2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... A bit more active... Everything getting pulled N quickly, +NAO??

[mantis83]

6z GEFS

https://i.postimg.cc/SQVbGyDY/37999414.gif

looks like recurve city on those maps....

[ConvergenceZone]

6z GEFS

https://i.postimg.cc/SQVbGyDY/37999414.gif

looks like recurve city on those maps....

That actually makes sense as Met WXMAN mentioned the Bermuda High not being near as strong as forecasted.

[Stormlover70]

Bad news for weather weannies. Great news for life and property.

[Stratton23]

That can easily flip lol

[Ubuntwo]

6z GEFS

https://i.postimg.cc/SQVbGyDY/37999414.gif

looks like recurve city on those maps....

That actually makes sense as Met WXMAN mentioned the Bermuda High not being near as strong as forecasted.

This same met called for a TS or low end cat 1 Beryl into Belize not making it into the Gulf except for ‘maybe briefly into the BOC’, I would never take an individual’s word as gospel. You know as well as the rest of upper-level setups change on a dime this far out, most of those tracks were into the Carib two runs ago.

[IcyTundra]

looks like recurve city on those maps....

That actually makes sense as Met WXMAN mentioned the Bermuda High not being near as strong as forecasted.

This same met called for a TS or low end cat 1 Beryl into Belize not making it into the Gulf except for ‘maybe briefly into the BOC’, I would never take an individual’s word as gospel. You know as well as the rest of upper-level setups change on a dime this far out, most of those tracks were into the Carib two runs ago.

I agree it’s usually best to get opinions from multiple different meteorologists to form your opinion. Wxman is great and one of the many meteorologists I pay attention to.

[Ubuntwo]

That actually makes sense as Met WXMAN mentioned the Bermuda High not being near as strong as forecasted.

This same met called for a TS or low end cat 1 Beryl into Belize not making it into the Gulf except for ‘maybe briefly into the BOC’, I would never take an individual’s word as gospel. You know as well as the rest of upper-level setups change on a dime this far out, most of those tracks were into the Carib two runs ago.

I agree it’s usually best to get opinions from multiple different meteorologists to form your opinion. Wxman is great and one of the many meteorologists I pay attention to.

Agreed, the idea is nobody is infallible. Collate many opinions and form your own.

[boca]

I was always under the impression that in a possible La Niña or in this case cool neutral that the Bermuda high would be stronger. I guess it’s not the case or just temporary.

[toad strangler]

I was always under the impression that in a possible La Niña or in this case cool neutral that the Bermuda high would be stronger. I guess it’s not the case or just temporary.

None of that is set in stone. No way, no how. Both NOAA and CSU (among others!) will tell you that tracks are largely dependent on short term environment.

[Stratton23]

And just like i thought, the operational GFS is starting to play catch up to the other models, finally starting to see the atlantic getting going towards the end of its run

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Posted this elsewhere:

[SFLcane]

Holy landfall look! I will pretty shocked not to see anything out there to start Sept nearing peak unless something was missed and that would be an understatment at that point.

Toying with fire with this kind of pattern which off course means nothing with no tc's.

[WaveBreaking]

I was always under the impression that in a possible La Niña or in this case cool neutral that the Bermuda high would be stronger. I guess it’s not the case or just temporary.

To play devil’s advocate, the euro has a known bias of underforecasting the strength of the Bermuda-Azores High in the long range (not sure about the gfs). Also, the general trend for models this year has been forecasting storms to track more north than where actually go (i.e., Debby, Ernesto near the Leeward Islands), with Beryl being the exception during its final landfall at Texas.

[wxman57]

It's amazing that we're approaching the peak of the season in 3 weeks and the models are not showing any significant development over the next two weeks. Some here are resorting to finding a possible storm in an odd ensemble member or two. Typically, about half the storms develop prior to Sept. 10th. We might be able to squeeze out another 2-3 named storms by then, making the total 7-8 named storms for the first half of the season (with Sept. 10 as the mid-point). It's going to be hard to reach even 20 named storms unless September turns out to be extremely active with 8-10 named storms and October is equally active. ACE is another story. A single long-tracked major hurricane can generate 50-60 ACE points, so we could be "hyperactive" ACE-wise but a little above normal numbers-wise. I know how quickly the tropics can switch "on", though, but my numbers are now 19/8/5 and that may be a bit too high.

Numbers don't really matter, though. What matters is where the storms track. For now, the Bermuda high is weaker than predicted. We can track waves moving across the MDR, but they're having trouble generating convection due to dry, sinking air. Will this suddenly change over the next 2-3 weeks? The year started off as I suspected, with a long-tracked strong hurricane tracking across the Caribbean. After Beryl, though, things changed. Debby recurved over the NE Caribbean, and other waves just can't generate convection in the MDR.

Those of you in the NE Caribbean, like Luis, are certainly not "out of the woods", as conditions across the MDR will likely become more favorable eventually. Just because waves can't maintain convection in the Caribbean now doesn't mean Gulf Coast residents are safe from any hurricane threat. I've seen many convectionless waves move across the Caribbean suddenly blow up into hurricanes near the Yucatan and move north into the coast. I keep telling my team to track all waves moving across the MDR and Caribbean, as they can blow up in the NW Caribbean and become a "surprise" hurricane in the Gulf.

Let's hope for the best (fewer storms and a reduced risk) but always prepare for the worst.

[TomballEd]

Harvey was not yet a hurricane, so two hurricanes and a TS. My bad. But the point remains the tropics aren't about to explode. 2017, to this point, is not 2024.

If we're defining "about to explode" as "going to produce a major hurricane within the next 7 days" then sure, but I can basically guarantee you that 2 (maybe even up to 3 if things progress much slower than expected but I personally doubt that'll happen) weeks from now there will be no more discussion of the season being cancelled or seriously busting relative to expectations. Whether the tropics start really blowing up in the last week of August or the second week of September shouldn't really matter all that much, this season is still extremely likely to meet the hyperactive threshold of 175 ACE or whatever it is, very likely to exceed 200 ACE in my opinion regardless of when "the switch" fully comes into fruition, and has at least like a 25-30% chance of surpassing 2017's ACE of 224.9.

I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong, but either way I still think it's too early to begin doubting the seasonal forecasts put out by CSU, NCSU, NOAA, etc. when we're still nearly two weeks away from September and more than three weeks away from the climatological peak of the season. Will the Atlantic break the all-time ACE record as I predicted in my seasonal forecast submission? Probably not at this point since that would require more consistent activity throughout July/August, but until there's real evidence that the tropics aren't going to ramp up sometime in the next 2ish weeks I see no reason to believe that it won't happen.

We play this game every year until there is 3 hurricanes spinning across the Atl 9/10

None of my posts say season cancel or there won't be storms in September. This is a 16 day thread. Beyond that, Euro weeklies suggest the Atlantic wakes up early September. Euro weeklies suggest near normal ACE the first two weeks of September. There is just a hint of a signal that beyond 10 days a wave that came off Africa may try to develop. That would be about the beginning of September. Weaker signal for an attempt at Caribbean development starting just before 10 days. Euro ensemble mean shear becomes favorable in the Caribbean and MDR after 10 days (ie, September) I'm, not ruling out a 2020 S-O-N heavy season.

[TomballEd]

IMBY, while there have been October storms in 1989 and in the late 1940s, the Equinox means end of season.

Mildly nervous record SSTs might extend that, but I still expect the Westerlies to be screaming over my head in 6 weeks.

Florida, Kate in November (1985?) all year is the season there.

[SFLcane]

It's amazing that we're approaching the peak of the season in 3 weeks and the models are not showing any significant development over the next two weeks. Some here are resorting to finding a possible storm in an odd ensemble member or two. Typically, about half the storms develop prior to Sept. 10th. We might be able to squeeze out another 2-3 named storms by then, making the total 7-8 named storms for the first half of the season (with Sept. 10 as the mid-point). It's going to be hard to reach even 20 named storms unless September turns out to be extremely active with 8-10 named storms and October is equally active. ACE is another story. A single long-tracked major hurricane can generate 50-60 ACE points, so we could be "hyperactive" ACE-wise but a little above normal numbers-wise. I know how quickly the tropics can switch "on", though, but my numbers are now 19/8/5 and that may be a bit too high.

Numbers don't really matter, though. What matters is where the storms track. For now, the Bermuda high is weaker than predicted. We can track waves moving across the MDR, but they're having trouble generating convection due to dry, sinking air. Will this suddenly change over the next 2-3 weeks? The year started off as I suspected, with a long-tracked strong hurricane tracking across the Caribbean. After Beryl, though, things changed. Debby recurved over the NE Caribbean, and other waves just can't generate convection in the MDR.

Those of you in the NE Caribbean, like Luis, are certainly not "out of the woods", as conditions across the MDR will likely become more favorable eventually. Just because waves can't maintain convection in the Caribbean now doesn't mean Gulf Coast residents are safe from any hurricane threat. I've seen many convectionless waves move across the Caribbean suddenly blow up into hurricanes near the Yucatan and move north into the coast. I keep telling my team to track all waves moving across the MDR and Caribbean, as they can blow up in the NW Caribbean and become a "surprise" hurricane in the Gulf.

Let's hope for the best (fewer storms and a reduced risk) but always prepare for the worst.

Hello, wxman can you please elaborate a bit more on what this is based on? Just becasue ernesto recurved it still managed to affect land infact all storms this year in my opinion it surely does not mean things will remain status quo into sept.

[SFLcane]

Something better pop within the next 2 weeks or there might be mass exodus in the wx community i think everyone is getting just a tad anxious lol.

[Teban54]

12z GEFS shows a S/W shift compared to 6z. The Caribbean cluster is even further south than 0z (which was already south of 6z), though the other cluster that goes just N of the Greater Antilles is north of 0z.

This is why you don't scream "recurve city" based on a single model run.