GFS continues to develop African wave

[DESTRUCTION5]

108 keeps Trough in east

[astrosbaseball22]

thats a FL storm

[Evil Jeremy]

thats a FL storm

Yay for florida!

[windstorm99]

thats a FL storm

Yay for florida!

Uh no...

[Vortex]

Lets hope the set-up doesnt continue or this means major problems for the northern leewards...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

the GFS drops the low 1001mb at 114hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... _114.shtml

[Ivanhater]

Lets hope the set-up doesnt continue or this means major problems for the northern leewards...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

Looks like a busy week coming up for S2K..I think our first wobble wars are coming...lol

[cycloneye]

I think our first wobble wars are coming...lol

Dont say it loud.

[Blown Away]

Question: As this storm makes its approach to the EC is the ridge beginning a retreat or is it building?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Question: As this storm makes its approach to the EC is the ridge beginning a retreat or is it building?

No out yet but id have to say building..at 132 there is still a trough..

[MiamiensisWx]

Question: As this storm makes its approach to the EC is the ridge beginning a retreat or is it building?

The southern Plains and Bermuda ridges close the 500 mbar gap as the trough moves away from the area. Note the strengthening subtropical ridge - the run indicates an expansion to the west.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_138l.gif

[x-y-no]

the GFS drops the low 1001mb at 114hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... _114.shtml

Yep. And at 132 I see a 35 knot west wind barb - so it's depicting a TS at that point.

I'd love for this to verify if only it would then recurve out to sea ...

[cheezyWXguy]

the GFS drops the low 1001mb at 114hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... _114.shtml

Yep. And at 132 I see a 35 knot west wind barb - so it's depicting a TS at that point.

I'd love for this to verify if only it would then recurve out to sea ...

If it takes that track it is not likely, as the GFS takes it further south than before, and i think this may be either a bahamas/florida storm, or maybe even a caribbean storm

[windstorm99]

Still going very strong @162hrs

[Ivanhater]

162

[El Nino]

HOLY CRAP !

Sorry, I'm just anticipating !
Well, if this is right, I'm quite please to see some action, but unfortunately, it would be the first cane of the year and not a fish apparently.

[cheezyWXguy]

wow...a 996mb low at 162! that could be close to hurricane strength that far out

[Aric Dunn]

Ok just cut and paste this>> javascript:popupDerivedProduct('RGB','AIR', 9); into your browsers then click sector five ...

nice look at the only thing that "COULD" possible bring the development that the gfs is doing!!! so minus the dry air, low latitude, sal and stable environment that this system will move into as it exits the coast (unless that all changes before it does) there is a very slim chance at this point to see it develop that fast but it is possible.I cant watch a wave that has not even come off africa yet its pointless.

[gatorcane]

certainly things are getting interesting with this GFS monster that is forecasted to slide underneath a building bermuda ridge. This scenario, if it pans out, is exactly what we don't want to see. I hope some troughiness builds back in to the East coast but given how persistent that EC trough has been this summer I knew it was a matter of time before the long wave pattern changed and ridging built in -- looks like 2004 all over again with the ridge setup forecasted by the GFS?

[Ivanhater]

Out to sea in this run