Invest 99L Thread #6

[El Nino]

Oh yeah, they'll say : "conditions will become less favourable but there's still some potential for development the next day or two". Booooooooooooring

[mgpetre]

that Dvorak means its weakening. You only get a data T lower than the CI when it is weakening.

I know some really want a storm, but could we tone down some of the postings that this is developing when ALL meteorological data says it is not?

Personally, I never said it was developing currently, but I do not believe that the shear to its west is going to kill it. If you are correct then I will admit that my semi-educated guesses are wrong. Honestly people on these forums are generally smart enough to know that all of this is speculation at this point. I don't think it's any worse to speculate that the storm may intensify than it is to speculate that it may go away completely. The truth is that either could happen still. Heck, I could speculate that this will be sheared apart and that its remnants will form an LLC over the western edge of Cuba next week at some point and be entirely correct, that's part of the fun of hurricane talk. I wouldn't dare think of posting those types of predictions in a Recon or a thread for a storm that is immediately threatening somewhere though. All you really have to say is: "I think this thing is going to be ripped apart and those that think it will become a storm of any significance are wrong IMO." There is no need to tone anything down, it's what makes the discussion interesting. IMO

[Sanibel]

If it bursts red tonight there won't be any -removed- about it.

[dixiebreeze]

Can a TD be too far in the future with it now at 30 kts. and 1010 mb (per NRL), plus higher Dvorak intensity now: DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1745 UTC 13.2N 66.7W T1.0/1.5 99L

The problem of course is there is no center. You can have 60 kt winds but if there's no center, it's not anything other than a wave.

I'm quickly running out of patience with this thing.

Right you are, Brent. Patience, patience.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Obviously some really want a storm, but it is also jsut as obvious that some are so vehemently against any formation. Just as some have said "its a storm now, or will be soon!" there have been others for days saying "no it's not and it will be dead soon".

Neither side is 100% right or wrong. It is a system in the flux of formation, that may or may not fully achieve that. For both sides to be so condescending to the other is sad this early in the season.

Remember, we are all here to follow the storms, to learn, to teach and to be entertained. let's enjoy our time together.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hmm...this system is a rather curious creature...

Funny critter we got here...
Looks pretty

Pretty pretty wave how do you do???

Well anyway...what a funny critter

[skysummit]

Plus, I don't see what the pro mets are getting so wishy washy for. This is a board full of amateurs for the most part and everyone's opinion should be welcomed. This is not a professional met board which should only show official meteorological data. If someone wants to forecast this to be a Cat 4, then so be it. That's what the disclaimers are for. Pro mets have the analysis forum.

[miamicanes177]

AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.

No need for that because according to the CSU experts we've still got 8 hurricanes (4 of them with winds 111mph+) to go.

[Blown Away]

Plus, I don't see what the pro mets are getting so wishy washy for. This is a board full of amateurs for the most part and everyone's opinion should be welcomed. This is not a professional met board which should only show official meteorological data. If someone wants to forecast this to be a Cat 4, then so be it. That's what the disclaimers are for. Pro mets have the analysis forum.

Little secret, the Pro's like to talk to us more!

[Derek Ortt]

AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.

That was the best post of the day, Foxweather. I was wating for 2 hours to have a chest x-ray today... kind of wish I had read some of the wishcasts to amuse myself while passing the time (paper I brought was not quite long enough)

[Sanibel]

See if it bursts red tonight.

[HURAKAN]

See if it bursts red tonight.

It will. That's a given.

[dixiebreeze]

AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.

That was the best post of the day, Foxweather. I was wating for 2 hours to have a chest x-ray today... kind of wish I had read some of the wishcasts to amuse myself while passing the time (paper I brought was not quite long enough)

Derek, with all due respect, I remember when you were one of "us." And very good, too.

[harmclan]

See if it bursts red tonight.

Even if this burst as much red as the climax of a firework display the NHC is not going to classify this as a TD without closed circulation, especially when the conditions become hostile

[HouTXmetro]

I welcome the pro-mets discussions but as if others haved noted, they have their own board if we want a more informed opinion... No offense pro-mets

[Extremeweatherguy]

I either want this storm to go ahead and develop or to die completely. This back and forth "looks good", "looks bad" cycle is getting annoying. Just when we think it might develop it doesn't, and then just when we think it is gone for good, it comes back. It is giving be a headache! lol.

[philnyc]

that Dvorak means its weakening. You only get a data T lower than the CI when it is weakening.

I know some really want a storm, but could we tone down some of the postings that this is developing when ALL meteorological data says it is not?

AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.

What's wrong with the posts I made about its chances? I did my research and am not basing it on any wishes or idle speculation.

[El Nino]

I either want this storm to go ahead and develop or to die completely. This back and forth "looks good", "looks bad" cycle is getting annoying. Just when we think it might develop it doesn't, and then just when we think it is gone for good, it comes back. It is giving be a headache! lol.

Totally agree. Would be better to say for one time "season over" and I'll be back to work

[destruction92]

AMEN!!

Geeee...by the tone of this board it is obvious that some of you need to sit on Santa's lap and ask for a storm.

That was the best post of the day, Foxweather. I was wating for 2 hours to have a chest x-ray today... kind of wish I had read some of the wishcasts to amuse myself while passing the time (paper I brought was not quite long enough)

There is a reason why this forum is called "Talkin' Tropics" and not "Tropical Analysis". Everyone is welcome to have their own speculative opinions, even if it seems like -removed- to you. If you find it amusing, good...I am glad for you because laughter is fun to have.

[miamicanes177]

I welcome the pro-mets discussions but as if others haved noted, they have their own board if we want a more informed opinion... No offense pro-mets

This is true. We can go to the other board and read the pro mets opinion. Personally, the only professionals I will ever listen to are the NHC experts because I know their credentials and expertise. They have many years of experience and are in fact the very best in the country, and some believe in the world.