Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[HURAKAN]

I don't see any improvement in organization this morning. Can't identify any LLC. Weak MLC appears to be around 11.7N/55.2W. Convection is out ahead of this MLC. Can't see any reason for recon today,and probably not tomorrow, either. If any development does occur, it might have to wait 4-5 days until it reaches the western Caribbean near Honduras.

Two full days and already four threads. If we have to wait until Honduras then that would mean around 8 to 12 more threads!!!!

[Thunder44]

QS pass at 9:14 UTC this morning, which barely caught, the system shows an inverted surface trough:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[punkyg]

Ain't this just pretty whooooooooooooooooooop!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

[HouTXmetro]

covection beggining to deepen this AM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

It would have to do something extraordinary this morning to get the NHC to send the RECON. By the way, the 805 TWD isn't out yet, it's late.

[Thunder44]

This is just a Dvorak estimate, but T-numbers are up:

01/1145 UTC 11.6N 57.0W T1.5/1.5 99L

[jrod]

As much as I want to get excited and call this a TD, I have to remind myself that there is no indication of a closed low at the surface and this latest burst is short term. I was right about the convection refiring last night, and today I expect the convection to fall apart again this afternoon. I am interested to see what the pressure and winds do when it goes over Barbados. IMO the recon flight isn't necessary, unless something extradonary happens soon, but I'm just an amatuer and don't know any better.

[HURAKAN]

...Special features...

A 1010 mb low near 12n55w is about 325 nm E of the southern
Windward Islands. A band of scattered moderate isolated strong
convection has appeared intermittently within 90 nm of the low
level center over the past several hours and the overall
organization of the system remains intact. The system still has
the potential for further development and could become a
tropical depression over the next day or so. Even if development
does not occur...the low will likely bring squalls to the
Windward Islands during the next day or so.

[HURAKAN]

As much as I want to get excited and call this a TD, I have to remind myself that there is no indication of a closed low at the surface and this latest burst is short term. I was right about the convection refiring last night, and today I expect the convection to fall apart again this afternoon. I am interested to see what the pressure and winds do when it goes over Barbados. IMO the recon flight isn't necessary, unless something extradonary happens soon, but I'm just an amatuer and don't know any better.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=barbados
Observed at: Grantley Adams, Barbados
Elevation: 164 ft / 50 m
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 76 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h / from the ENE
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa

[msbee]

Wow, don 't you guys ever sleep??

[punkyg]

I know whats missing from the navy front page do you know?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Whats are they doing? i wonder why they took it down.

[jrod]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=barbados
Observed at: Grantley Adams, Barbados
Elevation: 164 ft / 50 m
Humidity: 73%
Dew Point: 76 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h / from the ENE
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa

I'll be impressed if there is a significant pressure fall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Even if it develops, this storm appears to be a threat, judging from most of the models, only to Central America. The GFDL that crosses this into the Pacific probably has the right idea, IMHO. The more important system is the possible Gulf development, although that should be too close to land to become much more than a big rainstorm, while 99L, if it does develop before the islands, and holds it own the first 2 or 3 days in the E. Caribbean, may be a significant storm before it reaches Nicaragua or vicinity.


Just looking at Floater 2, unless it really poofs in the next few hours, I suspect the better safe than sorry says the Hurricane Hunter flight is a go.


I am not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV

[HURAKAN]

I know whats missing from the navy front page do you know?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Whats are they doing? i wonder why they took it down.

We'll have to wait to see if it comes back. Maybe a technical glitch in the system.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, don 't you guys ever sleep??

Believe it or not, YES!!! I slept soundly between 12 & 5:30 AM.

[windstorm99]

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW, OMG it looks like a depression.. J/K... seriously if it only holds to that convection, the hunters might have a reason to go out.

[bvigal]

Very strange about NRL (and NMOC).... the latest this isn't exactly going to 'poof', could it be we're getting a td already??

[Meso]

Hrm,nice convective blow up.. But may mean nothing if it dies again in a few hours.. It needs to maintain it's convection for anything to really happen.Looking healthier than earlier,that's for sure

[miamicanes177]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC WED AUG 1 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070801 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070801 1200 070802 0000 070802 1200 070803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 56.4W 12.9N 60.6W 14.2N 65.3W 15.6N 70.3W
BAMD 11.8N 56.4W 12.5N 59.3W 13.1N 62.3W 13.5N 65.2W
BAMM 11.8N 56.4W 12.7N 59.7W 13.4N 63.3W 14.1N 66.9W
LBAR 11.8N 56.4W 12.5N 59.6W 13.1N 63.1W 13.7N 66.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070803 1200 070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 75.6W 19.5N 85.0W 21.5N 91.8W 23.3N 95.9W
BAMD 13.8N 68.2W 14.2N 74.2W 14.3N 80.1W 14.5N 85.4W
BAMM 14.7N 70.8W 15.8N 78.8W 16.2N 86.3W 16.1N 92.3W
LBAR 14.2N 70.2W 15.2N 77.0W 16.6N 83.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 64KTS 76KTS 82KTS
DSHP 51KTS 64KTS 76KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 53.3W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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