2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

Well, well, signs that the switch is about to flip, eh?

[wxman57]

Still looks like we'll make it another couple of weeks before the next storm forms. Good.

[cycloneye]

Dead MDR from Euro ensembles thru the 11th.

[captainbarbossa19]

Dead MDR from Euro ensembles thru the 11th.

https://i.imgur.com/tqxiVFN.jpg

Meanwhile in the western part of the basin....

[aspen]

Dead MDR from Euro ensembles thru the 11th.

https://i.imgur.com/tqxiVFN.jpg

And just a few days ago, the ensembles were full of MDR members. What happened for such a significant switch flip?

[captainbarbossa19]

Dead MDR from Euro ensembles thru the 11th.

https://i.imgur.com/tqxiVFN.jpg

And just a few days ago, the ensembles were full of MDR members. What happened for such a significant switch flip?

Late July/early August model doldrums.

[Blown Away]

GEFS really starting to show action in the Caribbean/GOM as we move into August. Past few runs the EPAC action not as strong and Atlantic is coming alive in the long range.

[Hurricane Mike]

Still looks like we'll make it another couple of weeks before the next storm forms. Good.

Yeah. Lots of impatient youngin's here.

I've tracked many a hurricane season where you can hiberate until August 20th and not miss much. As a matter of fact, even Hurricane Charley hitting Florida as a Cat 4 on August 13, 2004 was rather early for a storm that powerful.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Still looks like we'll make it another couple of weeks before the next storm forms. Good.

Yeah. Lots of impatient youngin's here.

I've tracked many a hurricane season where you can hiberate until August 20th and not miss much. As a matter of fact, even Hurricane Charley hitting Florida as a Cat 4 on August 13, 2004 was rather early for a storm that powerful.

From my personal experiences with Bob 1991, the Superstorm 1993, the Hybridstorm 2001, Arthur 2014, and by far worst of all Andrew 1992 and those tragedies I've watched unfold from afar such as Katrina 2005, Sandy 2012, Juan 2003, Igor 2010, Dorian 2019, and so many others "I've seen things you people wouldn't believe". This old timer could do with a calm season.



Link: https://youtu.be/ARPCjp0ppEE

[Category5Kaiju]

The 00z GEFS ensembles seem exceptionally aggressive on Gulf development around the August 10 timeframe.

[MHC Tracking]

The 00z GEFS ensembles seem exceptionally aggressive on Gulf development around the August 10 timeframe.

Wouldn't call this "exceptionally aggressive", but it is definitely a change from what we've seen in recent days.

[Blown Away]

The 00z GEFS ensembles seem exceptionally aggressive on Gulf development around the August 10 timeframe.

Wouldn't call this "exceptionally aggressive", but it is definitely a change from what we've seen in recent days.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-07-28-00Z_336_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

This 00z GEFS graphic goes out to 384 hours, yours went to 336 hours. I would say compared to pretty much ever GEFS run this season so far, this 00z GEFS from @336 - 384 hours was exceptionally aggressive, which I know is not saying much so far.

06z running now, so we will see if it's a trend for some Caribbean/GOM action @Aug 10th...

[MHC Tracking]

The 00z GEFS ensembles seem exceptionally aggressive on Gulf development around the August 10 timeframe.

Wouldn't call this "exceptionally aggressive", but it is definitely a change from what we've seen in recent days.
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2022-07-28-00Z_336_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

https://i.imgur.com/2Yy49dL.gif
This 00z GEFS graphic goes out to 384 hours, yours went to 336 hours. I would say compared to pretty much ever GEFS run this season so far, this 00z GEFS from @336 - 384 hours was exceptionally aggressive, which I know is not saying much so far.

06z running now, so we will see if it's a trend for some Caribbean/GOM action @Aug 10th...

Given the location, it looks like a potential instance of convective feedback, as is common with G(E)FS

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS... Caribbean & GOM getting active in long range.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/p85g3fX.gif
06z GEFS... Caribbean & GOM getting active in long range.

It needs to be wrong. It shows a TC hitting my area when I'm going to be moving.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has another EPAC development in medium to long range after it dumps heavy rains in CentralAmerica.

[Blown Away]

12Z GEFS... Much more broad and active in the Caribbean/GOM/FL in the long range

[ronjon]

Long range models starting pick up with a big moisture increase in the western Caribbean /GOM in another week or so. It's like a light switch gets flipped on in the tropics in mid-August.

[Teban54]

Great thread. TL;DR: Possible TCG mid-August in the MDR.
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1552950779899691009

[Category5Kaiju]

GEFS ensembles definitely like the prospect of something brewing in the WCAR or GoM by mid next month.