Western Caribbean Thread

[Vortex]

6z GFS

+42 low forms on wave
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

+66 low SSE of Jamaica and entering SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

+78 better organization and ***7th run*** in a row depicting almost identical position/intensity
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

+84 a little stronger.. S of Jamaica over SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

+96 nearly stationary over SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

+114 remains stationary over SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

+126 Stationary over SW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

**200mb at +126 indicates very light winds aloft and spinning over very warm waters..
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[Vortex]

6Z GFS continuation..(All models subject to large errors in intensity and location this far out)

+174 beginning to move NNW
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

+216 N of Honduras
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif

+240 Near Honduras with strong front approaching from NW
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

+276 over NW carribean
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

+300 over Western Cuba
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

+312 Accelerating NE across Florida
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_312l.gif

+324 Large storm off the Delmarva
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

+348 Sweeps up the eastern seaboard
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[robert_88]

This wave has entered the dead zone.

[Nimbus]

JB said the remnants of 94L were drifting east and would need to be watched when they got back over the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Ex 94L is well inland.Is more close to the EPAC than to the Caribbean.

[boca]

No I have to respectfully disagree with JB the remnants are moving WSW and will eventually emerge in the EPAC. The low is over the Yucatan/ Mexico border.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Recurve]

Some very cold tops on the blob in the central Carib south of Cuba now. Discussions have suggested anything developing getting swept NE, but those model runs bring it close to or over Florida. Will be watching this now.

[cycloneye]

Vortex,your thread has been merged with the Western Caribbean Thread as all the talk is about when the wave gets into the SW Caribbean,what the models do with it.

[cycloneye]

There is the wave in the Extreme Southern part of the Eastern Caribbean.

[Vortex]

Conditions at Grenada..

Point Salines, Grenada Add to My Favorites - - Add to My Portal
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Local Time: 8:27 AM AST (Set My Timezone) Lat/Lon: 12.0° N 61.8° W (Google Map)


Current Conditions
Updated: -1 sec ago
» Disable Rapid Fire — About Rapid Fire
Observed at: Point Salines, GD
Elevation: 23 ft / 7 m

75 °F / 24 °C
Heavy Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Pressure: 29.89 in / 1012 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: -
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft / 1066 m
(Above Ground Level)

[Vortex]

Wave becoming active this morning..Reports of Heavy rain and lightning across the southern windwards and Grenadines...Notice on the animation the moisture feed stretches back as far as the central atlantic...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

00z MM5 Loop

Above is the 00z MM5 model run.I post the model runs for information to the members,not because I endorse what any model shows.

[cycloneye]

Wave becoming active this morning..Reports of Heavy rain and lightning across the southern windwards and Grenadines...Notice on the animation the moisture feed stretches back as far as the central atlantic...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

What will be interersting to watch is when the wave arrives in the Westcentral Caribbean,what kind of interaction will occur with the monsoon trough that is in place now.

[boca]

How often does a monsoonal trough set up in the Caribbean?

[cycloneye]

Cayman Islands Observations

Pressures continue low in the area and winds are not too strong in the vicinity.

[jlauderdal]

00z MM5 Loop

Above is the 00z MM5 model run.I post the model runs for information to the members,not because I endorse what any model shows.

castro gets flooded out if that verifies

[Sanibel]

Probably the 94L thread should have remained separate. Oh well. I can't get a good visible satellite loop of 94L because it is located in the corner of a satellite shadow. RAMSDIS has it but it moves with the satellite motion and doesn't give a good idea of movement. I was telling people last night the key to 94L is to look at the EPAC satellite and see there's huge curvature coming from 94L and going into the Pacific. This means the Pacific has it and it should probably go that way unless the steering currents pull it back. 94L is still the trough axis even though the deep convection over Cuba looks like it is developing.

[boca]

the low south of Cuba will probably get pulled NE across Cuba and move NE across the Bahamas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

If you look closely the circulation center of this disturbance could be north of Cuba and headed NE and out to sea. We'll see if that Caribbean black-top IR is telegraphing anything.