Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[otowntiger]

Gfs not good for FL - back to back majors- but of course a lot can change- especially for the second one in long range. Btw- what’s up with The Euro run on Tropical tidbits? It keeps show the halfway run from midday yesterday. Doesn’t seem to updating can’t tell what it’s showing now.

[jlauderdal]

Easy trend continues with still 5-6 days before this even becomes a threat to anyone.

https://i.postimg.cc/BQLMZQfH/IMG-9460.gif

getting concerned here in Pasco County.

And folks between Pensacola and Biloxi should equally be concerned if they follow the EURO members. So now, which model is going to be more accurate?

We can't discount the Euro completely, but what we do know is that it had a westerly solution and now has moved significantly to the east, playing catch up with the other guidance. Watch the trends and it has been significantly east the last 24 hours. Apalachicola to Sarasota, I moved my goal posts in on the east and west sides.

[Stormlover70]

Gfs not good for FL - back to back majors- but of course a lot can change- especially for the second one in long range. Btw- what’s up with The Euro run on Tropical tidbits? It keeps show the halfway run from midday yesterday. Doesn’t seem to updating can’t tell what it’s showing now.

link to long range gfs?

[otowntiger]

Gfs not good for FL - back to back majors- but of course a lot can change- especially for the second one in long range. Btw- what’s up with The Euro run on Tropical tidbits? It keeps show the halfway run from midday yesterday. Doesn’t seem to updating can’t tell what it’s showing now.

link to long range gfs?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92118&fh=6

[ThunderForce]

Looks like the GFS caved to the Euro and CMC. The storm is quite a bit west on the 06z run, with the trough's progression being closer to those two models than the previous GFS run.

EDIT: Makes landfall as a 961 MB hurricane in Walton County, FL.

[Stormlover70]

Gfs not good for FL - back to back majors- but of course a lot can change- especially for the second one in long range. Btw- what’s up with The Euro run on Tropical tidbits? It keeps show the halfway run from midday yesterday. Doesn’t seem to updating can’t tell what it’s showing now.

link to long range gfs?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92118&fh=6

wow!

[otowntiger]

Latest GFS windshield wipering way west- between Pensacola and Panama City, lol! So much for easterly ‘trends’ lol! . But I do understand these wild swings in location and intensity in model runs to be like this until there is a consolidated center to actually track. The next run may show central Texas, and then the next could show South FL for all I know, which isn’t much less than the models at this time.

[ThunderForce]

What's bad is that the GFS has this making landfall by sometime during the evening/night on the 26th on forecast hour 114. It seems to start organizing into a TD/TS on the 24th.

06z GFS has formation into a TD/TS only 2 days away, and landfall as a hurricane only 4 days away. Assuming NHC waits until it organizes into a TD to designate it in some capacity, and it goes like the current GFS is showing, people will have very little time and notice to prepare/evacuate.

[jlauderdal]

Latest GFS windshield wipering way west- between Pensacola and Panama City, lol! So much for easterly ‘trends’ lol!

Lets see if this is a trend or just a one off.

[Stratton23]

GFS shifted west because it now cuts off the trough instead of just progressing eastward, it cuts off and dives to the SW, allowing a little more of a ridge to build off the se US ,

[Ivanhater]

Well shoot. Euro, GFS and CMC liking northwest Florida currently. Hopefully today they will change somewhere else

[Nimbus]

GFS shifted west because it now cuts off the trough instead of just progressing eastward, it cuts off and dives to the SW, allowing a little more of a ridge to build off the se US ,

Stronger ridging this run but other than taking the time to look, I don't think this can qualify as a trend till all the models show the same evolution. LLC position is still unknown, the surface pressure yoyo'd again south of Jamaica but no circulation yet, just the shear induced convection as the high builds over the area.

[Weathertracker96]

The 06 GEFS ensembles looks more east over the peninsula of FL. Definitely need to see where the center forms and watch the trough progression

[mantis83]

Well shoot. Euro, GFS and CMC liking northwest Florida currently. Hopefully today they will change somewhere else

yeah not looking good for your area at this time, things could change but models seem to be honing in.......

[underthwx]

Lets hope for a dud.....hopefully tha forces of nature will be kind....

[gatorcane]

The 06 GEFS ensembles looks more east over the peninsula of FL. Definitely need to see where the center forms and watch the trough progression

Saved looped, lots turning this NE into the FL peninsula:

[cycloneye]

This area just east of Nicaragua is the one to watch for consolidation and to form a low pressure.

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

You nailed it. This thread has the new record for more posts for a pre invest area surpassing the 1075 number of posts from the pre Francine thread.

[gatorcane]

Huge shift east by the UKMET, eventually landfalls near Cedar Key:

[xironman]

This area just east of Nicaragua is the one to watch for consolidation and to form a low pressure.

https://i.imgur.com/jgkHuP8.gif

Oh boy, here we go...

I have a feeling this will be quite the thread.

You nailed it. This thread has the new record for more posts for a pre invest area surpassing the 1075 number of posts from the pre Francine thread.

I was about to post the same area. Surprised no invest yet.

[eastcoastFL]

What's bad is that the GFS has this making landfall by sometime during the evening/night on the 26th on forecast hour 114. It seems to start organizing into a TD/TS on the 24th.

06z GFS has formation into a TD/TS only 2 days away, and landfall as a hurricane only 4 days away. Assuming NHC waits until it organizes into a TD to designate it in some capacity, and it goes like the current GFS is showing, people will have very little time and notice to prepare/evacuate.

Lead time is going to be a major issue here if this pans out. I imagine they'll slap a PTC on the board as soon as they possibly can. But the first advisory is probably going to already be in the 3 day forecast cone for landfall.