INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[gatorcane]

I'm sure it has been spoken too, but a system developing this far south and west if it does indeed usually spells early trouble this time of year, Charley, Dennis and even Ivan for example

Yes, it has been mentioned.....I'm hoping it can manage to just pass the U.S. by to the south, assuming it develops....

[windstorm99]

[Brent]

Looks really good right now. I'm trying to be cautious because we've seen so many waves go poof lately, but I think this is the best looking one yet. Going to be a problem if it holds together...

Everyone says August is when things heat up, well it may be right on time this year.

[Blown Away]

Look like the GFS still takes 99L NW over/near PR, DR, and Cuba. Death track for 99L until the gulf. It's a problem for SFL if the track goes just N of those areas. It appears to me 99L is lifting NW and might be near
11.5N / 48W.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[miamicanes177]

A lot of dry air to the north and west keeps me from getting too carried away about it at this point.

[Derek Ortt]

I do need to rain on the development parade. This one has some serious SAL issues to overcome. Barbados sounding shows fairly strong mid level shear (easterly) that is typical with a SAL event.

Any development, IMO, is likely to be quite slow... though it does need to be watched as steering currents should bring this into the WGOM early next week (if it survives)

[x-y-no]

A lot of dry air to the north and west keeps me from getting too carried away about it at this point.

Not so much ...

[Derek Ortt]

Was just as the dairly HRD briefing... there is some very dry air. RH at Barbados was about 35% at 700mb

[miamicanes177]

A lot of dry air to the north and west keeps me from getting too carried away about it at this point.

Not so much ...

[skysummit]

I do need to rain on the development parade. This one has some serious SAL issues to overcome. Barbados sounding shows fairly strong mid level shear (easterly) that is typical with a SAL event.

Any development, IMO, is likely to be quite slow... though it does need to be watched as steering currents should bring this into the WGOM early next week (if it survives)

Sure there's dry air to the north, but it also has a nice envelope of moisture to work with. And...aren't you going a little too quick with movement? Early next week in the western Gulf? That seems too fast to me.

[ronjon]

As usual, 12Z CMC is bullish on development.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007073012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[x-y-no]

Was just as the dairly HRD briefing... there is some very dry air. RH at Barbados was about 35% at 700mb

Interesting ...

Guess the CIMSS analysis doesn't catch thast mid-level stuff so well ...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian is a Southern runner to Belize.

[gatorcane]

Hey Derek you are already calling for the WGOM - I think it is way too early to tell, the GFS wants to take it near Cuba and in or near South Florida...personally I think through the Caribbean into the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean sounds about right...given climatology.

[Cyclone1]

The CMC still develops two storms off the coast of NC too after 98L. Weird.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I thought S2K automatically knew if an image is too big, down-sized it, and then posted a little message about clicking on image for full size.


Cause I didn't think I'd blow up the thread.

[wxmann_91]

Was just as the dairly HRD briefing... there is some very dry air. RH at Barbados was about 35% at 700mb

I have to admit, I didn't look at that, and you are right.



And the GFS forecasts 700mb winds to be around 30-35 kt, a little too strong for TC development. (Though they do weaken after 96 hr.)

[x-y-no]

I thought S2K automatically knew if an image is too big, down-sized it, and then posted a little message about clicking on image for full size.


Cause I didn't think I'd blow up the thread.

Yes, it should ...

Wonder why that didn't work. :-/

[jasons2k]

I think Derek's call is also factoring-in slow development, which would mean a track towards the GOM, esp. with a ridge building-in.

[Dean4Storms]

I think Derek meant the Eastern Gulf with the storm of whatever intensity crossing over PR, DR and possibly even Cuber.

I think it is still way too early to say with any certainty where this could go, alot will depend on its development and strength. A stronger system is more likely to survive the big Carib. islands whereas a weaker system gets torn asunder.