Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Just my thoughts at this point. I am thinking, like a few of the models, that the circulation I have circled in red will drift east and be affected by the wave in orange. (sorry about my untrained eyes, the location of the wave may not be right.) I'm not going to guess at what is going to happen next because I don't think even the models have it entirely. I think at least the area in blue should 'bear watch' at this time.

Any comments on my comments or the graphic will be appreciated, bad good or otherwise, and be used constructively.

Also, if anyone can explain how to spot a wave any easier, it would be appreciated.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Just my thoughts at this point. I am thinking, like a few of the models, that the circulation I have circled in red will drift east and be affected by the wave in orange. (sorry about my untrained eyes, the location of the wave may not be right.) I'm not going to guess at what is going to happen next because I don't think even the models have it entirely. I think at least the area in blue should 'bear watch' at this time.

Any comments on my comments or the graphic will be appreciated, bad good or otherwise, and be used constructively.

Also, if anyone can explain how to spot a wave any easier, it would be appreciated.

I posted the same senario and Aric Dunn said its the wave further west than what you have there which would get the area going,the wave that you have there is too far east.

[Aric Dunn]

ok folks we have surface low analyzed in the Sw carrib.. and for those wondering where the wave is that will help get the spin going has was said the the discussion. as that wave begins to interact with the low more over night i would not be surprised to see a lot more convection as the night progresses


its here on this map

[JonathanBelles]

I was having a hard time, with an untrained eye, seeing the other wave...although the HPC did have it.

[gatorcane]

Latest TAFB surface forecast now shows a 1006MB low in the SW Caribbean. Notice the tropical wave Boca is mentioning with wave axis passing through Jamaica. I guess if things are going to happen its starting to happen as we type tonight....

BTW - GFS nailing the scenario so far. I'm very impressed with the GFS.

[gatorcane]

Aric Dunn I noticed you just beat me to it. Nice

Maybe the title of this thread should indicate we now have a surface low in the SW Caribbean?

[Aric Dunn]

I was having a hard time, with an untrained eye, seeing the other wave...although the HPC did have it.

they use a few different methods... visible, surface obs . the TPW, and a few others ... to locate waves.

[Aric Dunn]

this is a new thing they have been using now.. its very helpful .



for some reason thats old.. hmmm,,,

[MiamiensisWx]

In terms of the setup, this honestly looks very similar to the pre-TC stages of several surface lows that became tropical storms on the Atlantic side. The westerly flow at 850 mb is a positive for slow development. Does the pre-Alberto system ring a bell?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[boca]

this is a new thing they have been using now.. its very helpful .

Does that show moisture flow or vorticity.The 00NAM at 84hrs shows five lows all clustered around a 400 miles radius.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084m.gif

[gatorcane]

In terms of the setup, this honestly looks very similar to the pre-TC stages of several surface lows that became tropical storms on the Atlantic side. The westerly flow at 850 mb is a positive for slow development. Does the pre-Alberto system ring a bell?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Indeed...indeed here is the 850 mb relative vorticity, notice the EPAC and SW Caribbean areas:

[Aric Dunn]

here you go who ever wants to track waves ..
its well a " wave tracker" lol

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... waves.html

[Aric Dunn]

In terms of the setup, this honestly looks very similar to the pre-TC stages of several surface lows that became tropical storms on the Atlantic side. The westerly flow at 850 mb is a positive for slow development. Does the pre-Alberto system ring a bell?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Indeed...indeed here is the 850 mb relative vorticity, notice the EPAC and SW Caribbean areas:

here is another vort map ...

[Aric Dunn]

ok here is the updated TPW .. and you can clearly see the wave approaching the islands..and even the wave approaching the Sw carrib.. it has a little spike as it goes the thru the carrib

[Aric Dunn]

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 19N...FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF A LARGE INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST AND OTHER SHOWERS MOVING NW ACROSS HAITI AND
JAMAICA. THE WAVE POSITION AGREES WELL WITH EXTRAPOLATION AND
THE CIMSS 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY TRACKER. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND LEAD TO A NORTHWARD SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE REST OF THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W-80W.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

there is only one problem with those images.. you have to make sure how recent it is.. there is a disclaimer above the images " The images may contain data up to 22 hours previous from update time.
Details of orbit data files that go into the plots can be found here." so you have to check and make sure ..

[RL3AO]

Or you could just look at the time on the bottom where it says 23:41.

[Aric Dunn]

here is always a good thing to keep in mind this season and all season if you are going to track tropical system and or developing ones as this .... it is the criteria for issuance of TCFA's .. you should go thru it and see what is there and not with any system that is not a invest to see if and when they might make it one .. and test yourself against when you think all the criteria is met and when they actually issue a tcfa

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

[Aric Dunn]

00z 18hr gfs