Western Caribbean Disturbance

[Portastorm]

I haven't been paying attention to this.... has it improved much over the past few days or still pretty much the same? Local met (greg_kfdm_tv on here) posted this as a reply on a local board a little while ago:

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:00 am

Unfortunately, this will be something to watch as well.

It should move across the northern Yucatan by Saturday and into the southern Gulf Sunday.

Upper level conditions are becoming more favorable for development.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV

Meh.... bring on winter!

Right now I think we're in "blob watch" mode and nothing more. Doesn't appear to be anything close to a low center developing in the area (yet) ... but the GFS and NOGAPS develop something and move it towards the Texas coast within 96 hours. The "Crazy Uncle" CMC seems to have some energy from that area head towards Texas but isn't nearly as bullish as the other two.

At least it's not a stinkin' ULL trying to spin down the surface!

[KWT]

This area does look interesting in that its a fairly classic latter half of the season area to form and while we are still in September its a classic place for October systems to form and indeed some strong ones have gotten going in the region this area of convection is. its a little way away yet mind you but if it can get going before land interaction with Yucatan then it'll be something to watch IMO.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 17:15 UTC

[jhamps10]

This area does look interesting in that its a fairly classic latter half of the season area to form and while we are still in September its a classic place for October systems to form and indeed some strong ones have gotten going in the region this area of convection is. its a little way away yet mind you but if it can get going before land interaction with Yucatan then it'll be something to watch IMO.

yeah, and I'm seeing signs of a low starting to form, abit slowly seeing turning still today.

sad thing is, that this looks a good bit better than STD 10.

yep, looking better.

[Portastorm]

TPC -- putting the kibosh of any development talk -- says in its afternoon discussion:

"IN FACT...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO."

[Ed Mahmoud]

TPC -- putting the kibosh of any development talk -- says in its afternoon discussion:

"IN FACT...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO."

If the Euro shows something, I'd be a lot more interested.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Something is trying to develop. Notice the oval shape,
as well as the expanse of convection.
Heat content is also explosive.
We will see what happens.
Maybe a depression sometime within the next
48 hours.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NOT a wishcast, just an observation:

It's quite possible this whatever it is a blob of rain
could follow a similar path to td 10.
the td10 sw flow might initially push this
mess north and northeast close to south
florida but then the ridge builds in and it
starts to move west and be further west at a
latitute much further south of td10.
Also this could go further west...so the rain
from this might affect Texas sometime
next week. And Texas does not need more
rain after all that flooding.

So those in the WGOM in addition to td10
also need to monitor the progress of this system, as
I feel the synoptics favor the heavy rain with this
chugging towards the WGOM most likely
texas with that ridge.

NOTE: I am not predicting anything beyond
48 hours, but there may be a TD somewhere in this
area in 48 hours.

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO fails to develop W. Car blob...

FWIW

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is a chance that this does not develop,
thats defintely possible.

But I'll watch it just in case it does try to organize.

[vaffie]

The lowest pressure in the northwestern Caribbean was reported in the last hour by a ship located at 19.7N, 82.0W at 1011 mb and it's reporting moderately fast falling pressures and a 19 knot southeast wind. This and other details would seem to indicate that a surface circulation is forming at approximately 18.7N, 83W or a few miles east of where the strongest convection in the area has formed in the last hour.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:15 UTC

[Portastorm]

The lowest pressure in the northwestern Caribbean was reported in the last hour by a ship located at 19.7N, 82.0W at 1011 mb and it's reporting moderately fast falling pressures and a 19 knot southeast wind. This and other details would seem to indicate that a surface circulation is forming at approximately 18.7N, 83W or a few miles east of where the strongest convection in the area has formed in the last hour.

At first glance, I kinda wondered what you were looking at vaffie ... but after a few minutes with the NASA satellite loop, I do see some kind of "swirl" developing in that area. Who knows? Could be the start of something.

[jhamps10]

The lowest pressure in the northwestern Caribbean was reported in the last hour by a ship located at 19.7N, 82.0W at 1011 mb and it's reporting moderately fast falling pressures and a 19 knot southeast wind. This and other details would seem to indicate that a surface circulation is forming at approximately 18.7N, 83W or a few miles east of where the strongest convection in the area has formed in the last hour.

I see that too, very well could be the start of something here. you can see this well in hurakan's sat image posted here.

[jhamps10]

The lowest pressure in the northwestern Caribbean was reported in the last hour by a ship located at 19.7N, 82.0W at 1011 mb and it's reporting moderately fast falling pressures and a 19 knot southeast wind. This and other details would seem to indicate that a surface circulation is forming at approximately 18.7N, 83W or a few miles east of where the strongest convection in the area has formed in the last hour.

wait a minute though, I just reread your post, wouldn't a SE wind mean that the low is NW of you?

[MiamiensisWx]

Pressures have been falling over the past ~4 hours at Owen Roberts Airport on Grand Cayman. The latest reading is ~1011 mbar.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

Additionally, the pressure has slowly decreased to ~1011 mbar at Montego Bay, Jamaica:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJS.html

Pressure is ~1014 mbar on Cayo Largo del Sur, Cuba:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCL.html

[lrak]

I wish we could wisk all the high clouds away while search for these LLCs.

[BigA]

Are there in any relatively zoomed in images that could be looped? Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

666
ABNT20 KNHC 212117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007

FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[artist]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

try this site. Choose animation and the loop number you want and either high or medium zoom and then click on the spot in the image you wish to see.