Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

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Aquawind
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#101 Postby Aquawind » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:33 am

Drizzle a little "Berwick Model" over it and hold your nose tight.. :lol:
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#102 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:34 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

right now it would appear that this system has an inside track into Belize. High pressure is building in the northern GOM and over texas. But I really don't believe that the situation will stay like this for the next week (what are the chances?)....there is currently a small weakness east of Florida left by Chantal. I guess it will be filled in by a ridge over the next couple of days.

I still think if this system gains strength quickly it would end up a bit farther north. So far its staying on the weak side so it is heading west as expected. It should slow down once getting near the islands.

At this time I'm looking for it to move through the Caribbean and reach the West to NW Caribbean area where it could be a major hurricane. At that point I'm not sure where it will go....but anybody from South Texas all the way to the SE coast of the US should be closely monitoring the situation.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#103 Postby vaffie » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:35 am

Latest HWRF (6Z) model has it in the NW Caribbean moving WNW on Sunday Morning perhaps going to miss or not miss the Yucatan.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#104 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:36 am

Conditions moistening up to the west of 99L this morning!

Look at the atmospheric soundings this morning in Barbabos:

717.0 2968 9.6 7.5 87% 9.15 109 23 310.9 339.4 312.7
710.1 3048 9.2 6.0 80% 8.31 110 24 311.4 337.3 312.9
688.0 3310 8.0 1.0 61% 6.02 114 27 312.9 332.0 314.0

Yesterday was in the 30s% humidity at those heights.
Last edited by NDG on Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#105 Postby punkyg » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:37 am

I will not eat crow and i am not a he i'm a she!
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#106 Postby vaffie » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:38 am

From the PR Forecast Discussion,

A DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR 11 NORTH 49 WEST AT 08Z IS FINDING ITSELF IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND HAS SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATION. CURRENT MODELS SHOW IT MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNING MORE WESTERLY SO AS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING THAT SATELLITE LIGHTNING REPORTS DO NOT SHOW ANY ACTIVITY IN THIS CONVECTION OR IN THE SHOWERS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT SHOWING ANY TREND TOWARD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT. MOTION SEEMS TO BE FAVORING THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT THIS MAY BE BECAUSE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BUILDING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. MODELS ARE NOT AT THIS TIME LENDING MUCH PROMISE OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING FOR THOSE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#107 Postby GraysonDave » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:39 am

vaffie wrote:First Dvorak numbers for 99L:

31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Would one of you be so kind as to point me toward an explanation of Dvorak numbers? Thanks in advance.
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Re:

#108 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:39 am

punkyg wrote:I will not eat crow and i am not a he i'm a she!


Can't argue your gender....but crow "is" on the menu!!!!!
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#109 Postby vaffie » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:41 am

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#110 Postby punkyg » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:41 am

What happen to mister cycloneye? did he get ban too.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#111 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:42 am

NDG wrote:Conditions moistening up to the west of 99L this morning!

Look at the atmospheric soundings this morning in Barbabos:

717.0 2968 9.6 7.5 87% 9.15 109 23 310.9 339.4 312.7
710.1 3048 9.2 6.0 80% 8.31 110 24 311.4 337.3 312.9
688.0 3310 8.0 1.0 61% 6.02 114 27 312.9 332.0 314.0

Yesterday was in the 30s% humidity at those heights.


Now that's definately interesting.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#112 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:43 am

TD by Wednesday night
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#113 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:48 am

SHIPS still forecasts a hurricane with the 12z:


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200 070802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 50.4W 12.2N 54.0W 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 62.1W
BAMD 11.0N 50.4W 11.9N 52.8W 12.5N 55.4W 12.9N 58.0W
BAMM 11.0N 50.4W 11.9N 52.9W 12.5N 55.7W 13.1N 58.6W
LBAR 11.0N 50.4W 11.8N 53.0W 12.4N 55.9W 12.9N 58.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 1200 070804 1200 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 66.8W 17.7N 77.0W 18.8N 86.0W 19.3N 92.9W
BAMD 13.2N 60.7W 13.6N 65.8W 14.1N 71.3W 14.2N 76.4W
BAMM 13.5N 61.7W 14.5N 68.2W 15.7N 75.1W 16.4N 82.0W
LBAR 13.3N 61.9W 13.8N 68.3W 14.7N 74.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS 75KTS
DSHP 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 45.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#114 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 31, 2007 7:53 am

What is important is even if convection decreases for a time...it already has itself a good setup...the inflow is like a feeding tube...it will have no problem developing thunderstorms again
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#115 Postby vaffie » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:00 am

GraysonDave wrote:
vaffie wrote:First Dvorak numbers for 99L:

31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Would one of you be so kind as to point me toward an explanation of Dvorak numbers? Thanks in advance.


Good discussion of Dvorak numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#116 Postby GraysonDave » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:03 am

vaffie wrote:
GraysonDave wrote:
vaffie wrote:First Dvorak numbers for 99L:

31/0545 UTC 9.7N 49.2W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


Would one of you be so kind as to point me toward an explanation of Dvorak numbers? Thanks in advance.


Good discussion of Dvorak numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique


Thank you.
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#117 Postby skysummit » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:05 am

All the 12z Bam brothers bend this back west toward Central America.
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#118 Postby punkyg » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:07 am

Forget the Bam brothers lets talk about pretty boy cmc model.

Don't hate me cause i changed models.
Last edited by punkyg on Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#119 Postby Dynamic » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:08 am

punkyg wrote:What happen to mister cycloneye? did he get ban too.


Hi Punkyg, for all of you folks that are asking for CyclonEye, he have his computer out of service at this time. The computer needs to be repaired and he is taking the proper action to do it. Thanks.
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Re: Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

#120 Postby Hyperstorm » Tue Jul 31, 2007 8:10 am

I don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but 99L is struggling this morning. Convection has taken a very disorganized look and it seems the system is being affected by southerly mid-level shear, which has disrupted its inflow. Of course, we have the dry air surrounding it at this time and yes... we have a very ill system. If this system is going to develop, it will not be today.
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