66W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS IS ANOTHER BROAD WAVE WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
61W-64W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 58W-70W.

jrod · #106 Postby **jrod** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:26 pm

There is some decent outflow. This is the first time in a while the NHC mentioned anything on their discussion. I dont think this one will go poof any time soon.

Aric Dunn · #107 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:29 pm

just remember this .. anytime you feel as though you think 2005 is starting to fade away..

and remember when you look at all the blobs this year.. that you just never know including this present.. area ..near PR

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a0 ... _30fps.mp4

Aric Dunn · #108 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:35 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... 16vis.html

Aric Dunn · #109 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:46 pm

punkyg · #110 Postby **punkyg** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:48 pm

The convection is gonna die down like it did yesterday.
I just don't think its gonna develop unless it continues to fire up more convection
overnight and forms a sfc low.

aw shoot who listens to me i really don't care if it don't develop.

chadtm80 · #111 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:49 pm

Normandy wrote:Sorry, just dont see what the big deal is. Looks awful to me.

Not a big deal.. Just the only thing going right now. As far as how it looks.. i agree with you. But remember it is just a wave. Systems dont start out as anything more :-)

Again. they are just watching it because.. well.. what else are they going to do? lol

#112 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:51 pm

I think most of the attenion is north of here but little something to watch @11.5N 66 W.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_carib.gif

#113 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:55 pm

nice Loop AD 8-)

Aric Dunn · #114 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:57 pm

tailgater wrote:nice Loop AD

its great so glad i found it.. cause its really hard to find microwaves images.. and even harder to find good TPW (total precipitable water) would have help with what was it 96L a few weeks ago with all the dry air...

Aric Dunn · #115 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:59 pm

by the way.. im not sure if everyone knows about this loop... but its not a Floater..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

Nimbus · #116 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:00 pm

Looks like the cloud tops are getting sheared off to the north. Clear little circulation hook in the sheared upper level clouds as well.

Aric Dunn · #117 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:08 pm

Nimbus wrote:Looks like the cloud tops are getting sheared off to the north. Clear little circulation hook in the sheared upper level clouds as well.

PR radar.. show a little more curvature.... of north of the island...

Aric Dunn · #118 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:18 pm

I have a question.... if i have a bunch of images.... and i want to make animation.. how would i do it,,, what program etc... i want to make a animation of some radar images..

Berwick Bay · #119 Postby **Berwick Bay** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:30 pm

Boca posted
I think this tropical wave SE of PR might clip us here in South Florida, unlike the one last week that went south of us.Hey Berwick 21N 79W is only 300 miles from us.
___________________________________________________
Your right, that point is pretty close to S Fl. Obviously, I'm no met, but I'm still looking at that point as perhaps the best possibility for cyclogenesis. Not the NW Carib, but east of there in the W-Central Carib, just south of the central Cuban coast. I had stated a timeframe of July 26-29, but perhaps this system will jump the gun by three days or so. In any case, I think we will have other possibilities for development as stronger waves coming out of the open Atlantic approach the 21N 79W area. My focus is going to be at this location for the rest of July.

#120 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 19, 2007 2:34 pm

Latest IR pic......its pretty obvious something is trying to get going down there. You don't normally see that kind of convection even with the average wave.

Hopefully IF something forms it will form north of the islands and recurve (and spare the islands)...I don't like the looks of this thing :eek:

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