2018 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 25 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



2. A broad low pressure system located about 500 miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is
expected over the next several days, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[Ntxw]

Next names up on the list is Miriam, Norman, and Olivia. Miriam and Norman will likely be taken by the two areas colored. 18z GFS has Olivia and Paul in the longer range but way out there for now.

[cycloneye]

Next names up on the list is Miriam, Norman, and Olivia. Miriam and Norman will likely be taken by the two areas colored. 18z GFS has Olivia and Paul in the longer range but way out there for now.

If what GFS has pans out,then the 200 ACE mark will be reached fast.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up

[cycloneye]

EPac continues to give birth to Tropical Cyclones as the active period continues to extend after Hector and Lane.We have TD Fifteen-E (Miriam) poised to rack up big ACE numbers and INVEST 90E (Norman) will do the same with even racking up much more than Miriam after it is upgraded.The 200 ACE mark will be reached with Miriam and Norman.Wow,what a hyperactive season the basin has turned out to be in 2018 and after these two are gone,there will be more on the pipe.

[Ntxw]

Might want to start thinking about a top 5 ACE season for the EPAC. The two projected long trackers could each produce 25-30+ easily and that will get it to 200 or more. Anything after is going to to be padding numbers.

When Aletta went beyond forecast to many's surprise as the first storm, was a precursor to the favorable atmosphere. More like what Amanda/Andres did.

[1900hurricane]

With Lane's downgrade, August ACE is at 108 units even right now. The September 1992 basin ACE record is in trouble at this point with two more imminent tropical storms.

[cycloneye]

Season is at 13/6/4 with newly named Tropical Storm Miriam.

[Shell Mound]

With Lane's downgrade, August ACE is at 108 units even right now. The September 1992 basin ACE record is in trouble at this point with two more imminent tropical storms.

Much of that ACE is likely to be discarded in a credible posthumous analysis (finalised TCR-based best track), given that CPHC grossly overestimated Lane's intensity during its weakening phases. Based on satellite data, the high-bias errors were of substantial magnitude: on the order of 30 knots or more at times. For instance, after Lane's initial Cat-4 peak of 120 knots, it likely weakened to below major-hurricane status, as subsequent satellite imagery suggested only a strong Cat-1 (~80 knots) at most, though CPHC maintained the best track at Cat-3 intensity. Obviously, after attaining its secondary, Cat-5 peak of 140 knots, Lane weakened much more rapidly than officially depicted, as it neared the Hawaiian Islands. CPHC was maintaining the winds at 90 knots when satellite and land data showed only a low-end TS by then. Even slight downward adjustments to Irma (2017) made a rather noticeable difference in ACE totals, so any big adjustments to Lane's intensity would shave quite a bit of the seasonal ACE.

[Ntxw]

With Lane's downgrade,August ACE is at 108 units even right now. The September 1992 basin ACE record is in trouble at this point with two more imminent tropical storms.

Much of that ACE is likely to be discarded in a credible posthumous analysis (finalised TCR-based best track), given that CPHC grossly overestimated Lane's intensity during its weakening phases. Based on satellite data, the high-bias errors were of substantial magnitude: on the order of 30 knots or more at times. For instance, after Lane's initial Cat-4 peak of 120 knots, it likely weakened to below major-hurricane status, as subsequent satellite imagery suggested only a strong Cat-1 (~80 knots) at most, though CPHC maintained the best track at Cat-3 intensity. Obviously, after attaining its secondary, Cat-5 peak of 140 knots, Lane weakened much more rapidly than officially depicted, as it neared the Hawaiian Islands. CPHC was maintaining the winds at 90 knots when satellite and land data showed only a low-end TS by then. Even slight downward adjustments to Irma (2017) made a rather noticeable difference in ACE totals, so any big adjustments to Lane's intensity would shave quite a bit of the seasonal ACE.

Also some low estimates prior to Cat 5 status as well. Hector may also need to be re-looked at so in my opinion it may not be substantial markups or down in the end net wise. Miriam alone the next few days will make up for it regardless. You're looking at a few points here and there which is within margins, tenths of a point a day is not going to swing it wildy.

[cycloneye]

There will be plenty of fuel out there for TS Miriam,future Norman and the ones that will form on long range if GFS/Euro are right.

[Astromanía]

Is it possible have an hyperactive season in both EPAC and NATL in one year?

[Ntxw]

Is it possible have an hyperactive season in both EPAC and NATL in one year?

It's not very likely. You can have similar ACE finishes when both are near normal. But to have one be Hyperactive, the other is not likely to be hyperactive due to the nature of favored areas of rising motion and shifts of the walker circulation etc. See-saw relationship.

[Astromanía]

Is it possible have an hyperactive season in both EPAC and NATL in one year?

It's not very likely. You can have similar ACE finishes when both are near normal. But to have one be Hyperactive, the other is not likely to be hyperactive due to the nature of favored areas of rising motion and shifts of the walker circulation etc. See-saw relationship.

So we might expect a near average season for NATL this year at best, right?

[Ntxw]

Is it possible have an hyperactive season in both EPAC and NATL in one year?

It's not very likely. You can have similar ACE finishes when both are near normal. But to have one be Hyperactive, the other is not likely to be hyperactive due to the nature of favored areas of rising motion and shifts of the walker circulation etc. See-saw relationship.

So we might expect a near average season for NATL this year at best, right?

Probably so if you are using the EPAC as a measuring stick. The hyperactive Atlantic seasons (1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017) were all near normal or below normal EPAC seasons (using 1971 as starting point since EPAC data is limited prior). For the EPAC years that went over 200 ACE (1978, 1983, 1990, 1992, 1993, 2015) were near normal to below normal Atlantic seasons. Sample size being small as a caveat. 2016 is probably the closest year that both seasons were well above normal ACE almost to hyperactive threshold.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Is it possible have an hyperactive season in both EPAC and NATL in one year?

I doubt it.

But in 2016, the ATL was (close to) hyperactive since it was definitely above-average and the EPAC was hyperactive, the last season in the 2014-16 string.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Going for a rather active season, possibly a repeat of 2006.... I can't give my numners yet, but I like the names in this list, especially Lane, Olivia, my name (Sergio)and Tara!!

Forgot Hector. Add Miriam and Norman to these. I was not really impressed with short-lived Aletta and Bud.

I'm going with 21/12/8 (give or take two) with an ACE index of slightly over 200. Yes, I expect six of the next seven to eight storms to become hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Here comes another one.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to form well south or
southwest the coast of southwestern Mexico later this week.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has us to Sergio by day 16.