TheStormExpert wrote:Then comes Michael Ventrice saying that the Cape Verde season may only last 1-2 weeks this year.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1037691248847609859
I don't know if I can trust Ventrice's predictions anymore. As we all know, last year he said we probably wouldn't be able to buy a hurricane between September 7-25. This year, he said July would be dead (we saw two hurricanes), and before the season said he anticipated much below normal activity this season. It's looking likely ACE will at least be close to normal. Last year, I also remember him saying not a lot was going on in the tropics during Jose, and then a less than a week later Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico nearly at Category 5 intensity. He puts way too much stock into the "base state" with his forecasts and not enough into climatology.