2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Steve H.]

Yes that wave inside Africa is immense. Covers a few countries

[emeraldislenc]

Yes I agree huge wave over Africa coming off in a few days. I bet we see lemon in a few days!!

[Teban54]

On 0z GFS, the two waves (or two parts of the same wave?) get much closer to each other than 18z in the short term, resulting in interactions and both waves being pulled north, presumably into less favorable conditions. This is unlike the 18z run where the trailing wave is left behind in the MDR and develops on its own.

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS is back to no development for september.

0z Euro has curve north of the islands, then west of Bermuda out to sea track (similar to Erin). 0z Canadian has an early recurve and a developing followup.

Still absolutely no consistency in any of the models.

[Stormlover70]

Hopefully it's not a busy backloaded season..

[StPeteMike]

Hopefully it's not a busy backloaded season..

I’m beginning to think it won’t. There’s been some moments where tropical development was possible and nothing developed.

[Weathertracker96]

The CMC showed a weak storm getting into southern gulf going into south FL

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully it's not a busy backloaded season..

I’m beginning to think it won’t. There’s been some moments where tropical development was possible and nothing developed.

I totally agree with you. 2025 is such a nice breather. Looking at all of the models and future analysis this morning, to me the models don't seem any more bullish than they did at the start of the month

[DunedinDave]

Yeah, even the GFS, who has had a Hurricane in their long range model it seems every run since August has now backed off of anything forming the next couple of weeks. Starting to think this may just be a quiet year. Definitely didn’t expect it.

[MarioProtVI]

Yeah, even the GFS, who has had a Hurricane in their long range model it seems every run since August has now backed off of anything forming the next couple of weeks. Starting to think this may just be a quiet year. Definitely didn’t expect it.

This is moreso just the result of CF on the current AOI which the GFS has been doing lately. I would probably just toss the GFS anyway because it’s been absolutely horrible this year and Mario was the latest example of this. All of the other models still have some activity.

[Stratton23]

This is definitely going to be a back loaded season just maybe not crazy busy, but still a decent amount of activity , keep you’re guards up, model runs will always vary beyond 5-6 days as seen on the GFS lol, but the overall idea is that we probably will have several AOI to track in the coming days, also Milton and Helen are perfect examples of very late season storms that caused devastation in the US, its not over by a long shot

[Weathertracker96]

This is definitely going to be a back loaded season just maybe not crazy busy, but still a decent amount of activity , keep you’re guards up, model runs will always vary beyond 5-6 days as seen on the GFS lol, but the overall idea is that we probably will have several AOI to track in the coming days, also Milton and Helen are perfect examples of very late season storms that caused devastation in the US, its not over by a long shot

I agree. It is best to watch. I don’t how good the cmc is but with it showing something in Caribbean, it’s best to keep an eye out.

[Teban54]

12z GEFS:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z GEFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/T1vDNgr9/gefs-2025-09-13-12-Z-336-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

EPS equally as bullish. I swear if this one busts...

[LarryWx]

Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

Followup: Today’s EW for weeks 2-4 has significantly more ACE than that of the last 6 runs and is the most active for that 3 week period yet with AN/active each week. Whereas the run from 2 days ago had 40 ACE for 9/15-10/12, this new run has 8+16+13.5+10.5=48. It also shows increased risk to the SE US/Gulf 10/6-12.

[mitchell]

Yeah, even the GFS, who has had a Hurricane in their long range model it seems every run since August has now backed off of anything forming the next couple of weeks. Starting to think this may just be a quiet year. Definitely didn’t expect it.

Agree - and true to form the 18Z GFS is back to having a 955 SE of Bermuda 10 days out. Imagine the season we'd be having if even half of the systems the GFS blows up 8-12 days out materialized

[TomballEd]

Like they’ve been showing almost every day for over a week and although they don’t get to above the active avg ACE like they showed 2 weeks ago, the Euro Weeklies still end the below avg ACE starting with the week that begins Sept 22nd. It rises to near the 20 year active avg then and that lasts for the 3 weeks going through Oct 12th. It still has the most active week of the next 4 to be 9/22-28 (with ~13.5 ACE) and the 2nd most active being 9/29-10/5. It’s projecting ~40 ACE 9/15-10/12. That would bring total ACE up to ~80. That would keep season to date ACE well below the active era’s avg of ~103 as of then.

Followup: Today’s EW for weeks 2-4 has significantly more ACE than that of the last 6 runs and is the most active for that 3 week period yet with AN/active each week. Whereas the run from 2 days ago had 40 ACE for 9/15-10/12, this new run has 8+16+13.5+10.5=48. It also shows increased risk to the SE US/Gulf 10/6-12.

Not in my part of the Gulf, and even where it does show a chance, it is the 5-10% flavor. I will say I don't know I've seen the 1 and 2 week weeklies in the basin this high w/o a storm this season. A hurricane that splits the uprights between NC and Bermuda, with some recon, and cool satellite imagery, will have to do my until next season. Still a coin flip on a Caribbean or SW Gulf to Florida system. I have been thinking about Opal for some reason though I expect a possible similar storm will be closer to I/Imelda than O/Olga

A near normal season starting in October means a below average season. I don't know the actual CSU biggest early in season bust, 1997 is the year I remember as a Louisiana resident (oilfield then), but this has to be up there. That season had the excuse of a poorly forecast warm ENSO. I was working on a land rig near Cameron in SW Louisiana for Danny, but the damage in Plaquemines Parish a week after the storm heading to Venice was more than what I thought a Cat 1 could do. I've seen that since IMBY, neighbors tree gave us roof damage (scraped off a bunch of tiles) in what was locally TS Harvey and Beryl cut power for 5 days. Part of that was the local utility seemed to have stopped trimming trees near powerlines for a few years.

[tropicwatch]

The EURO and GFS showing it as a possible depression around the 17-18th.

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eatl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2025091318&fh=6

EURO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=eatl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2025091312&fh=96