Blown Away wrote:Shell Mound wrote:cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/WZXmptX.gif
The key is whether the long-range ensembles will show stronger ridging. Thus far the EPS and the operational EC still look "fishy." What is the likelihood that the models are wrong about the upcoming -NAO and we actually end up with strong instead of weak subtropics ridging? For this system to threaten the Islands or CONUS ridging would need to be stronger than shown on the 00Z run.
IMO, this will be come the first real Major Hurricane threat for NE Caribbean, Bahamas, and E Coast CONUS...
What makes you think so?
I’m talking about the fact that the EPS and GEFS ensembles currently agree on a -NAO and weak Bermuda–Azores High being present in a week. During that timeframe the models show the strong tropical wave departing West Africa, with the strongest EPS/GEFS members showing the AEW exiting farthest north, over or near the Cabo Verde islands, which would almost guarantee an OTS path, barring something like Irma (2017). Early on 2 September both the EPS/GEFS show very thin, weak subtropical ridging extending zonally, allowing a strong system to turn northward early on. We would need to see a drastic shift toward a neutral or positive NAO during the same timeframe in order for this potential system to impact the Islands and/or the CONUS.
