TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[LarryWx]

The new UKMET (0Z MON) at 144 hours has it some 400 miles further west than its prior run and moving WNW within the Bay of Campeche toward Mexico instead of moving N just north of the Yucatan as per the prior UKMET run. Here is the map:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres two models showing the BOC.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Good night. This storm is to tiring.

Matt

[LarryWx]

The new ECMWF (MON 0Z) has it moving ENE while crossing the extreme southern peninsula of FL on MON 10/24. Prior to the sharp recurve, it was moving WNW over half way across the Yucatan. Here is the map as of 0Z TUE 10/25:

[markymark8]

Good night. This storm is to tiring.

Matt

And...... Looks to be way too much hype. The NHC has it backed down to 110 for this storms peak. Looks like I could be right what I said earlier tonight. The trough might not pick her up and she will wobble around for several days. Its all about timing with every storm. Its not out of the question now it could just fizzle out over the Yucatan if the trough does not dig far enough south and there is weak stearing currents. She could become stationary then over land and go bye byes. This storm might just be too far south for this time of year to get picked up and go in the Gulf. For her to make it in the Gulf she has to have some southwesterley winds to pick her up and move her north. She does look better on ifrared satellite tonight than she has in a long time.

[tampaflwx]

what a difference a few hours makes... most of the models are now forecasting a yucatan hit..rather than west coast of cuba and then into the west coast of florida.

and check out that deep convection right now in the center of the storm! it is most definitely Wilma by now, and i wouldn't be surprised if it is already hurricane by later tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

what a difference a few hours makes... most of the models are now forecasting a yucatan hit..rather than west coast of cuba and then into the west coast of florida.

and check out that deep convection right now in the center of the storm! it is most definitely Wilma by now, and i wouldn't be surprised if it is already hurricane by later tomorrow.

I agree 110 percent!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will eat crow now...Because the Central core has formed. In there is 80 minus convection. There is now way in sam heck this is not a tropical storm right now...But we will have to wait intill recon. The Gfdl bombs it into a 121 knot storm. In it could fellow it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Here she blows!!!!

[superfly]

The convection is not over the center, it's displaced to the SW. That said, I agree TS force winds are probably in there.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is looking more and more like a Mexico storm. All of the models are now becoming more tightly clustered and ALL show it crossing into the Yukatan mainland and into southern BOC. I expect the track to be shifted quite a bit west by morning. While I don't wish a landfall on anyone. At least crossing land will enable it to weaken prior to hitting Mexico. Check out the latest model plots. HUGE shift west....While I know it's early, over the last year the models have been right on whenever tightly clustered at a landfall point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[JamesFromMaine2]

This is looking more and more like a Mexico storm. All of the models are now becoming more tightly clustered and ALL show it crossing into the Yukatan mainland and into southern BOC. I expect the track to be shifted quite a bit west by morning. While I don't wish a landfall on anyone. At least crossing land will enable it to weaken prior to hitting Mexico. Check out the latest model plots. HUGE shift west....While I know it's early, over the last year the models have been right on whenever tightly clustered at a landfall point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

If you look at them you would see that they aren't anything new from what they were last night accpet for the Bamm model which was run at 2am this morning all the rest of the models were from runs yesterday during the day!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TPNT KGWC 170620
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
B. 17/0531Z (110)
C. 16.5N/2
D. 80.6W/4
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T2.5/2.5/STT: D1.0/13HRS -17/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...PT YIELDS 2.0.

AODT: T2.5 (IRREG CDO)

CAMPBELL/ALEXANDER

[TheEuropean]

now it is WIIILLMAA...

[Thunder44]

The center doesn't look exposed it is on the north side of convection. And the track has not been shifted much further west either.

[Scorpion]

Euro still maintains its solution. I wouldn't jump on the Mexico solution just yet.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Euro still maintains its solution. I wouldn't jump on the Mexico solution just yet.

I will go with whatever the NHC is going with and they have no where that it will hit Mexico accept that it might skim the Yucatane

[krysof]

its quite uncertain about where its going to go because they don't know if the shortwave will dig deep enough to pick it up

[Scorpion]

its quite uncertain about where its going to go because they don't know if the shortwave will dig deep enough to pick it up

Exactly. The EURO and the CMC are the only ones which indicate the trough correctly, and they both take it to Florida. So we shall see.

[HURAKAN]

She is very deep!

[JamesFromMaine2]

It will be interesting to see where recon finds the center this afternoon! I am wondering if it might be under the deep convection now but I guess I will just have to wait and see! lol