Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

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HURAKAN
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#101 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:23 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#102 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:26 pm

philnyc wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Normandy wrote:Evening Thoughts,
I believe 99L has degraded in organization today....any spin that it had prior to reaching the islands has pretty much vanished and now its a wide open wave with convection a bit more disorganized. Im not so bullish on this becoming a TD anymore, but it still has a shot.

That being said, the diurnal max could push this over the edge as the environment now seems more conducive for development, so later tonight it might get over the hump....but for now it looks more disorganized.


Here we go again. I have spoken (well, written) too much today to go over the same thing all over again. Every night, the same CD with the same song.


LOL! This certainly IS getting to be an old tune...


Phil,

The problem is that this is not a "tune" but a opinion that 99L was not going to develop over the last few days, not that it would never develop. It's hard to weed out the many repetitive posts that never gave this system a chance. Sometimes the chat environment of the board can be quite misleading...;)
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Re: Re:

#103 Postby philnyc » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:37 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
Shear Tendecy maps show increasing shear as it enters the Caribbean. That explains the convection racing away from the center. It'll probably gain convection during the diurnal maximum, but it maybe be blown away during the daytime hours tomorrow. The shear tendencies might change to decreasing shear, but right now shear doesn't seem so favorable for the system right now.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

If you look that is because it is situated under an area of upper level high pressure. The problem isn't and hasn't been shear.. it is the low level convergence.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html


You've got it, southfloridawx. That's a great point. The shear is increasing ahead of it, but only from roughly 5 knots to 15 at the most, which is not that significant. The convection is racing to the west, but so is the center, i.e. so what!
The lower level convergence is the problem, as you've said, so we need to take a look at how it will improve or degrade in the next days. Let's see what we can dig up about future low level convergence trends.
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#104 Postby canetracker » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:38 pm

Image

Unless something drastically changes, it sure looks like a Mexico event to me. Image Will be watching the new model runs for changes, but I don't see anything that will.
Last edited by canetracker on Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#105 Postby philnyc » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:40 pm

Phil, The problem is that this is not a "tune" but a opinion that 99L was not going to develop over the last few days, not that it would never develop. It's hard to weed out the many repetitive posts that never gave this system a chance. Sometimes the chat environment of the board can be quite misleading


Thanks. Sometimes it's almost impossible to follow it all...
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#106 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:41 pm

99L needs to start learning some Spanish!!!
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#107 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:42 pm

so no td?
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#108 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:43 pm

Those models in my opinion need to be taken with caution until we get a well defined LLC with deep convection.
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Re: Re:

#109 Postby philnyc » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:44 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Normandy wrote:Yes Ivanhater, the environment seems much more conducive for convective outbursts, so tonight should be fun.


Well it better..cause I refuse to go to bed until I see some explosion! :lol: :grr:


There you go IH. See that convection wrapping around the northwestern part of the LLC?

Image

Let's watch that...
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#110 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:44 pm

windstorm99 wrote:Those models in my opinion need to be taken with caution until we get a well defined LLC with deep convection.


I wont be watching models until we have a defined low..models are guessing right now on position and strength..2 big factors on track...
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#111 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:46 pm

Looks very unimpressive this evening. Still no LLC, just an open wave. Lowest pressure is well SSE of the convection.
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#112 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:49 pm

Don't think this will happen with 99L, but I recall the people in this forum being absolute about Ernesto going into Mexico/Texas.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#113 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:54 pm

I think 99L will be doing better tomorrow, still under upper level high pressure and it will move farther away from South America. We'll probably see a blow up in convection to keep it going a bit tonight, then I think tomorrow is show time for this area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_024l.gif
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#114 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:55 pm

Blown_away wrote:Don't think this will happen with 99L, but I recall the people in this forum being absolute about Ernesto going into Mexico/Texas.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml


Very bad example...

Ernesto was at least a storm. Maybe we should wait till we get a defined LLC and then look at the conditions ahead of it?
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#115 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:59 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Don't think this will happen with 99L, but I recall the people in this forum being absolute about Ernesto going into Mexico/Texas.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml


Very bad example...

Ernesto was at least a storm. Maybe we should wait till we get a defined LLC and then look at the conditions ahead of it?


It's not such a horrible example...

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200605.asp
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#116 Postby Normandy » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:Looks very unimpressive this evening. Still no LLC, just an open wave. Lowest pressure is well SSE of the convection.



Agreed....I think all the convection firing is a bit decieving.....the northern convection is definitely not related to any LLC, as its racing westward.
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#117 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:05 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Don't think this will happen with 99L, but I recall the people in this forum being absolute about Ernesto going into Mexico/Texas.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/gr ... p_5W.shtml


Very bad example...

Ernesto was at least a storm. Maybe we should wait till we get a defined LLC and then look at the conditions ahead of it?


It's not such a horrible example...

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200605.asp


Forgive me if I missed that 99L is a developed storm :?:

Also how about the exact conditions ahead of Ernesto? Do they mimic what is now ahead of our wave?

*Edit*

For the correct invest....99L
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#118 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:11 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SPREADING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...IF NECESSARY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION BUT SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Invest 99L Entering Eastern Caribbean - Thread #5

#119 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:15 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html... It looks the convection is trying to move back east towards the "center"
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#120 Postby astrosbaseball22 » Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:18 pm

and if it does that,,,what will happen
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