Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[DrewFL]

wxman57 .........I think that's it! Thanks for the laugh! Ha Ha Ha.....

[punkyg]

lets have a little contest. in this contest you will have to say where the surface low forms and when it will form. i say it will form at 24n and 74w
around tomorrow afternoon. please guys tell me what you think.

[Thunder44]

That shortwave trough has been digging down hard all day and doesn't seem to have reached it's limit yet ...

That's very hostile to development of this blob.

The trof itself may actually induce more baroclinic development of the system. Especially once it moves east of Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. If this develops it will probably be another hybrid system which will probably start debates on whether it tropical, sub-tropical, or extratropical again.

[jaxfladude]

Here is a sarcastic "Going Poof" post

[cpdaman]

well i can't beleive how far that SE trough is digging i mean it's getting all the way down to cuba

and it is not going anywhere anytime soon

[x-y-no]

That shortwave trough has been digging down hard all day and doesn't seem to have reached it's limit yet ...

That's very hostile to development of this blob.

The trof itself may actually induce more baroclinic development of the system. Especially once it moves east of Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. If this develops it will probably be another hybrid system which will probably start debates on whether it tropical, sub-tropical, or extratropical again.

Except it's digging down hard to the west of our blob. Looks to me like we may get a cut-off ULL left behind over the Bahamas as the trough moves on.

[dixiebreeze]

The Invest 98L is now Poof on the NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

[clfenwi]

NOUS42 KNHC 281700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.

[Cyclone1]

The Invest 98L is now Poof on the NRL site:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

It'll be back.

[DrewFL]

98L is still on the FNMOC: http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[chadtm80]

98L on S2K homepage

[HURAKAN]

At least we have the plane and crew ready for tomorrow in case Chantal wants to make an appearance.

[RL3AO]

This just seems like the type of system that develops. We all focus on nice looking waves off of Africa and then this happens.

[HURAKAN]

It reminds me of Gordon last year. Everyone was focused on Florence and no one really noted the wave behind getting sheared. Then the environment improved, Florence moved away, and boom, we got Gordon.

[Berwick Bay]

RL said
This just seems like the type of system that develops. We all focus on nice looking waves off of Africa and then this happens.

So true RL. Often way too much interest in Cape Verde systems considering that the odds of their making it across the Atlantic to affect US shores are not nearly as great as storms that form in the E Carib, NW Carib, or Bahamas. I remember when Katrina formed in the Bahamas in '05, at that very moment many were absorbed with a possible development (which never materialized off the coast of Africa). Katrina formed and within just a couple of days it on the S Fl coast.

[DrewFL]

Not much new in the 2:05. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1818.shtml?

[cpdaman]

by looking at the trough digging in the SE it appears it's eastward progress is very slow and the main brunt of this is going south even SSE into the gulf, so maybe there will not be much added shear

but most of the convection has now died down and we will just wait and see what happens from here or what we can see now at the surface.

all i know is if this was winter it would be cold cold cold (relatively speaking of course)

[RL3AO]

The NRL is working again.

[xironman]

How meaningful are the QuickSCAT images http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png that show wind shifts around 72W 26N. Are they a useful tool?

[RL3AO]

How meaningful are the QuickSCAT images http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png that show wind shifts around 72W 26N. Are they a useful tool?

Bill Proenza felt QuikScat was an important tool.