Post-90L: Discussions & Imagery: T1.0/1.0

[Stratosphere747]

12z NAM is a bit more aggressive, and stalls it out to 72hrs.

[Stratosphere747]

Should have some good discos in the afternoon from all the coastal AFD's.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1034 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

LATEST MODEL RUNS POINTING TOWARD A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE STALLED FRONT. MORE ON THIS IN
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
940 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...LAPS ANALYSIS AT 14Z SHOWS A 1013MB SURFACE LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KBRO. THIS SYSTEM...
WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL
BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW APPROACHING THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT NEARS THE
COAST WITH THE NAM INDICATING MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFS.

[BigA]

Upper level winds look quite favorable off the Texas coast: 5 to 10 kt of shear http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

This should be resurrected as an invest IMHO. Close, but not too close to land, could stall for 36 -72 hours, I'd give it a decent shot.

[srainhoutx]

FXUS64 KCRP 111539
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.UPDATE...GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS A PW SWATH OF 2+ INCHES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN CWFA. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER (PER MSAS
ANALYSIS) THAN THE NAM/GFS INDICATE. THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH A CAPE VALUE OF
~4000 J/KG. WITH ALL THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...DECIDED TO KICK
UP POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA. ALSO INCREASED WINDS
OVER THE BAYS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

[Stratosphere747]

It's moving, at least to my observations. Still much slower than the last few days.

Hopefully it gets on inland. 12z GFS rides it slowly up the coast out to 72hrs.

[Kludge]

Joe Bastardi jost posted a quickie comment that former 90L will not come ashore for at least 24 hours, perhaps not until 48 to 72 hours, and that he still thinks a TD or weak TS is possible.

Check out his "big dog" video that was just now posted. He's really hyped-up on this thing getting it's act together over the next 24 hours. But because he overhyped Gabrielle, he's not saying just how deep it will get.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yeah, he said he won't call 970 mb, but he is pretty sure somewhere on the Texas coast will have sustained tropical storm force winds, at least in a squall.


I know a lot of people don't like JB, but while he isn't perfect, he does own up to his bad forecasts.

[HouTXmetro]

How can this low continue to move WNW and the front has almost reached the coast?

[wxman57]

I see a weak surface trof extending from Brownsville to SW LA. Pressures aren't too low there,and no sign of an LLC today. Just looks like a rain event for us in Texas, like we need more rain.

[Steve]

>>Yeah, he said he won't call 970 mb, but he is pretty sure somewhere on the Texas coast will have sustained tropical storm force winds, at least in a squall.

If it develops just offshore, the interruption of the onshore flow could provide the spin. We've seen that kind of thing in the past. This had the opportunity earlier in the week and didn't crank. It will have another opportunity to do so in the next day or so. Tough to say if it comes together, but it would be a nice call for JB if he got this one right.

Steve

[wxman57]

How can this low continue to move WNW and the front has almost reached the coast?

The two would meet near the coast and we could be looking at a major rainfall event for the TX coast. Like we need more rain.

[HouTXmetro]

Well As long as this mess clears out for Friday Night High School Football I am fine!!

[Portastorm]

I see a weak surface trof extending from Brownsville to SW LA. Pressures aren't too low there,and no sign of an LLC today. Just looks like a rain event for us in Texas, like we need more rain.

Not trying to nit-pick here but more trying to understand something ... Wxman 57, you say no LLC. The NHC says there is a 1010 mb low at 26n-95w. Does that mean that the 1010 mb low pressure is more in the middle levels (maybe 700mb?) of the atmosphere and not down at, oh say the 850mb level?

[wxman57]

I see a weak surface trof extending from Brownsville to SW LA. Pressures aren't too low there,and no sign of an LLC today. Just looks like a rain event for us in Texas, like we need more rain.

Not trying to nit-pick here but more trying to understand something ... Wxman 57, you say no LLC. The NHC says there is a 1010 mb low at 26n-95w. Does that mean that the 1010 mb low pressure is more in the middle levels (maybe 700mb?) of the atmosphere and not down at, oh say the 850mb level?

I see no sign of a 1010mb low, just a trof axis with lowest pressures in the 1012-1013mb. Here's a high-res analysis. You could analyze a very weak low near 26N/96W but not 1010mb maybe 1012 or 1013mb at the lowest. If the pressure was 1010mb there, then you'd have a 4mb gradient to the coast and a lot stronger winds than 10 kts.

[Stormcenter]

In my "unprofessional" opinion I think the
area to watch is south of Lake Charles, LA.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[HouTXmetro]

Could this turn out to be an elongated sysytem like Erin?

[hriverajr]

Well I think there is a low.. not trying to overplay it..


Hector

[Stormcenter]

Well I think there is a low.. not trying to overplay it..


Hector

Where do you think it is?

[wxman57]

It's clear from the analysis I posted that the lowest pressure measured anywhere around the trof is 1013.5mb, though the pressure near the trof axis could be a millibar lower. Perhaps a very, very weak low near 26N/96W, but it's not very significant. This appears to be a heavy rain threat not a TC development threat.

[srainhoutx]

00z GFS at 60 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

00z NAM at 60 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

Looks like a Heavy Rain Event at least in my humble opinion.