Depression to form in GOM??

[flwxwatcher]

Extreme, agree with your thoughts. If something does indeed form, the end point could be a large area along the Gulf Coast.. depending on speed and strength of Shortwave and location in the Gulf of any system that forms. Interesting week ahead for Gulf as well as SE Coast and East Coast residents it looks like.

[Stormcenter]

And your reason SC?

There is nothing organized there right now and based on what some of the models are predicting nothing should be there until late Sunday so why mention it. I guess they are more concerned with 99L right now and that makes sense. It is the much better organized, though sheared, system.

[Sabanic]

Sounds good to me. Thanks

[perk]

And your reason SC?

There is nothing organized there right now and based on what some of the models are predicting nothing should be there until late Sunday so why mention it. I guess they are more concerned with 99L right now and that makes sense. It is the much better organized, though sheared, system.

STDS was issued at 5:05pm. The recon found no surface circulation.

[robbielyn]

why is june and then october primed for gulf storms and not in between and has anything ever brewed in the gulf between july and sept? not counting the carribean. BTW, steve lyons just talked about the possibility of gulf system. He said the western part of the system will dissipate but if the eastern part holds together it could form. right now there appears to be a weak low level circulation and it is moving slowly west.

[Stratosphere747]

I see no sign of a surface low.

Lots of divergence-driven convection, that's all.

Little bump - Since this explains about all that is going on right now with this mess.

[hriverajr]

Well if something forms it could be interesting. As for movement it depends on the strength of the trough coming in. One thing to note.... even though other storms have been at a much lower latitude is for the the tendency to move more west than north. Yes this will change as we get later in the season, even so thiis has been true for most of the disturbances. Just something to keep note of.

Also most models do not really dig the trough (if they really do) until Wed morning. That is over four days away. So if something does form the die will have been cast already most likely. The upper high is still fairly strong. So personally (and this is not an official forecast) I would say Texas or Louisiana in that order.That is of course if anything was to develop.


Hector

[srainhoutx]

Well if something forms it could be interesting. As for movement it depends on the strength of the trough coming in. One thing to note.... even though other storms have been at a much lower latitude is for the the tendency to move more west than north. Yes this will change as we get later in the season, even so thiis has been true for most of the disturbances. Just something to keep note of.

Also most models do not really dig the trough (if they really do) until Wed morning. That is over four days away. So if something does form the die will have been cast already most likely. The upper high is still fairly strong. So personally (and this is not an official forecast) I would say Texas or Louisiana in that order.That is of course if anything was to develop.


Hector

Thanks for the input Hector. Still a lot of shear going on and nothing at the surface at this time. Presistance is the name of the game.

[windstorm99]

I say if this developes it goes north and east due to the coming trough, so from Mississippi to Florida.

[hriverajr]

It really does depend on the strength and timing of the trough. I just don't see this thing just sitting stationary in the gulf to be honest, waiting to be picked up. So the trough would have to come sooner rather than later.

[mattpetre]

I see no sign of a surface low.

Lots of divergence-driven convection, that's all.

Little bump - Since this explains about all that is going on right now with this mess.

But don't we think that the right amount of divergence could spawn a lower level low? I know this is going to be a fairly slow haul, but for us in the Gulf, seems like the most interesting thing to watch for now. I am watching 99L too of course, but it seems like a more straightforward forecast as far as path at least... and probably won't become a hurricane... so I'm watching this non-invest for more excitement as I'm sure others here are too. BTW, thank you Hector for giving some input from the professional side on this non-invest. I find this particular area of great interest because it is very plausible for such a great number of things to happen. I'm betting it will develop, but realize that the possibility of nothing is just as great. Nothing to worry much about, but very interesting...

I'm starting out with a prediction of a TS Humberto making landfall near Lake Charles... time will tell. Part of me really wants to make that prediction closer to a Cat2 at landfall, but at the same time no reason to be alarmist about something that for now is so insignificant.

[PTrackerLA]

Moderate convection continues to initiate in this area. Could this become a western GOM tropical storm that are somewhat common in Sepetember? I think the upper level winds will be too hostile to support a hurricane at this time.

[aOl]

lol GFS...



It has this happening because it first moves south, away from any shear, then when the shear weakens it moves back up, intensifying along the way. It has some divergence conveniently around both sides of the system.

[KatDaddy]

Convection fading away tonight. A long way from any real tropical threat. Perhaps if the front next week makes it into the GOM we could see a more interesting developments.

[flwxwatcher]

For entertainment purposes only for everyone living along the entire Gulf Coast I present the 18Z DGEX. LOL

Click sea level pressure and animate

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpl ... day.conus/

[Alacane2]

From this afternoon's NWS Mobile AFD...

LONG TERM (MONDAY ON): SOME UNCERTAINTY THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THE EXTENDED...WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HEADING NORTH OVER LA/MS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GETTING PUSHED TO THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE
SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. OP GFS/CANADIAN ARE THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED OF THE
SOLUTIONS. AM TAKING A GENERAL "LETS GIVE THE MODELS A BIT MORE TIME
TO COALESCE" APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

[Extremeweatherguy]

From this afternoon's NWS Mobile AFD...

LONG TERM (MONDAY ON): SOME UNCERTAINTY THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THE EXTENDED...WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON A POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HEADING NORTH OVER LA/MS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT GETTING PUSHED TO THE COAST. SOME GUIDANCE HAS THE
SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. OP GFS/CANADIAN ARE THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED OF THE
SOLUTIONS. AM TAKING A GENERAL "LETS GIVE THE MODELS A BIT MORE TIME
TO COALESCE" APPROACH AT THIS TIME.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/productview ... &version=0

Seems like even they are unsure of the possible development and path of this system in the long run. Still a lot of "waiting and seeing" to be done.

[Nimbus]

The surface pressures mid gulf dropped from 30.10 down to 29.87 in just a few hours. Some pretty gusty winds near the buoy as well but in the last hour the pressure came back up to 29.90.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Great place to have a buoy.

[ROCK]

posted this in another forum thought I would share what I am seeing. This was from earlier today:

Just took a peak at the vis loop and looked at the latest cimms....convection has waned tonight with the loss of daytime heating which is typical..... Nothing at the surface yet. We will see what the DM and tomorrow brings....

Looking at this shear map, you can see its currently under some upper level shear 20 or so. Also you can click on upper level divergence and see that it has good divergence but at the lower level it is lacking. Safe to say nothing at the surface right now...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


current steering current:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


18z GFS not picking it up but the 12z sent a 1008 L into NO.....the 18z NAM still insists on spinning up something and taking it into South TX.


12z NOGAPS, UKMET do not close off a low just an area of weakness that tracks into South Texas as well....

I guess we will see......but IMO we are going to see something out of this try to develope...maybe a sheared system like our pal on the EC....

[green eyed girl]

Looks like a lot of uncertainty in many of the forecasts. Maybe that's why the promets are staying away for now.