2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

I guess some will not like this Webb thread.

It's sound analysis. It's SAL season and that could extend all the way through July and then some. We'll see if something threads the needle in the MDR or if something pops closer to the western side of the basin in the period pre 7/15

[TheStormExpert]

How is SAL comparing to years past or even hyperactive seasons like 2004, 2005, 2010, and 2017? Seems to be much more dense and widespread so far this season.

[aspen]

If SAL sticks around for much or most of July, and conditions become favorable again by August, I think we could have an inactive “season canceled!” July followed by a surprise ramp-up of activity that catches people off guard.

[Nuno]

So no doubt it looks to be shaping up to be an above normal season. But keep in mind we could end up with something like 2010 where we had slot of Cape Verde storms that recurved due to a weak/displaced Bermuda High and weakness over the Central Atlantic.

So far the Bermuda High has been displaced either south or way to the NE in the Atlantic allowing southerly and southwesterly flow across Florida. Even the big SAL surge will likely stay south over the Caribbean. This pattern is quite a bit different than 2015-2018 where SAL impacted Florida in June due to deep-layer easterly windflow.

One has to think that Florida and SE US might need to look to the south this year as this could be a year the Caribbean cranks out some significant hurricanes.

Gator, I want to tell you something. In April 2017, I started getting this weird feeling in my stomach. I felt this need to watch Hurricane Andrew videos on Youtube from TWC. I watched John Hope discuss Andrew in legendary fashion. I just couldnt stop watching the videos over and over because I had this weird feeling that months later a Category 5 hurricane would be staring down South Florida and as we all know, Irma threatened South Florida as a Cat 5 and that brought flashbacks to me having this funny feeling 5 months before Irma hit. Luckily, SE Florida dodged a major bullet but my gut was right...something was gonna come for South Florida.

Fast forward to 2020, and I developed another one of those gut feelings. This time, I am constantly drawn to Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Irene (1999) videos on Youtube. I cant stop watching them. I have this deep feeling in my gut that Florida will get hit this year from a big hurricane coming from the SW Caribbean.

Maybe I am just being silly, but my gut feeling was right in 2017 and I fear it may be right again in 2020. The pattern and atmosphere just seem to be screaming for a FL hit from the Caribbean this year


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Interesting WeatherEmperor. If we do manage to get hit this year I really think it would be from a Caribbean system recurving through Florida maybe in October or late September. For some reason I don’t have that feeling we will get hit this year. I did not have a good feeling about 2017 though. I see a busy season but no direct hits for South Florida from any hurricanes. I see a lot of recurving hurricanes east of the islands and the US and some west runners in the Caribbean impacting Central America, the Yucatán and the GOM.

Thing is, it takes a lot to "go right" for a storm to hit South Florida. SFL is kind of protected by Cuba and the Caribbean islands which weaken anything that come through it, and then you have the Bahamas in front of FL which typically take the brunt of storms recurving away from FL. South Florida is a bit tricky for a storm, even look at Irma.

[toad strangler]

How is SAL comparing to years past or even hyperactive seasons like 2004, 2005, 2010, and 2017? Seems to be much more dense and widespread so far this season.

The first main SAL burst this past week has been abnormally strong. The subsequent bursts look to be or are at least modeled to be more like your average SAL burst. So, it's SAL season. That's where we are. June and July are not big months for tropical activity and much but not all of that can be attributed to SAL.

[toad strangler]

Thing is, it takes a lot to "go right" for a storm to hit South Florida. SFL is kind of protected by Cuba and the Caribbean islands which weaken anything that come through it, and then you have the Bahamas in front of FL which typically take the brunt of storms recurving away from FL. South Florida is a bit tricky for a storm, even look at Irma.

All kinds of incorrect here. South FL has had more hits than any CONUS area in well over 100 plus years of tracking. I posted a strike map a page or two back. There are three distinct hot spot zones. The Upper Gulf Coast, South FL, and North Carolina.

[Nuno]

All kinds of incorrect here. South FL has had more hits than any CONUS area in well over 100 plus years of tracking. I posted a strike map a page or two back.

I'm not disputing that, but South FL would be Philippines-tier if not for it's location west enough to benefit from troughing and land that surrounds it to its south. Even a storm like Wilma had to crawl through the Yucatan. Florida's geography helps minimize severe impacts.

[toad strangler]

All kinds of incorrect here. South FL has had more hits than any CONUS area in well over 100 plus years of tracking. I posted a strike map a page or two back.

I'm not disputing that, but South FL would be Philippines-tier if not for it's location west enough to benefit from troughing and land that surrounds it to its south. Even a storm like Wilma had to crawl through the Yucatan. Florida's geography helps minimize severe impacts.

Are you moving the goal posts here lol

[Nuno]

All kinds of incorrect here. South FL has had more hits than any CONUS area in well over 100 plus years of tracking. I posted a strike map a page or two back.

I'm not disputing that, but South FL would be Philippines-tier if not for it's location west enough to benefit from troughing and land that surrounds it to its south. Even a storm like Wilma had to crawl through the Yucatan. Florida's geography helps minimize severe impacts.

Are you moving the goal posts here lol

Moreso I wasn't clear in the previous post. Things have to go right for Florida to get hit with a severe hurricane that doesn't deal with weakening from land.

[toad strangler]

I'm not disputing that, but South FL would be Philippines-tier if not for it's location west enough to benefit from troughing and land that surrounds it to its south. Even a storm like Wilma had to crawl through the Yucatan. Florida's geography helps minimize severe impacts.

Are you moving the goal posts here lol

Moreso I wasn't clear in the previous post. Things have to go right for Florida to get hit with a severe hurricane that doesn't deal with weakening from land.

I see your point, but history says otherwise.

[Nuno]

Are you moving the goal posts here lol

Moreso I wasn't clear in the previous post. Things have to go right for Florida to get hit with a severe hurricane that doesn't deal with weakening from land.

I see your point, but history says otherwise.

http://i.ibb.co/Qf5M1WD/return-mjrhurr.jpg

Our sample size makes it difficult to tell. Were the 1940s and 1950s an aberration? Or is the lull between Betsy and Andrew the aberration? Dade county hasn't seen major hurricane conditions in 28 years, and far longer if you count the city of Miami itself.

[toad strangler]

Moreso I wasn't clear in the previous post. Things have to go right for Florida to get hit with a severe hurricane that doesn't deal with weakening from land.

I see your point, but history says otherwise.

http://i.ibb.co/Qf5M1WD/return-mjrhurr.jpg

Our sample size makes it difficult to tell. Were the 1940s and 1950s an aberration? Or is the lull between Betsy and Andrew the aberration? Dade county hasn't seen major hurricane conditions in 28 years, and far longer if you count the city of Miami itself.

You are definitely moving goal posts now. No worries, I'm done

[Nuno]

I see your point, but history says otherwise.

http://i.ibb.co/Qf5M1WD/return-mjrhurr.jpg

Our sample size makes it difficult to tell. Were the 1940s and 1950s an aberration? Or is the lull between Betsy and Andrew the aberration? Dade county hasn't seen major hurricane conditions in 28 years, and far longer if you count the city of Miami itself.

You are definitely moving goal posts now. No worries, I'm done

I mean, I'm not, but if you say so Your map is just averages, the history speaks for itself in South Florida

[toad strangler]

Our sample size makes it difficult to tell. Were the 1940s and 1950s an aberration? Or is the lull between Betsy and Andrew the aberration? Dade county hasn't seen major hurricane conditions in 28 years, and far longer if you count the city of Miami itself.

You are definitely moving goal posts now. No worries, I'm done

I mean, I'm not, but if you say so Your map is just averages, the history speaks for itself in South Florida

It's not my map LOL

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1274839316519358465

[Steve]

I guess some will not like this Webb thread.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1274804010596405258

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1274807563150917633

What I don’t like is that if this sal outbreak was a tropical low instead of a dry one, it’s coming straight for us Thursday. We won’t have the same issues as St B in the photos above, more likely redder sunsets and dryer, dustier air than usual.

[USTropics]

SAL is a common feature in every season, and can often be a signal of an active WAM. Even in hyperactive seasons, there are periods where SAL essentially shuts everything down:



Here is a large animated loop from June 1st to the 20th of the current SAL outbreak:


Despite the current conditions, we still have a very active WAM (which has contributed to the increase in SAL):

[hurricanes1234]

http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1274839316519358465?s=20

Wow.

It's been a similar scene here in T&T. For the first time in recorded history, air quality dropped to hazardous levels, the lowest possible level. Visibility was just a few hundred metres in some cases, you couldn't even see the mountains at all behind the thick veil of whitish-brown dust. Social media was flooded with pictures and accounts of this unprecedented dust event. Definitely one for the record books.

https://ttweathercenter.com/an-unprecedented-saharan-dust-outbreak-for-tt/

[Shell Mound]

:uarrow: Stupid question as long as I've been here, is the EPS the Euro ensemble?

Yes it is.

What do you think about my thoughts here? Could these factors significantly hamper ATL activity?

[NDG]

SFL about as lucky as you can possibly get.

https://i.imgur.com/6tdRnye.jpg

Yes Orlando, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami metropolitan areas really lucked out over the past four seasons when it came to Matthew, Irma, and Dorian. Though Miami got some decent storm surge from Irma. One of these days our luck will run out!

Orlando? I would put Tampa way before Orlando which is protected inland. Tampa Bay is way overdue for a MH, 99 years since last hit, if hit directly from the SW the storm surge will be catastrophic, it is estimated that over a hundred thousand homes would flood from the storm surge.