TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[tampaflwx]

is it possible that, after the storm crosses over the yucatan and enters the central gulf, a front will dig into the GOM and completely push the storm east back over to west florida (not to predict a landfall, but say in the Tampa region just to convey my question)...or would the farthest east be the florida panhandle

[Scorpion]

is it possible that, after the storm crosses over the yucatan and enters the central gulf, a front will dig into the GOM and completely push the storm east back over to west florida (not to predict a landfall, but say in the Tampa region just to convey my question)...or would the farthest east be the florida panhandle

Yes, something that the Euro depicts.

[Cookiely]

Oct 17, 2005

Bay Area Warned To Watch Out For Wilma
By JULIE PACE
jpace@tampatrib.com



TAMPA - -- With a tropical depression gathering strength in the Caribbean, forecasters at the National Weather Service have some advice for Bay area residents.

"Don't put your hurricane kits away," meteorologist Barry Goldsmith said. "If anything, restock them."

Conditions are right for the depression to turn into Tropical Storm Wilma by this morning and upgrade to a hurricane this week, Goldsmith said.

Wilma would be the 21st named storm of the season, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season.

The only other time so many storms have formed since record-keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933.

At 5 p.m. Sunday, the depression was 195 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. The storm was moving about 3 mph, but Goldsmith said the slow mover will gain strength from the warm waters of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, where temperatures are in the upper 80s.

Long-term forecasts show the storm moving north into the Gulf of Mexico, west of Cuba, by Friday.

Goldsmith said there are no definitive predictions of where it will go from there, but the presence of a westerly shear could mean bad news for the Bay area. Though the shear probably will keep the storm from turning into a Category 4 or 5, it also will push it east, toward Florida's west coast.

"Does Florida have a shot at this one? You betcha," Goldsmith said.

A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands on Sunday, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there by today. A tropical storm warning also was posted for the islands.

The depression is expected to bring four to six inches of rain to the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 12 inches possible in some areas, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said.

October and November are historically busy months for storms in the Gulf unless an early cold front moves in and cools the water.

Does Goldsmith expect that to happen any time soon?

"Not before Wilma decides what it wants to do," he said.

Although there is no other tropical activity, Goldsmith said, the warm water makes conditions ripe for at least one more named storm to form before hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

Wilma is the last on the list of storm names for 2005; 21 names are on the yearly list because those beginning with the letters q, u, x, y and z are omitted. If any other storms form, letters from the Greek alphabet would be used, starting with alpha. That has never happened in about 60 years of regularly named Atlantic storms.



This story can be found at: http://www.tampatrib.com/MGB45072WEE.html

[tampaflwx]

i just checked out the CMC...it has a big storm over tampa bay in 4-5 days, but that seems a bit fast, dont you think? that cant possibly be correct....this storm is all the way in the southwest caribbean and not even moving WNW yet

[Bgator]

Well, Great 5am discussion showing that most models have not picked up on that trof, if the trof does end up being like the CMC or ECMWF predicts expect a BIG turn to the right today in forecast models!

[krysof]

the 6z gfs seems to be picking up at the idea of the trough again, and it has the storm just to the east of the Yucatan and it hits the Florida Peninsula

[Cookiely]

I think the Tampa Tribune reporter wrote that article before Wilma decided to take a little southerly stroll. Is it just me or have most of the storms been complex this year. It doesn't seem like many have had clear cut forecasts by the models this year from the get go.

[cycloneye]

Ok now the thread will be locked and a brand new Wilma one will be created.