Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[skysummit]

Another outflow boundary crossing buoy 42055? Winds were out of the east, now they're out of the south at 34mph gusting to 40mph...pressure, 1013.6mb.

[xironman]

I am using this thread to keep the two closely related systems separate. If you zoom in to about 21N 88W at the end of the Yucatan, you can see a little swirl in this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html. Void of convection about to go back over the gulf. This would be consistent with pressure rises to the south.

[Aric Dunn]

I am using this thread to keep the two closely related systems separate. If you zoom in to about 21N 88W at the end of the Yucatan, you can see a little swirl in this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html. Void of convection about to go back over the gulf. This would be consistent with pressure rises to the south.

thats a mid level circ.. its not at the surface

[Air Force Met]

I am using this thread to keep the two closely related systems separate. If you zoom in to about 21N 88W at the end of the Yucatan, you can see a little swirl in this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html. Void of convection about to go back over the gulf. This would be consistent with pressure rises to the south.

Here's a little better look at the feature:
Hi-Res Vis Loop

[Normandy]

Nice little MLC over the GOM, gotta watch to see if convection refires around it...if so it has plenty of time to become a tropical cyclone (but not a potent one)....but itll do its damage regardless of it becoming a TD or not....its going to hammer the upper texas coast with rain and more rain, and it along with the ULL should coincide to dump 5-10 easy on the upper texas coast.

Im a little more worried about the wave behind it, as it seems to have the upper anticyclone right over it.

[Air Force Met]

Nice little MLC over the GOM, gotta watch to see if convection refires around it...if so it has plenty of time to become a tropical cyclone (but not a potent one)....but itll do its damage regardless of it becoming a TD or not....its going to hammer the upper texas coast with rain and more rain, and it along with the ULL should coincide to dump 5-10 easy on the upper texas coast.

This is my thinking. It has time. We are in for some rain and the winds aren't all that bad...considering it will be moving along with the flow like Barry did (although there will be shear). That MLC is what I am watching as well....especially if it can hold together through the diurnal min.

[Normandy]

^I think it will come ashore with a surface low of some sorts, probably at a similar intensity of that tropical low that moved inland south of brownsville last week...Just prolly won't have enough time and the environment isn't conducive enough for RI.

[windstorm99]

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can see a 40 MPH storm at land fall easy..Won't take much in them waters..

[jrod]

That little swirl caught my eye. Overall I still think this convection will not become a TC and will just be another rain maker for texas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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Looks like a circulation of some
type in the area...lots of moisture and heat
content...if shear is low then we may see
a depression or tropical storm develop...

[Steve]

The interseting circulation in the high resolution link is the mini-vortex coming off the tip of the Yucatan. I see the curvature in the first wave (and what the poster was referring to), but check out the Yucatan. I think the main thing I got out of both of the swirls is the motion is generally toward the NNW.

Steve

[Comanche]

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN THE GULF TODAY ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS
HAS SHIFTED W. LIGHTNING DATA...RADAR...AND SATELLITE DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 88W. THE
ACTIVITY IS MOST CONCENTRATED IN A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION NOW DRIFTING N THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN...WITHIN 90NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 26N88W 24N93W
21N96W. THERE MAY BE A SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN THE AREA BUT
OVERALL THE SURFACE FLOW ON THE LARGE SCALE IS ANTICYCLONIC
AROUND AN ATLC RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUST THROUGH. A HINT OF LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED JUST OFFSHORE TUXPAN
MEXICO. THE UPPER SUPPORT...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE WITH THE FLOW HIGHLY DIFFLUENT BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER
LOW OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER WRN CUBA. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THU AND
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
NE PORTION WITH MODERATE SE FLOW IN THE WRN PORTION.
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE WRN GULF
THROUGH THU WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
LOWER TO MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR THE YUCATAN.

[Nimbus]

The peak convection is moving closer to the mid level center.
Almost looks like the convection is just displaced north from a LLC but the lower levels looked pretty elongated earlier.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 252100
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[MGC]

Spent some time looking at vis loops. Outflow boundries all over the place. No development anticipated......MGC

[Normandy]

Duddy,
The increase in Precip chance is to be expected, as the interaction between this tropical wave and the ULL will provide tons and tons of rainfall....same will happen with the second wave following this one. The more organized the wave gets, the more rain it will probably bring.

[vaffie]

Quikscat just imaged the area in the last few minutes. Showed the strongest winds in the Gulf in the vicinity of the low-level circulation at approximately 21.5N, 94.5W, with the highest winds at about 20 knots (23mph). No west wind apparent.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

The lowest pressure to date that I've noted in the gulf is the following from an hour ago at 1012.8 mb to the NW of the 'circulation center'--which is almost exactly at the 42055 buoy--so it's a very important buoy to watch (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E):

25/20 42020 26.9 -96.7 27.9 24.0 150 16 G 19 150 19 1012.8 -1.6 28.9 1.0 14 42020

[BigA]

From the maps that I can see, it looks like shear will decrease somewhat in the next 36 hours. I will post the link when I get home, but it is that multicolored map of shear (I think from weather underground.)

[Normandy]

Looking at the sat presentation, I think its getting a bit better organized...the MLC is still very vigorous.