TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Frank P]

I agree that looking on the WV loop that the ULL hints of weakening, also convection starting to rebuild on the latest IR loops...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Canelaw99]

I agree that looking on the WV loop that the ULL hints of weakening, also convection starting to rebuild on the latest IR loops...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If you turn on forecast points with that loop, it appears, to my unprofessional eye, that the center is WAY south of the points....anyone else see that, or am I looking at the wrong center of circulation?

[Ivanhater]

yes, new burst of convection taking place

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno. Convection looks really weak right now.

<RICKY>

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Canelaw99]

But it does seem to be gaining a little outflow. Doesn't that usually happen when a storm is starting to get its act together? It is looking slightly weak, convection-wise, but just wondering......

[flashflood]

I think the ULL east of Flroida is collapsing...

I agree, that ULL is fading fast . Also, the parade of ULL's that has been going on the past few weeks has significantly diminished in the Tropical Atlantic, which shows the overall pattern is changing.

[Stratosphere747]

I miss the old days....

[Frank P]

I'm not sure where the center is.... not from the data I have available... not wanting to really guess just yet... however if you go to the following link and click on GOES East Channel 3 WV loop on right side of page you can see what Sanibel was talking about with the weakening ULL...

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

but she's been fighting these same elements for the past several days and is still around, a tough old bird I must admit... I do believe conditions could improve as she moves to the west, the upper low off to the NW hints of weaking and I believe the ridge will build back in, reducing both shear and the dry air.. and continue her on the westard track... then again I could be totally wrong...

[Ivanhater]

i think this is is more up to date

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[johngaltfla]

I think the ULL east of Flroida is collapsing...

That's what our local met just predicted, collapsed in the next 24 hours....

[Sanibel]

Irene has lost convection in a diurnal pulse.


The convection is still located over the LLC. So the next flare-up will either match the last one or be bigger and pull up the winds...

[Hyperstorm]

Yes, the ULL east of Florida has filled in. It started filling in during the morning hours and I thought there was going to be some surface development, but to the contrary, it filled in for dissipation. This indicates that the environment is becoming favorable for Irene to continue to develop and move W-WNW, without any major shifts northward.

Even though Irene looks pitiful tonight convection wise, don't let your guard down. The disturbance is still there with a MLC. Once convection gets going tonight, we'll see further development. If we don't see any development of convection tonight, then we can assume that Irene has weakened so much that development, if any, will be very slow.

Tonight is key...

[wxman57]

The storm is getting more organized, no doubt. The circulation, IMO, is getting embedded in the convection, and though it is small, it is almost infinitely better than yesterday. The question is, where and how strong? Carolinas might get this one as stronger than many might think.
(This is just the opinion of the poster, do not take it for anything official, consult NHC for anything official)

No offense, but I'm curious as to what you are looking at that shows that there even IS a low-level circulation? I stared at high-res visible McIdas imagery all day and could detect no sign of an LLC. And it would be nearly impossible to detect an LLC at night with this type of system. As for the convection, there are only 2 thunderstorms in the entire depression as of now. So since the existence of a circulation is in question, and there is no convection, I could not conclude without a doubt that it is getting better organized. In my professional opinion, Irene has been a wave for nearly 24 hours with no well-defined LLC. That conclusion is suppored by all the available data, including both a 0936 and 2200Z quickscat pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09as.png

Therfore, without an LLC and with extremely limited convection, all I can conclude is that we have a strong tropical wave there which needs to be monitored closely for potential development in a day or two.

Again, I know that the part about having no doubt that it is getting better organized was just your opinion, and you're certainly entitled to an opinion. I was just wondering what facts your opinion was based upon.

[Sanibel]

You could see the surface spiral bands curving into the center all day on visible.

The convection is curved and had a reflection of the LLC displaced by shear.

No way an open wave.

[Ivanhater]

The storm is getting more organized, no doubt. The circulation, IMO, is getting embedded in the convection, and though it is small, it is almost infinitely better than yesterday. The question is, where and how strong? Carolinas might get this one as stronger than many might think.
(This is just the opinion of the poster, do not take it for anything official, consult NHC for anything official)

No offense, but I'm curious as to what you are looking at that shows that there even IS a low-level circulation? I stared at high-res visible McIdas imagery all day and could detect no sign of an LLC. And it would be nearly impossible to detect an LLC at night with this type of system. As for the convection, there are only 2 thunderstorms in the entire depression as of now. So since the existence of a circulation is in question, and there is no convection, I could not conclude without a doubt that it is getting better organized. In my professional opinion, Irene has been a wave for nearly 24 hours with no well-defined LLC. That conclusion is suppored by all the available data, including both a 0936 and 2200Z quickscat pass:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09ds.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 0_09as.png

Therfore, without an LLC and with extremely limited convection, all I can conclude is that we have a strong tropical wave there which needs to be monitored closely for potential development in a day or two.

Again, I know that the part about having no doubt that it is getting better organized was just your opinion, and you're certainly entitled to an opinion. I was just wondering what facts your opinion was based upon.

well you didnt think it was moving west yesterday evening when it clearly was.

[CronkPSU]

i am not sure whether i am suppose to paste this image here or not but here are the spaghetti models for 00z, if i am not, please delete it and leave the link

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png


<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[deltadog03]

its funny how the models still want to push this WNW

[Canelaw99]

Not liking that more westerly curve there......

[CronkPSU]

derek says it is an open wave, that's good enough for me

[Astro_man92]

Yes, the ULL east of Florida has filled in. It started filling in during the morning hours and I thought there was going to be some surface development, but to the contrary, it filled in for dissipation. This indicates that the environment is becoming favorable for Irene to continue to develop and move W-WNW, without any major shifts northward.

Even though Irene looks pitiful tonight convection wise, don't let your guard down. The disturbance is still there with a MLC. Once convection gets going tonight, we'll see further development. If we don't see any development of convection tonight, then we can assume that Irene has weakened so much that development, if any, will be very slow.

Tonight is key...

When you say "Tonight is key" are you saying that tonight is the deciding night to if Irene will develope to a stong hurricane or be gone with the wind.

Oh ya just a sudden thought but if Irene disipats back to a low over night it can still strengthen back to a Tropical storm or so before landfall right?