TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A thousand replies!!! Lets make another thousand!!!

[CronkPSU]

A thousand post!!! Lets make another thousand!!!

just imagine when/if it ever becomes a hurricane looking for a spot on the east coast to land on

[WeatherEmperor]

I told you this thread would reach 1000 posts before days end.

<RICKY>

[du1st]

Who knows irene has made it this far.

[Andrew92]

damn bipolar storm, make up your mind

That or the fact that she's female.

I just hope she doesn't intensify as some are saying, because I'm now really beginning to question if this really will be a fish.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all who haved replied in this official Irene thread for comments,Sat Pics and Model Runs.Only minor discussions that crossed a fine line haved occured but the vast majority of the discussions haved been educational and with plenty of data.This thread will continue open to recieve the same imput from the members about Irene regardless of what she does in the future.

[Canelaw99]

wow, amazing we have 49 pages already for a storm with 35 mph winds...there ought to be a rule that the number of pages can't be greater than the mph

Look at it this way: at least we don't have a new thread for all these ideas

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no way this is going to become any more then a cat1 hurricane. I will eat crow if it doe's.

[WeatherEmperor]

gosh i wonder what will happen if a Cat 5 is bearing down on us.

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Want it baked or fried?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have got a question about the high pressure system Benson posted a graphic of earlier tonight. What is forecast to happen later this week into the weekned? Will it continue to build westward and merge with the high over the SW US and be even stronger or gradually pull east and leave another weakness?

[WeatherEmperor]

Want it baked or fried?

hes gonna need a big servin.

<RICKY>

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ok SWAG time since I am not a pro:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's my take;

The ridge is locked in for now and will steer Irene if strengthening occurs to strong TS or higher. I can't see the low level winds ( UW is out, anybody got a link?) but I presume the westerlies will continue push her in her until she gets past the dry air. Overall I think a track W-SW-W though 96 hrs is most likely around the "bottom" of the ridge. From there I can't say because I don't know enough about the trough that will push in from the eastern US. The models, in all there wagging back and forth seem to bear this out. This would explain the NHC forecast track.

As far as intensity it's anybody's game since there is a potential for significant intensification given the SST's and anticyclonic winds aloft. She looks bad now, but I am unsure of the LLC's health. It looks the weakest I have seen it, but I am not ready to say it's "Goodnight Irene"
Unfortunatley we'll have to wait it out

I just don't see where the models have the same ridge I am looking at now.

Flame away

[Hurricanehink]

The storm is getting more organized, no doubt. The circulation, IMO, is getting embedded in the convection, and though it is small, it is almost infinitely better than yesterday. The question is, where and how strong? Carolinas might get this one as stronger than many might think.
(This is just the opinion of the poster, do not take it for anything official, consult NHC for anything official)

[Astro_man92]

If you look at the water vapor loop it looks like Irene is struggleing right now If it makes it through the dry air I think it is going to have to do battle with a ULL I don't think is going to make it to the coast once it hits that ULL I think it is done for. Unless the ULL just pushes it off or misses Irene entierly. Is there even a ULL there or is just a stay low???(the circulation near the coast). You can't really see the battle in the visible loop as well

[clfenwi]

I tell you what...and this has been my whole thing on all of my forecast tracks....i have been left of the guidance ever since we started...my big reason is because she is just not strenghening...and until i see a true WNW path..im not budging...

That's pretty much the way I was with Emily. She rolled due west for days but most of the models wanted to take her wnw right off the start. So, I went with the models that weren't doing that.

Nailed the first landfall point, was too far south on the second.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 211#953211

so, does your instinct tell you more westward?? im just thinking i don't see that changing right now...do you? and thanks for that info

It is hard to not go with persistence in the short term without compelling reasons to do so. A forecast model showing a change (especialy if it is a change that it has showed in the past and has not occurred) is not a compelling reason. After all, the first source for your forecast should be actual observations. The very last thing to look at should be the models.

As far as how I feel, well, if I were consistent in my philosophy, then yes, I would go more west at least in the short term.

As far as long term thinking goes.... my first thought at the beginning of this was either a fair chance of the storm running up the Carolina coast (brushing it) or the storm recurving well before land. After the repositioning to the north on Friday, I was thinking very high probability of the storm curving to sea and next to none of running the coast in any fashion. With the way Irene has pushed west over the past 36 hours or so, I'm leaning more towards the 'run the coast' scenario again.

(http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif is the sort of thing I mean by 'running the coast'. Obviously, far from an exact analog, but it does show what I mean in the general sense).

Irene has been a royal pain in the butt because of her refusal to strengthen. That has probably screwed with the computer models a good deal as well as the humans, because we don't get that much practice with forecasting a depression for days on end. I wouldn't be surprised that the FSU Super-Ensemble is having a rough time of it, because the record of long-lived depressions is so thin. The climatology is full of depressions that quickly turn into 'well-behaved' tropical storms and hurricanes. Not many cases like Irene.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well said clfenwi, I have been thinking this had a Isabell or even Fran track last week. more like Isabelle so far.

[johngaltfla]

09/2345 UTC 22.2N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Latest SSD position/intensity estimate

wow, .4s and .1w

Ugh. She's reforming overnight. Guess it's time to break out the Maxwell House for the weekend again.

[deltadog03]

man...great post...thank you very much...i am about to throw out #6...take a look if you can...and let me know what ya think...thanks again

[Sanibel]

I think the ULL east of Flroida is collapsing...