99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[mgpetre]

What about the "land grip" effect? I know that I've seen storms that once they have some low level circ they are able to get traction against the land mass and move along the coast. I'm not saying this will happen in this case, but just curious if it could be a factor if this thing does get low level spin. Chances are it's just a rain maker for Honduras and Yucatan, but do you think this could happen?

BTW, anyone have any idea how WET Honduras is currently. I did missionary work in Honduras in 1998 because of landslides from Mitch. Just hoping they don't see that again anytime soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Good sat loop of carrib takes awhile to load but worth it


http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

[Normandy]

^The QSCAT missed the system

[artist]

^The QSCAT missed the system

but it did get the surrounding areas.

[NDG]

Good sat loop of carrib takes awhile to load but worth it


http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

Nice MLC

[Aric Dunn]

Good sat loop of carrib takes awhile to load but worth it


http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

Nice MLC

the WV

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... verlay=off

[Recurve]

Man, look at that...blob...and that swirl to the west...is it wrapping southward!!???

Ok. It's just a strong wave. It's just a strong wave. there is no circulation. Keep saying it.

I belive what everybody's saying about pressures and the shear. It just...looks...like...it...wants...to...get going.

Kinda vigorous weather behind it too?

Is there broad, very broad circulation happening, or my eyes just foolin? The sat showing some southerly winds to the east and northerly on the right?

[Aric Dunn]

Man, look at that...blob...and that swirl to the west...is it wrapping southward!!???

Ok. It's just a strong wave. It's just a strong wave. there is no circulation. Keep saying it.

I belive what everybody's saying about pressures and the shear. It just...looks...like...it...wants...to...get going.

Kinda vigorous weather behind it too?

Is there broad, very broad circulation happening, or my eyes just foolin? The sat showing some southerly winds to the east and northerly on the right?

no there is something really trying to get going .. your not going blind just give it an couple hours and see if this convections hangs around

[RL3AO]

99L is back. Sorry if this has been posted. I didn't see it.

[cycloneye]

Hot off the presses. 99L is again at NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[mgpetre]

Question: Why is this moving almost due West while all of the storms preceding it are heading almost due North or NNW? Is it because more of it's energy is lower in the atmosphere? I'm just trying to understand this whole steering thing a little better. Thanks in advance.

[Brent]

99L is back. Sorry if this has been posted. I didn't see it.

Of course it is... now that it has a day at most before landfall.



I really don't think it has time to do anything. It's waited too long.

[cycloneye]

And more hot stuff off the presses.Models are running again.

WHXX01 KWBC 040319
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0319 UTC SAT AUG 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070804 0000 070804 1200 070805 0000 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 80.3W 14.5N 83.7W 14.9N 87.2W 15.4N 90.6W
BAMD 14.2N 80.3W 14.9N 83.4W 15.5N 86.6W 16.0N 90.0W
BAMM 14.2N 80.3W 14.7N 84.0W 15.0N 87.4W 15.1N 91.0W
LBAR 14.2N 80.3W 15.0N 85.0W 16.1N 89.6W 17.3N 93.8W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 28KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070806 0000 070807 0000 070808 0000 070809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 93.6W 16.5N 98.8W 17.5N 102.6W 18.7N 106.0W
BAMD 16.5N 93.4W 17.1N 99.4W 17.4N 104.2W 17.5N 108.4W
BAMM 15.3N 94.2W 15.1N 100.1W 15.0N 104.8W 14.9N 108.8W
LBAR 18.8N 97.5W 21.7N 102.0W 23.3N 104.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 79KTS 86KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 27KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 74.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 27KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 69.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Stratosphere747]

I mentioned early that they seemed to take it down rather abruptly when being a bit "bullish" the last few days. Sure seems to have slowed down, though that ball of convection that has been rather slow to move could be giving that appearance.

[Aric Dunn]

never mind i clicked on 99l and got Chantal

[SkeetoBite]

[RL3AO]

Come on Flossie comeon!

[mgpetre]

I won't ask again, but is there such thing as the "Land Grip" effect?

[El Nino]

You'll see : once in the Pacific, it will develop into a major hurricane ...

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... PE=Animate