Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

#1001 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:33 pm

Well another thing to think about. The ecmwf has been left biased all season. It has now joined the gfs with some kind of north movement into the gom or Florida. Makes you wonder if the gfs gets it right this time. What I don't agree with is the fact the gfs shows it hanging around in the southern gom for days and days.

ROCK · #1002 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

Why not? Remember the trough that turned Charley in august? The trough are abnormally strong this year.

This trof is going to dig all the way through the GOM to the Yucatan to pick up whatever is down there? are we in Dec? or mid-Sept, I forget..... :lol:

#1003 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:38 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

Why not? Remember the trough that turned Charley in august? The trough are abnormally strong this year.

This trof is going to dig all the way through the GOM to the Yucatan to pick up whatever is down there? are we in Dec? or mid-Sept, I forget.....

It did with charley not even half way through August...

#1004 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:44 pm

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I have no reason behind this but I don't see this turning N and NE so sharply. Wouldn't it be a more gradual turn than the models are showing? For example, look how gradual the turn from W to WNW to NNW has been in the recurvers this season. Would there be a reason this would go from due W to heading NE so quickly? Is it just a really strong trough, and if so, would that be common in late September?

Why not? Remember the trough that turned Charley in august? The trough are abnormally strong this year.

This trof is going to dig all the way through the GOM to the Yucatan to pick up whatever is down there? are we in Dec? or mid-Sept, I forget.....

If this happens wouldn't be until october, 10+ days from now. There really could be an amplified trough over the se us then.

#1005 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:57 pm

There's some cyclonic turning noted in the latest close-up IR just SE of barbados...Winds are also out of the NNE at barbados. May not mean much but this is exactly where the GFS for nearly 20 runs up until the other day indicated where there would be genesis...something to watch in the coming hours...

Florida1118 · #1006 Postby **Florida1118** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:01 pm

I think Matthew will be here within 72 hrs...Im surprised we don't even get a 10% on the TWO.

#1007 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:06 pm

I am very surprised NHC hasn't even mentioned it...It has model support, predict has been on it for days...

#1008 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:06 pm

If you are saying the troughs are abnormally strong this year I have to at least partially disagree. They may be stronger towards the SE, but they haven't been abnormally strong in the Western GOM. I guess it is possible that it could change, but I haven't seen any indication of it yet. I just don't think a trough is going to dig that deep and pick something up, not yet at least. I have to second Rock's comment on this one. The trough that turned Charley was EXTREMELY abnormal. It dropped temps in Houston into the low 60's in August. That is almost unheard of. I don't think there is anything to indicate that it would be a valid comparison at this point. JMHO.

#1009 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:16 pm

HPC indicates a frontal boundary aross north/central FL on day 7

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

#1010 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:26 pm

Vortex wrote:There's some cyclonic turning noted in the latest close-up IR just SE of barbados...Winds are also out of the NNE at barbados. May not mean much but this is exactly where the GFS for nearly 20 runs up until the other day indicated where there would be genesis...something to watch in the coming hours...

Presently we may not be getting much rain from this (at least not at my location) but there’s plenty of lightning to go around! It seems to be originating from clouds to my northwest.

#1011 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:46 pm

abajan wrote:
Vortex wrote:There's some cyclonic turning noted in the latest close-up IR just SE of barbados...Winds are also out of the NNE at barbados. May not mean much but this is exactly where the GFS for nearly 20 runs up until the other day indicated where there would be genesis...something to watch in the coming hours...
Presently we may not be getting much rain from this (at least not at my location) but there’s plenty of lightning to go around! It seems to be originating from clouds to my northwest.

That looks about right abajan...radar shows that cell to your NW producing the lightning. A vigirous wave with a very unstable atmosphere..it looks to be quite active the remainder of the night...

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

#1012 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:47 pm

First model(NAM) of the 00z package set to roll...

#1013 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:48 pm

Nws Miami notes this wave in the extended discussion indicating the wave is headed for the western Caribbean and the pressure gradient will increase as well as moisture for the end of the week into the weekend.

#1014 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:52 pm

Snipet from NWS miami:

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME...AND ALLOW FOR
MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA.

#1015 Postby **lonelymike** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:55 pm

Vortex wrote:HPC indicates a frontal boundary aross north/central FL on day 7

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=wbg

Yep perfect agreement with Can and Euro models.

blp · #1016 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:59 pm

18z HWRF Igor run really ramps this up in 126hr.

blp · #1017 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:04 pm

Tampa gets blasted in the 18z GFS run. Worst case scenario considering the storm surge vulnerability in that area.

#1018 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:07 pm

That would be pretty horrific for the Tampa bay area :uarrow:

Good thing it's in la la land with that run.

Aquawind · #1019 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:08 pm

Hmmmmm.. That looks like a front that as usual will not make it through the state as is..tad early.. Wether or not it lifts this pouch(lol) it could be pushed back north as a warm front or stall for development in the GOM.

Good thing it's in la la land with that run.

No doubt..

A storm like that would draw the front past the state..

Ptarmigan · #1020 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 9:10 pm

I wonder why PGI46L is not tagged as an Invest?

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