TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JamesFromMaine2]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


we were talking about the models on teamspeak for nhcwx! Right now the models were expecting it to already be a tropical storm so since its not yet it had to push the track to the west which they are doing however now that its getting its act togeither and will be a tropical storm by the end of the day today (monday) the models will get a better handel on whats going on with it and they should move back to the east once it becomes a tropical storm! IMO it will NOT be going into south or central America! IMO it will go between cuba and mexico before turning north east into Florida! and please note I am not -removed- since I live in Maine!

[vaffie]

This is my humble attempt at a forecast.
Sorry, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Still pay close attention Texas, Florida.
Maximum strength = Cat 4 just before making landfall in Yucatan and again in the Gulf of Mexico
Landfall = Strong Cat 2 to weak Cat 3 just east of New Orleans.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mitch 1998 moved into the BOC
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Roxanne
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like she's moving SSW.Vaffie that's a very scary track if that verifies they'll be nothing there to get damaged or destroyed.

[Brent]

This is my humble attempt at a forecast.
Sorry, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Still pay close attention Texas, Florida.
Maximum strength = Cat 4 just before making landfall in Yucatan and again in the Gulf of Mexico
Landfall = Strong Cat 2 to weak Cat 3 just east of New Orleans.

I. HATE. YOU.

(Not personally )

We do need the rain though... boring boring. FIRE warnings today.

[Ivanhater]

later next sunday

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a Stan like system.

[Brent]

just cant believe it.

Matt

I can't either... but then again, who could believe we've have 2 strong Cat 4's in July... or two Cat 5's in the Gulf three and a half weeks apart?

[canetracker]

This is my humble attempt at a forecast.
Sorry, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Still pay close attention Texas, Florida.
Maximum strength = Cat 4 just before making landfall in Yucatan and again in the Gulf of Mexico
Landfall = Strong Cat 2 to weak Cat 3 just east of New Orleans.

Vaffie,
Don't want that track for sure!!

[boca]

Watching TD24 is like watching Kyle of 2003 not knowing which way to go.

[Stratosphere747]

Wish we had visible....

Looks almost as if we could be having a reformation of the center. Otherwise the center is almost completely exposed of convection per the 11pm advisory.

[Ivanhater]

NEXT MONDAY just sitting

[ameriwx2003]

While the GFS keeps Wilma in the Caribbean and then sitting over the Yucatan Peninsula.. the 0Z Canadian has Wilma making Landfall just North of Tampa on Friday Morning. It will be interesting to see the rest of the Global model runs from 0Z .

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_108.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wish we had visible....

Looks almost as if we could be having a reformation of the center. Otherwise the center is almost completely exposed of convection per the 11pm advisory.

Looks like Shear to me coming down from the north?

[vaffie]

This is my humble attempt at a forecast.
Sorry, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Still pay close attention Texas, Florida.
Maximum strength = Cat 4 just before making landfall in Yucatan and again in the Gulf of Mexico
Landfall = Strong Cat 2 to weak Cat 3 just east of New Orleans.

I. HATE. YOU.

(Not personally )

We do need the rain though... boring boring. FIRE warnings today.

Sorry, guys, I didn't want anyone to hate me. I almost hate myself for putting up such a dreadful forecast, but the more I looked at the models and how they've shifted and thought about the way everything is wester this year than normal, and the time of year, the more likely it seemed that eastern Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi seemed the likeliest. But like I said--TEXAS SHOULD NOT LET THEIR GUARD DOWN. I don't think BOC is likely--not this late in the season and it is too far north already for that--this could still be a western Louisiana, upper Texas threat--the "weak front" might just be strong enough to pull it north or northwest towards Texas if it manages to get past 90W. Whatever happens, this is going to be BAD for somebody, I'm sorry. And the New Orleans or Houston-Galveston scenarios are just about the worst ones I can imagine too.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am sorry but I just buy the GFS yet. Am I the only one who thinks that?

Matt

[Ivanhater]

next wed... back in caribbean, haaaa

[Wnghs2007]

next wed... back in caribbean, haaaa

Now this run is getting screwy. lol

[Ivanhater]

ok im done with that....very funny run tonight

[jkt21787]

next wed... back in caribbean, haaaa

Now this run is getting screwy. lol

OK, time to throw the GFS out...