Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[Weatherfreak14]

Uh oh the latest 18UTC GFS Models actually has this wave developing and getting very close to the US before turning out to sea. Wow this could be the first big storm of the season and this could make it all the way to the US, something to watch closely as the GFS is trying to devlop this system. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

[skysummit]

I was just sitting here in my hotel room looking at that wave, telling myself there's "something" about it. It still does show cyclonic turning even though the NHC dropped the low from it earlier today. Still lots of dry air near it though.

[Cyclone1]

Good, glad to see I'm not the only who see's that "something." This is definitley the one to watch.

[Weatherfreak14]

Good, glad to see I'm not the only who see's that "something." This is definitley the one to watch.

I have a strong feeling that this wave wont look that innocent in a week or so, just by the model shows it. kinda scary but yet exciting to see our possible first hurricane of the season and hopefully be a fish.

[skysummit]

I was just sitting here in my hotel room looking at that wave, telling myself there's "something" about it. It still does show cyclonic turning even though the NHC dropped the low from it earlier today. Still lots of dry air near it though.

Actually, it looks to be in a nice envelope of moisture. Maybe it'll stay in tack long enough to be a player in a few days.

[cheezyWXguy]

Uh oh the latest 18UTC GFS Models actually has this wave developing and getting very close to the US before turning out to sea. Wow this could be the first big storm of the season and this could make it all the way to the US, something to watch closely as the GFS is trying to devlop this system. [url]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_s_loop.shtml
[/url]

haha...I found this a little ironic because If that is the date in the top left corner of that image that says 070731, and the storm closes off a low and becomes a TD on that day, it would be 3 years to the day that hurricane alex formed in 2004

[Cyclone1]

Wow, I just looked at the GFS model, and that is the longest period of time it has held on to a single wave this year. This could potentially be a threat. But, I'm still waiting on model agreement before I totally buy this.

[cheezyWXguy]

Actually, Im not sure if this big wave is the one its developing, but instead its the smaller and more southerly wave...i dont know though. It seems as though the remnants of yesterday's surface low are already passing 30W, but the GFS forms this low before 30W. However, it also starts as a broad circulation, as opposed to a smaller circulation further south, so it's anyones guess.

If im correct, the remnants of the surface low at are about 15N30W, but the smaller wave behind it is about 10N, 20W.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... entir.html

Here is a more current image in color IR
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[Cyclone1]

It's all one big wave family. All I know is it's developing something. Which wave isn;t really important at the moment.

[clfenwi]

Interesting (though note the low confidence) tidbit from the CPC's global hazards briefing (PDF):

6. Conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the tropical
Atlantic. Tropical waves moving off the African coast will have increasing potential for development into tropical cyclones
over the central tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear is expected to be less than it has been thus far and disturbances more
vigorous due to increasing African rainfall. Also, numerical model guidance indicates tropical cyclone development later in the
period.
Confidence: Low

[Thunder44]

Uh oh the latest 18UTC GFS Models actually has this wave developing and getting very close to the US before turning out to sea. Wow this could be the first big storm of the season and this could make it all the way to the US, something to watch closely as the GFS is trying to devlop this system. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

This wave looks like it has fallen apart from yesterday, and the long-range GFS forecasts are not reliable in the tropical atlantic, especially the 18z run.

[AnnularCane]

Interesting (though note the low confidence) tidbit from the CPC's global hazards briefing (PDF):

6. Conditions are slowly becoming more favorable for tropical cyclone development in the tropical
Atlantic. Tropical waves moving off the African coast will have increasing potential for development into tropical cyclones
over the central tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear is expected to be less than it has been thus far and disturbances more
vigorous due to increasing African rainfall. Also, numerical model guidance indicates tropical cyclone development later in the
period.
Confidence: Low

Well, it will be getting into August by then, so it's not that far-fetched.

Hey, it's gotta happen sometime, right?

[cycloneye]

the smaller wave behind it is about 10N, 20W

Steve Lyons referred about this little area as "What is this"?

[DESTRUCTION5]

the smaller wave behind it is about 10N, 20W

Steve Lyons referred about this little area as "What is this"?

He called it a "seedling"..LOL

[Aric Dunn]

Uh oh the latest 18UTC GFS Models actually has this wave developing and getting very close to the US before turning out to sea. Wow this could be the first big storm of the season and this could make it all the way to the US, something to watch closely as the GFS is trying to devlop this system. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

This wave looks like it has fallen apart from yesterday, and the long-range GFS forecasts are not reliable in the tropical atlantic, especially the 18z run.

3


this gfs has been developing that area.. for nearly two days.. on almost every run.. its not just now.. on the 18z

[Cyclone1]

the smaller wave behind it is about 10N, 20W

Steve Lyons referred about this little area as "What is this"?

He called it a "seedling"..LOL

LOL good ol' Stevie. XD

[Derek Ortt]

shakes head at using a 10 day GFS forecast as anything other than entertainment

[Aric Dunn]

you know what.. i did not even notice that was 174 hours.. i though it was the low the gfs was trying to do something with in a few days.. nevermind..

but i do like what happening in the east atlantic. right now

[Weatherfreak14]

shakes head at using a 10 day GFS forecast as anything other than entertainment

Actually the models develops it lot sooner than 174 hrs. It devlops it around 96hrs.

[canegrl04]

I thought we were still talking about the big wave of the last few days Oh well. Lets see if the wave behind it can develope into something more